The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has raised its benchmark interest rate to around 0.25%, up from the previous range of 0 to 0.1%. In addition, the BOJ plans to reduce its monthly bond purchase amount to about ¥3 trillion by the first quarter of 2026, roughly half the current pace of bond buying. The USDJPY shows high volatility, with a 16-week streak of reaching lower lows. At the time of writing, the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen is 152.840.
High Impact Economic Events
Wednesday 06:30 (GMT+0) – Japan: BoJ Press Conference (JPY)
Wednesday 12:15 (GMT+0) – USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)
Wednesday 12:30 (GMT+0) – Canada: GDP y/y (CAD)
Wednesday 14:00 (GMT+0) – USA: Pending Home Sales m/m (USD)
Wednesday 18:00 (GMT+0) – USA: Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)
Wednesday 18:30(GMT+0) – USA: FOMC Press Conference (USD)
Thursday 11:00(GMT+0) – UK: BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP)
Thursday 14:00 am (GMT+0) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Friday 12:30 am (GMT+0) – USA: Nonfarm Payrolls (USD)
Chart Analysis

The USDJPY has been on a downtrend since July 3, when the price broke below the key support at 160.256, indicating a bearish reversal pattern. Specifically, the peak at 161.800 failed to surpass the previous peak of 161.944. Subsequently, prices dropped below the 160.256 mark, signaling a bearish reversal known as a “failure swing” in technical analysis. As the downtrend gained momentum, a Double Crossover appeared on the price chart, adding to the downward pressure. In particular, on July 26, a Death Cross occurred when the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages crossed, leading to prices falling below their corresponding dynamic trendlines.
Additionally, the Momentum oscillator indicates a bearish bias for the USDJPY as it is recording values below its 100 baseline. In addition, the Relative Strength Index has moved into the oversold area below 30, signaling a potential reversal to the upside.
Key Resistance Levels
Should the buyers seize market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
155.211: The primary resistance level is observed at 155.211, corresponding to the swing high noted on July 30.
157.983: The second resistance level is set at 157.983, calculated as the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the decline from 161.944 to 151.575.
160.256: The third resistance level, 160.256, represents the trough of the failure swing, which occurred on July 8.
161.944: The fourth resistance is 161.944, which represents the peak formed on July 3.
Key Support Levels
Should the sellers maintain market control, traders may consider the three potential support levels listed below:
151.575: The primary downside target is established at 151.575, reflecting the daily low recorded on July 31.
149.933: The second level of support is 149.933, estimated as the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension between the swing low at 151.934 and the swing high at 155.211.
146.696: The third support line is identified at 146.696, calculated as the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension of the latest swing.
Conclusion
The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates and halve its bond purchases highlights a significant policy shift. The USDJPY exchange rate has exhibited considerable volatility, reflecting broader economic uncertainties. As the market reacts to these developments, traders will need to monitor key resistance and support levels. Key economic events will further influence market movements and investor sentiment in the coming days. The technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for USDJPY.