ECB’s Rate Path Dilemma: Synchronize with Fed or Diverge? Spotlight On Key Support at $1.07

• ECB Meeting in Focus: Today’s ECB meeting is closely watched, with market consensus leaning towards a June rate cut announcement by the European Central Bank. This anticipated move could further pressure EUR/USD, especially against the backdrop of the Fed’s potential delay in cutting rates due to inflation concerns.

• EUR/USD Trading Below Key Averages: The currency pair is trading below key moving averages across timeframes, signalling persistent bearish momentum. It is approaching a critical support level at $1.07, a key threshold that has provided substantial support over the past five months, including significant moments in December 2023 and February 2024.

• Importance of $1.07 Support Level: The $1.07 level serves as a vital support, with a potential breach below this mark indicating the beginning of a new downward trend. Should this level give way, the next significant support is identified at $1.05, a level that was resilient in October 2023.

• Interest Rate Differential Impact: Market expectations of an ECB rate cut in June, contrasted with the Fed’s unchanged rate stance, could widen the interest rate differential between the euro and the dollar, potentially driving EUR/USD below the $1.07 mark and fostering a continued downtrend.

• Impact of Mirroring Fed’s Approach: Should the ECB decide to delay rate cuts, mirroring the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, the $1.07 level could emerge as a strong support zone and act as a catalyst for renewed buying interest among traders, anticipating a shift back to the recent trading range. By aligning with the Fed’s strategy and holding off on immediate rate cuts, the ECB could stabilize the EUR/USD pair, encouraging a recovery.

• ECB Press Conference Key for Future Direction: The ECB’s post-meeting press conference will be crucial in determining EUR/USD’s direction. The remarks and tone adopted by Christine Lagarde during the press conference will be scrutinized for hints about the ECB’s future monetary policy direction.

EURUSD Daily Chart

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