Gold’s Resurgence: Navigating Inflation, Trade Policies, and Market Pivots

The week ahead features several key economic events that are expected to significantly impact global markets, including inflation data, central bank policy decisions, and GDP updates. These events coincide with notable movements in Gold, a critical asset closely watched by traders. After reaching an all-time high of $2,789.94 per troy ounce in late October, Gold has seen a 9% correction but shows signs of recovery supported by technical indicators and shifting market dynamics.

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: CPI m/m (USD)
Wednesday 16:45 (GMT+2) – Canada: Overnight Rate (CAD)
Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)
Thursday 15:15 (GMT+2) – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

After peaking at an all-time high of $2,789.94 per troy ounce on October 31, Gold has experienced a 9% correction, driven by concerns over the potential persistence of inflation and the impact of Donald Trump’s trade policies. Despite this pullback, the precious metal has rebounded from its recent low of $2,356.59 and climbed above both the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a recovery effort.
Technical indicators support a near-term positive outlook. The Momentum oscillator is holding above the critical 100 mark, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, suggesting sustained upward momentum. These factors indicate that Gold may stabilize and potentially regain strength as market dynamics evolve.

If buyers maintain control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
2699.09: The first level of resistance is projected at 2699.09, which aligns with the weekly resistance, R3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
2721.14: The second price target is seen at 2721.14, mirroring the peak from November 25.
2758.31: The third price target is established at 2758.31, corresponding to the daily high marked on October 23.
2789.94: An additional price objective is estimated at 2789.94, representing the all-time high registered on October 31.

If sellers take control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
2634.09: The initial support level is seen at 2634.09, representing the weekly Pivot Point, PP, calculated using the standard methodology.
2590.17: The second support level is positioned at 2590.17, aligning with the weekly support, S2, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
2536.59: The third downside target is noted at 2536.59, corresponding to the trough from November 14.
2483.57: An additional downside target is determined at 2483.57, reflecting a peak marked on July 17.

Gold prices, which were among the top-performing assets in 2024, are expected to see modest gains in 2025, according to analysts. The forecast reflects a mix of factors, including persistent geopolitical uncertainties and the potential economic impact of trade policies under Donald Trump’s administration following his November 5 presidential election victory. His policies are anticipated to create headwinds for Gold, which saw a significant 9% correction immediately after his win. Despite these challenges, Gold is still expected to remain a preferred investment amid global uncertainties.

As the week unfolds, high-impact economic events will set the tone for global markets, with inflation data, central bank policy updates, and GDP figures playing pivotal roles. Gold, a key asset for traders, continues to navigate a complex landscape shaped by inflation concerns, geopolitical uncertainties, and evolving trade policies.
Despite a recent 9% correction from its record high, technical indicators suggest a potential recovery, with key resistance and support levels providing a roadmap for market participants. While headwinds persist, Gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong, positioning it as a resilient investment amid global uncertainties. Traders should remain vigilant as market dynamics evolve in response to these critical developments.