The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for September 2-6, 2024

The first week of September is packed with high-impact economic events, including key data releases that could significantly influence market dynamics. Highlights include Switzerland’s CPI, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Canada’s employment figures. Most notably, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, a critical indicator of labor market health, will be closely watched as it has the potential to drive significant market movements. These releases will provide crucial insights into economic trends and central bank policy decisions, likely affecting currency valuations and broader market sentiment.

Tuesday 09:30 am (GMT+3) – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)
Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Wednesday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: GDP q/q (AUD)
Wednesday 16:45 (GMT+3) – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)
Wednesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)
Thursday 15:15 (GMT+3) – USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Thursday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)
Thursday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Nonfarm Payrolls (USD)
Friday 17:00 (GMT+3): Canada: Ivey PMI (CAD)

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the changes in the prices of goods and services that reflect the spending habits of private households in Switzerland. It shows how much consumers need to adjust their spending to maintain the same level of consumption despite price fluctuations.

In July 2024, Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.2% from the previous month, with the index at 107.5 points. Annual inflation was 1.3%. The decline was mainly due to lower prices for international package holidays, air transport, and seasonal sales of clothing and footwear, while prices rose for supplementary accommodation, vegetables, and private transport hire.

Analysts predict a slight increase of 0.1% for the upcoming release.

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

In July 2024, the US manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month, with the PMI falling to 46.8%. Key indicators like new orders, production, and employment declined, reflecting weak demand and economic uncertainty.

Analysts predict a 48.6% reading for this week’s Manufacturing PMI.

04:30 am – Australia: GDP q/q (AUD)

The total market value of all goods and services produced within Australia during a specific time period is known as the GDP.

Australia’s GDP grew by 0.1% in Q1 2024, driven by increased consumer spending while investment declined. The household saving rate fell to 0.9%, with mixed industry performance and a slight 0.2% rise in terms of trade.

Economists see a 0.6% increase for the second quarter.

16:45 – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)

The Bank of Canada uses the target for the overnight rate, also known as the policy interest rate, to control inflation. This rate influences other interest rates in the economy, affecting loans, mortgages, and savings. The Bank adjusts this rate to either stimulate economic growth by lowering it (encouraging spending) or to curb inflation by raising it (encouraging saving). The target rate is part of the Bank’s broader strategy to maintain economic stability.

The Bank of Canada cut its interest rate to 4.5% in July as inflation eased. Despite weak spending and rising unemployment, GDP growth is expected to improve later in 2024, driven by exports and recovering household spending. The rate cut aligns with the Bank’s goal to bring inflation closer to 2%.

Economists anticipate a 25 basis points rate cut, bringing the interest rate down to 4.25%.

17:00 – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

It’s a monthly report based on employers’ surveys, indicating job vacancies in the US commercial, industrial, and office areas, excluding the farming industry. Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In June 2024, US job openings remained at 8.2 million, with stable hires and separations. The quits rate held at 2.1%. Job openings rose in accommodation and food services but fell in durable goods manufacturing and the federal government.

Economists estimate a slight decrease in August job openings to 7.876 million.

15:15 – USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

It tracks the monthly change in employment across 19 manufacturing sectors in the US, excluding the agriculture and government sectors.
Employment growth may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In July 2024, the private sector added 122,000 jobs, with annual pay rising 4.8%, the slowest growth in three years. Most job gains occurred in service sectors and large companies, while small businesses saw a slight decline in employment. The slowing pay growth suggests a cooling labor market in line with inflation management efforts.

Economists project that the private sector will add 121,000 jobs.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

For the week ending August 17, 2024, US initial unemployment claims rose by 4,000 to 232,000, with the four-week average slightly decreasing to 236,000. The insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.2%, with 1.863 million receiving benefits. Despite fluctuations, the labor market remains stable compared to the previous year.

Analysts are anticipating 232,000 unemployment claims for the upcoming data release.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

The ISM Services PMI measures activity in the US service sector for the reporting month. It is derived from a survey of supply executives in the services sector. Readings above 50 can have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In July 2024, the Services PMI rose to 51.4%, indicating sector growth after June’s brief contraction. Key indices improved, with Business Activity at 54.5%, New Orders at 52.4%, and Employment at 51.1%. Supplier Deliveries fell to 47.6%, reflecting faster delivery times. The sector has expanded 47 times in 50 months, showing resilience despite higher costs.

Economists expect that the Services PMI will edge higher to 51.7%.

17:00 – USA: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USD)

The Crude Oil Stocks Change indicator is published weekly by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). It gauges the volume (barrels) of commercial crude oil held by US companies, influencing global oil prices. Increasing stocks signal reduced oil demand, potentially leading to a decline in oil prices.

In the week ending August 16, 2024, US refineries operated at 92.3% capacity, with crude oil inputs at 16.7 million barrels per day. Crude imports rose to 6.7 million barrels per day, while crude and petroleum inventories fell below five-year averages, dropping by 5.9 million barrels overall. Total products supplied decreased by 2.3% compared to last year.

Analysts expect that Crude Oil inventories will drop by 2.9 million barrels.

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Change in the number of employed individuals in the previous month. Generally, when the actual figure is greater than the forecast, it is positive for the currency.

In July, employment in Canada remained relatively unchanged, with a slight decrease of 2,800 jobs and an employment rate drop of 0.2 percentage points to 60.9%. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.4%.

Analysts expect 8,000 new jobs will be added in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 6.3%.

15:30 – USA: Nonfarm Payrolls (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report shows the number of new jobs added in the US across all non-agricultural sectors for a given month. An increase in this indicator can positively impact the value of the dollar.

In July 2024, the US unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and nonfarm payroll employment increased by 114,000 jobs, with slower job growth compared to previous months. Employment gains were seen in health care, construction, transportation, and warehousing, while the information sector lost jobs. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% to $35.07, and the average workweek slightly decreased to 34.2 hours.

Analysts project an increase of 104,000 in nonfarm jobs and unemployment remaining at 4.2%.

17:00 – Canada: Ivey PMI (CAD)

The Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity of purchasing managers in Canada, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. It’s closely watched as a leading indicator of economic performance. A higher-than-expected reading is positive for the CAD, while a lower reading is negative. Last Ivey PMI reading came in at 57.6, below the forecast of 60.0.

Economists expect a slight improvement in the upcoming release, with a reading of 57.9.

Wednesday, September 4: HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company)
Thursday, September 5: AVGO (Broadcom Inc.)
Thursday, September 5: DOCU (DocuSign Inc.)