Markets Rebound, but Fragile Undercurrents Remain

Markets show signs of recovery as softer rhetoric from President Trump on trade and the Federal Reserve calms recent volatility. Investor sentiment has been buoyed by hopes for phased tariff reductions on China and reassurance over Fed leadership, lifting risk assets and pressuring safe-havens. Tech stocks, in particular, have led the charge, with Alphabet’s strong Q1 performance and a surge in Hong Kong-listed Chinese equities reflecting a more optimistic outlook. Meanwhile, structural headwinds remain evident in broader indices like the Nasdaq 100, where technical resistance still looms. Amid shifting policy dynamics and evolving global supply chains—exemplified by Apple’s accelerated pivot to India—markets remain delicately balanced.

Markets Rebound as Trump Softens Trade and Fed Tone

Nasdaq rallied for a fourth day as signs emerged that President Trump may soften his stance on trade and the Fed, boosting investor sentiment.The S&P 500 posted back-to-back gains, and the dollar climbed, while long-term Treasury yields fell and safe havens like gold declined. Hopes for phased tariff reductions on China and reassurance over Fed leadership helped ease recent volatility. Despite the rebound, markets remain cautious as uncertainties around policy and earnings persist.

Google Defies Headwinds with Strong Ad Sales and Cloud Gains

Alphabet reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results, driven by robust performance in its Google Search ad business and a $2.18 billion operating profit from Google Cloud. Despite lingering economic uncertainty and rising competition in AI, the company posted $76.5 billion in revenue and beat profit estimates. Shares rose after the announcement.

Hong Kong Tech Stocks Pop as Trade Optimism Grows

Chinese equities surged in Hong Kong as investors bet on easing trade tensions following President Trump’s conciliatory remarks toward China. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.1%, led by tech shares, while optimism around renewed dialogue lifted broader Asian markets. Despite the rally, caution lingers due to policy unpredictability and unresolved US-China trade issues.

Technical Analysis

Since peaking at 22,244.49 on February 18, the Nasdaq 100 has maintained a structurally bearish trajectory, characterized by a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The initial reversal developed through a non-failure swing—where the price briefly set a new high before breaking beneath key support at 21,323.78—signaling a shift in underlying market sentiment.

The bearish outlook was further reinforced by a “Death Cross” pattern, as the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed below the 50-period EMA, typically interpreted as a medium-term signal for continued downside momentum.

After establishing interim support at 16,313.88 on April 7, the index staged a corrective bounce. However, price action remains constrained below the 50-period EMA, indicating that broader downside pressure has yet to be neutralized.

Momentum indicators reflect a mixed picture: the Momentum Oscillator has recovered above the 100 baseline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed above the 50 level, suggesting an uptick in buying interest and a possible short-term shift in sentiment.

If upward momentum persists, traders will be watching resistance levels at 20,343.08, 21,077.48, and ultimately the February high of 22,244.49. Conversely, renewed selling could see support tested first at 17,588.02, with a break below exposing further downside toward 16,313.88 and potentially 15,181.20.

Apple Bets Big on India to Power US iPhone Supply

Apple plans to produce the majority of iPhones sold in the US from India by the end of 2026, accelerating its shift away from China amid tariff pressures and geopolitical tension. The move follows a surge in India-based production, with Apple now assembling 20% of its global iPhones there. Recent US tariff exemptions on electronics support the strategy, while India’s manufacturing incentives further aid Apple’s supply chain transition.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while recent policy shifts and strong tech earnings have sparked a rebound in risk assets, markets remain in a fragile equilibrium. Investors are cautiously optimistic, balancing hopes for trade de-escalation and monetary stability against persistent structural risks and geopolitical uncertainties. The days ahead will test whether this momentum can endure—or give way to renewed volatility.