Gold continues to command market attention as it trades near record highs, buoyed by a potent mix of technical strength and macroeconomic uncertainty. With key economic releases scheduled for Friday—including UK Retail Sales, Canadian GDP, and the U.S. Core PCE Price Index—market participants will be closely monitoring incoming data for further cues on inflation dynamics, growth prospects, and central bank policy direction. Against this backdrop, both technical signals and fundamental tailwinds are setting the stage for potentially heightened volatility in precious metals.
High Impact Economic Events
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Since rebounding from its November 2024 low of $2,536.59, Gold has established a sustained uptrend marked by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The rally has been underpinned by a combination of technical and fundamental drivers.
From a technical standpoint, momentum has been reinforced by a bullish failure swing reversal and the formation of a “Golden Cross”—where the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed above the 50-period EMA—signaling a strengthening bullish bias.
The precious metal has since registered a series of record highs, including today’s all-time high of $3,083.20 per troy ounce.
Key indicators continue to support a constructive near-term outlook. The Momentum oscillator remains firmly above the 100 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding above 50—both suggesting continued upward momentum.
Key Resistance Levels
If buyers maintain control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
3093.13: The initial resistance level is estimated at 3093.13, mirroring the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 3057.32 to 2999.38.
3134.99: The second price target is seen at 3134.99, reflecting the weekly resistance, R3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
3151.07: The third price target is established at 3151.07, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 3057.32 to 2999.38.
3244.81: An additional price objective is estimated at 3244.81, representing the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 3057.32 to 2999.38.
Key Support Levels
If sellers take control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
2999.38: The initial support level is seen at 2999.38, representing the swing low from March 21.
2956.10: The second support level is positioned at 2956.10, aligning with a top from February 24.
2880.12: The third downside target is noted at 2880.12, corresponding to the trough marked March 10.
2832.57: An additional downside target is determined at 2832.57, reflecting the swing low from February 28.
Fundamentals
Gold surged to a new record high of $3,083.20 per ounce on Friday, driven by escalating trade tensions following fresh tariff plans from U.S. President Donald Trump. Investors flocked to the safe-haven asset amid concerns over inflation, slower growth, and global geopolitical risks. Analysts pointed to U.S. policy uncertainty, potential interest rate cuts, and strong central bank demand as key drivers. With bullion up 1.8% on the week, attention now turns to upcoming U.S. inflation data for further direction.
Conclusion
With Gold hovering near all-time highs, the interplay between technical strength and macroeconomic uncertainty remains a key driver of price action. As markets await high-impact data from the UK, Canada, and the U.S., any surprises—particularly in inflation or growth figures—could influence the near-term trajectory of Gold. Until greater clarity emerges, elevated volatility and a bullish bias are likely to persist, with traders closely watching key resistance and support levels for actionable signals.
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