12 Jun 2024 | FXGT.com
Oil Prices Climb on Revised Demand Forecasts and Inventory Declines
- Oil Prices Rise Amid Positive Demand Forecasts: Oil prices continued to increase on Wednesday, supported by upbeat global demand projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC, alongside industry data showing a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude oil inventories.
- EIA and OPEC Demand Forecasts: The EIA revised its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.10 million barrels per day, up from a previous estimate of 900,000 bpd. OPEC maintained its forecast for strong growth in global oil demand for 2024, driven by expectations of increased travel and tourism in the second half of the year.
- Market Reaction to OPEC’s Production Cuts: Prices had declined by 4% last Monday after OPEC and its allies announced they would phase out output cuts starting in October. However, OPEC’s forecast for strengthening demand suggests the market should easily absorb the phased-out cuts, particularly driven by demand from China and other emerging economies.
- US Crude Oil Inventories: U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 2.428 million barrels for the week ending June 7, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API). This decline was larger than the 1.75-million-barrel draw expected. Official data from the EIA is expected later today.
- Upcoming Economic Data: Investors are waiting for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, both due later today. A dovish stance from the Fed could support oil prices by stimulating economic growth and boosting demand. However, long-term concerns about a global economic slowdown remain a potential bearish factor.
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