This week’s high-impact economic events, including central bank decisions and employment data, could drive market volatility. EURJPY maintains a strong bullish trend, with key resistance and support levels in focus.
Fundamentally, the Bank of Japan kept rates steady, while global investors are shifting towards UK and Eurozone equities amid US trade war fears. Market sentiment remains cautious, with upcoming data releases set to influence price movements.
High Impact Economic Events
Wednesday 04:25 am (GMT+2) – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)
Wednesday 20:00 (GMT+2) – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)
Wednesday 23:45 (GMT+2) – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)
Thursday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Employment Change(AUD)
Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)
Thursday 14:00 (GMT+2) – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)
The EURJPY currency pair has maintained a distinct upward trajectory since reaching a low of 154.783 on February 28, characterized by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The initial indication of weakening bearish pressure emerged with the formation of a Long-Legged Doji candlestick, reflecting hesitation among sellers to drive prices lower.
A subsequent non-failure swing reversal pattern further affirmed the bullish outlook, as the trough at 154.783 extended below its predecessor before a decisive breakout above 161.180. This structural shift was complemented by the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossing above the 50-period EMA—a Golden Cross—reinforcing the prevailing bullish sentiment.
Momentum indicators continue to support this constructive bias. The Momentum Oscillator remains above the critical 100 threshold, signaling persistent buying interest, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 50, indicative of sustained upside momentum. These factors collectively suggest that bullish pressures remain intact, with the potential for further price appreciation.
Key Resistance Levels
Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
164.539: The initial resistance level is established at 164.539, which mirrors the peak marked on March 17.
165.108: The second price target is set at 165.108, reflecting the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the high point, 161.180, to the low point, 154.783.
166.669: The third price objective is observed at 166.669, corresponding to the high reached on October 31.
171.664: An additional upside target is projected at 171.664, mirroring the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the high point, 161.180, to the low point, 154.783.
Key Support Levels
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
161.180: The initial support level is seen at 161.180, corresponding to the peak marked February 13.
159.557: The second support level is estimated at 159.557, representing the weekly support, S1, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
158.881: The third support level is identified at 158.881, reflecting the trough from March 10.
157.486: An additional downside target is 157.486, mirroring the weekly support, S2, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
Fundamentals
The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate at 0.5% in March after three hikes, focusing on global risks like US tariffs. While policymakers expect above-potential growth, they noted some economic weaknesses. Traders await BOJ Governor Ueda’s comments for further direction. Meanwhile, Japan’s industrial production fell 1.1% in January, and manufacturing sentiment turned negative in March due to external uncertainties. On the trade front, Japan posted a surplus in February, driven by strong exports. Markets reacted positively, with the Nikkei 225 rising above 38,000, while the yen weakened for a fourth consecutive session, trading near 149.5 per dollar.
On the other hand, global investors have significantly increased their exposure to UK and Eurozone equities, with allocations to European stocks reaching their highest level since 2021, according to Bank of America’s latest survey. Meanwhile, US equity allocations saw their steepest decline on record, driven by fears of a trade war linked to President Trump’s tariff policies. Concerns over global economic weakness have surged, with 63% of fund managers anticipating a slowdown and rising inflation, effectively signaling a stagflationary outlook. In response, cash holdings among investors have jumped, reflecting a more cautious stance amid growing uncertainty.
Conclusion
With key economic events unfolding, market participants will be closely watching central bank decisions, employment data, and trade developments for directional cues. EURJPY remains in a bullish phase, supported by strong momentum and technical signals, while global equities are seeing a shift in investor sentiment. The BOJ’s policy stance and rising concerns over a potential trade war continue to shape market outlooks. As economic uncertainty lingers, upcoming data releases will be critical in determining future market trends.
Disclaimer: Any material and information included herein are intended for general marketing purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendation nor an invitation to acquire any financial instrument and/or be involved in any financial transaction. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his investment decisions and if considers appropriate, he should seek relevant independent professional advice before making any decision. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Please read full Non-Independent Investment Research Disclaimer here.
Risk Disclosure: CFDs are complex instruments and carry a high level of risk of losing money. Read full Risk Disclosure here .
We use cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website.
By clicking ‘Agree,’ you accept our use of cookies as outlined in our cookies policy
Leveraged products may not be suitable for everyone and may result in loss of all your capital. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and whether trading is appropriate for you. Read Full Risk Disclosure here.
