Gold enters Friday’s session under pressure, poised for its steepest weekly loss since November 2024. A stronger U.S. dollar and receding geopolitical tensions have dampened demand for the metal as a traditional safe haven. As the market awaits key U.S. economic data—namely, the University of Michigan’s preliminary readings on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations—traders are closely watching for signals that could further influence price direction. Combined with technical weakness and a shifting macroeconomic backdrop, Gold’s short-term outlook remains fragile, with both bulls and bears eyeing critical levels ahead.
Following the all-time high of $3,499.86 per troy ounce, Gold has begun to show signs of weakening, coinciding with an easing of geopolitical tensions and trade-related concerns. A Shooting Star candlestick formation near recent highs reflects diminished bullish momentum, indicating a potential reversal.
Further reinforcing this shift is the development of a top failure swing, where the interim peak at $3,436.94 failed to surpass the record high. The subsequent breakdown below key support at $3,201.80 has opened the door for additional downside risk.
Momentum indicators support the bearish bias. The Momentum Oscillator has slipped below the 100 baseline, pointing to increasing selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral 50 level, and price action continues to trade beneath the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), underscoring persistent weakness.
While the broader trend outlook leans bearish, a degree of caution remains warranted. The 20-period EMA has not yet crossed below the 50-period EMA, suggesting that bearish confirmation is not fully established in the near term.
Key Resistance Levels
If buyers take control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
3333.72: The initial resistance level is estimated at 3333.72, mirroring the weekly Pivot Point, PP, estimated using the standard methodology.
3436.94: The second price target is seen at 3436.94, reflecting the peak from May 7.
3499.86: The third price target is established at 3499.86, corresponding to the all-time high marked April 22.
3630.88: An additional price objective is seen at 3630.88, representing the weekly resistance, R3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
Key Support Levels
If sellers maintain control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
3120.76: The initial support level is seen at 3120.76, representing the daily low marked May 15.
3056.48 The second support level is positioned at 3056.48, aligning with the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 3201.80 to 3438.44.
2956.10: The third downside target is noted at 2956.10, corresponding to an internal trendline.
2821.34: An additional downside target is determined at 2821.34, mirroring the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the low point, 3201.80, to the high point, 3438.44.
Fundamentals
Gold prices slipped again on early Friday, with spot gold down 0.5% to $3,223.06 per ounce, heading for a roughly 3% weekly decline—the steepest since November 2024. A stronger U.S. dollar and easing U.S.-China trade tensions have weakened Gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
U.S. gold futures also dipped to $3,224.90, while broader macroeconomic data, including softer U.S. inflation and slowing retail sales, added mixed signals. Despite the drop, analysts note that Gold continues to attract dip buyers, especially given lingering uncertainty around global growth and inflation.
Conclusion
With Gold under pressure and technical indicators pointing to further downside risk, the market remains highly sensitive to upcoming economic data. The University of Michigan’s sentiment and inflation readings could shape short-term direction, especially as traders reassess rate cut expectations and broader macro signals. While the prevailing trend suggests a bearish bias, key support and resistance levels will be pivotal in determining whether Gold finds stability or faces a deeper correction in the sessions ahead.
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