The upcoming Nonfarm Employment Change report, scheduled for release at 15:30 (GMT+3) on Friday, is a key event that could drive significant market volatility, particularly for the EURUSD pair. As the US labor market data unfolds, traders will be closely monitoring for signs of economic strength or weakness, which could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions regarding interest rates. In the lead-up to this event, the EURUSD has been trading within a tight range, and technical indicators point to growing bearish momentum. The results of the jobs report could provide the catalyst for a breakout from this range.
High Impact Economic Events
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)
Chart Analysis

The EURUSD has been trading within a well-defined range, with resistance at 1.1200 and support at 1.10007. Despite briefly testing above the resistance level, the pair failed to secure a daily close above 1.1200, leaving the breakout unconfirmed. A decisive close below the 1.10007 support level could signal the onset of a bearish trend.
From a technical perspective, the pair has slipped below both the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), while the Momentum oscillator has crossed under the 100-line, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50. These indicators suggest growing bearish pressure. However, the 20-period EMA has yet to cross below the 50-period EMA, indicating that confirmation of a sustained downtrend is still pending.
Key Resistance Levels
Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
1.12000: The initial resistance is set at 1.12000, corresponding to the swing high marked August 23.
1.12747: The second price target is seen at 1.12747, aligning with a weekly high from July 16
1.13265: The third price objective is projected at 1.13265, corresponding to the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing high of 1.12000 to the swing low of 1.10007.
1.15316: An additional price target is established at 1.15316, representing the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing high of 1.12000 to the swing low of 1.10007.
Key Support Levels
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
1.10007: The initial support level is established at 1.10007, reflecting the swing low marked September 11.
1.08695: The second support level is identified at 1.08695, representing the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low of 1.10007 to the swing high of 1.12000.
1.07764: The third support level is seen at 1.07764, corresponding to a daily low from August 1.
1.06572: An additional downside target is noted at 1.06572, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low of 1.10007 to the swing high of 1.12000.
Fundamentals
The September jobs report is anticipated to mirror August’s trends, showing a continued slowdown in hiring and a moderate rise in wages. Nonfarm payrolls are projected to increase by 150,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Wage growth is expected at 0.3% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, matching August’s rate.
The data could indicate whether the Federal Reserve can continue easing interest rates without urgency. However, market uncertainty persists due to potential revisions in the data and external factors, such as the recent dock workers’ strike and Hurricane Helene.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the upcoming Nonfarm Employment Change report is poised to be a pivotal event for the EURUSD pair, as it could trigger significant market volatility. The technical indicators suggest growing bearish pressure, and the pair’s tight trading range signals the potential for a breakout, depending on the report’s outcome. The labor market data will be closely analyzed for clues on future Federal Reserve actions, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments. With uncertainties surrounding the broader economic landscape, including potential revisions and external disruptions, the jobs report could play a crucial role in shaping near-term market direction.