Investors head into the second half of the week navigating heightened volatility, driven by escalating trade tensions and a busy economic calendar. President Trump’s surprise announcement of sweeping tariffs has rattled global markets, amplifying fears of a trade war and adding fresh downside pressure to risk assets. As the S&P 500 continues to trend lower, key technical levels are under scrutiny amid a fragile macro backdrop.
This week’s high-impact economic events—including U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, ISM Services PMI, and unemployment claims—will be closely watched for signs of labor market resilience and broader economic momentum. Switzerland’s CPI and Canada’s employment data also add to the fundamental mix, potentially influencing currency and equity market flows.
With the S&P 500 trading below key moving averages and momentum indicators flashing caution, traders should remain alert to both macro-driven volatility and technical inflection points.
High Impact Economic Events
Thursday 09:30 am (GMT+3) – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)
The S&P 500 has maintained a clearly defined downtrend since peaking at 6149.50 on February 19, characterized by a consistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows—hallmarks of sustained bearish momentum. The index found temporary support at 5506.57 on March 13, where a brief recovery lifted prices above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a short-term reduction in selling pressure and increased investor indecision.
However, the rebound lacked follow-through, underscoring the bulls’ inability to sustain upward traction. The subsequent pullback keeps the index trading below both the 20- and 50-period EMAs, reinforcing the prevailing bearish tone. A decisive breach of 5506.57 will open the way for further decline.
Momentum indicators are aligned with this bearish backdrop. The Momentum Oscillator remains below the 100 mark, indicating continued downside bias, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds beneath the neutral 50 level, confirming ongoing negative momentum.
That said, a developing positive divergence between the Momentum Oscillator and price action may warrant attention. While the broader trend remains to the downside, this divergence introduces the potential for a corrective rebound in the near term.
Key Resistance Levels
Should the buyers take market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
5711.77: The initial resistance level is established at 5711.77, which mirrors the weekly resistance, R1, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
5788.72: The second price target is set at 5788.72, reflecting the peak formed on March 26.
5910.24: The third price objective is observed at 5910.24, corresponding to the trough marked February 3.
6149.50: An additional upside target is projected at 6149.50, mirroring the daily high formed on February 19.
Key Support Levels
Should the sellers maintain market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
5492.26: The initial support level is seen at 5492.26, corresponding to the trough marked March 31.
5403.99: The second support level is estimated at 5403.99, representing the weekly support, S2, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
5332.36: The third support level is identified at 5332.36, reflecting the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the low point, 5506.57, to the high point, 5788.72.
5250.09: An additional downside target is 5250.09, mirroring the weekly support, S3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
Fundamentals
U.S. stock futures plunged Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs, sparking fears of a global trade war. The new policy imposes a baseline 10% tariff on all countries starting April 5, with much higher rates for key trading partners like China (54%), Vietnam (46%), and India (26%).
Markets had expected a softer, more uniform approach; instead, the announcement triggered sharp declines across multinational stocks, tech shares, and consumer goods companies. Analysts warn the move could push the S&P 500 deeper into correction territory and stoke inflationary pressures, with volatility likely to persist as global retaliation and economic impacts unfold.
Conclusion
As markets digest a volatile mix of geopolitical shocks and critical economic data, risk sentiment remains fragile. President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement has amplified fears of a global trade war, compounding downside pressure on equities and raising concerns over inflation and earnings growth. The S&P 500 remains technically vulnerable, with price action locked in a bearish structure and momentum indicators showing continued weakness. With key economic releases—including U.S. labor data and international inflation prints—set to test investor confidence further, traders should remain cautious. While a short-term rebound is possible, the broader trend remains under strain amid persistent macro and policy-driven headwinds.
Disclaimer: Any material and information included herein are intended for general marketing purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendation nor an invitation to acquire any financial instrument and/or be involved in any financial transaction. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his investment decisions and if considers appropriate, he should seek relevant independent professional advice before making any decision. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances or needs. Please read full Non-Independent Investment Research Disclaimer here.
Risk Disclosure: CFDs are complex instruments and carry a high level of risk of losing money. Read full Risk Disclosure here .
We use cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website.
By clicking ‘Agree,’ you accept our use of cookies as outlined in our cookies policy
Leveraged products may not be suitable for everyone and may result in loss of all your capital. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and whether trading is appropriate for you. Read Full Risk Disclosure here.
