The week ahead – All eyes on FOMC Economic Projections

Key Upcoming Events:

• US Inflation Rate 15:30 (GMT+3) Wednesday 12^th June
• US Interest Rate Decision 21:00 (GMT+3) Wednesday 12^th June
• JP Interest Rate Decision 06:00 (GMT+3) Friday 14^th June

US Inflation Data: Traders will be closely monitoring the CPI data for signs of further softening, which could justify market expectations for a September rate cut.  A weak print might weaken the USD and trigger a risk-on rally, while a strong print could send the dollar higher and impact risk assets negatively.

FOMC Forecasts: With no change in policy expected, the focus will be on the FOMC forecasts and Jerome Powell’s press conference. Traders will look for any signals regarding a potential September rate cut. A downward revision in the Fed funds rate median estimate for this year could be interpreted as a dovish signal.

UK Employment and GDP Data: Pound traders will focus on the UK’s employment report and the monthly GDP rate for April. Consistently strong wage growth and a solid GDP figure could reduce the likelihood of a BoE rate cut in September, potentially boosting the pound.

BOJ Interest Rate Decision: The Bank of Japan’s meeting will be closely watched. Despite mixed data, the BOJ could provide clues towards a future policy shift, with markets pricing in a 10bp hike in July and September. Any hawkish signals from the BOJ could significantly impact the USD/JPY pair.

This week the markets will be closely following economic data & earnings reports such as:

Monday:

• EU Consumer Inflation Expectations APR

Tuesday:

• AU NAB Business Confidence MAY
• GB Unemployment Rate APR
• Earnings Reports:
  • Oracle Corporation
  • Casey’s General Stores, Inc.
  • ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding Limited

Wednesday:

• JP PPI MAY
• CN Inflation Rate MAY
• GB GDP APR
• US Inflation Rate MAY 
• US Fed Interest Rate Decision
• Earnings Reports:
  • Broadcom Inc.

Thursday:

• AU Unemployment Rate MAY
• EU Industrial Production APR
• US PPI MAY
• Earnings Reports:
  • Adobe Inc.

Friday:

• JP BoJ Interest Rate Decision
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel JUN

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