The week ahead – All Eyes on Inflation Data

Key Upcoming Events: 

• US Durable Goods Orders 15:30 (GMT+3) Thursday 27^th June  
• US GDP Growth Rate Final Q1 15:30 (GMT+3) Thursday 27^th June  
• US PCE Price Index 15:30 (GMT+3) Friday 28^th June  

US PCE Inflation Data: With market expectations diverging from the Fed’s cautious December cut outlook, US data this week could be pivotal. The US PCE inflation report on Friday and Thursday’s final Q1 GDP figures will shape market expectations and influence Federal Reserve rate decisions. Softer PCE data may boost hopes for rate cuts, while stronger data could strengthen the US dollar and reduce rate cut prospects.

Canadian CPI Data in Spotlight: Canada’s CPI data, due Tuesday, will be critical after the BoC’s recent rate cut. If inflation continues to soften, expectations for further cuts could rise, potentially weakening the Canadian dollar. The BoC’s next interest rate decision is on July 24th, with market expectations currently suggesting a 60% chance of another cut.

Australian Inflation Report: Australia’s monthly CPI report, out on Wednesday, is significant for assessing the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next moves. An increase in inflation to a five-month high could bolster the Australian dollar and influence expectations of future rate hikes.

Micron and Nike Earnings Reports: Key earnings announcements next week include Micron Technology on Wednesday and Nike on Thursday. Micron’s results will provide insights into demand for AI components, while Nike’s earnings will shed light on consumer strength in the US and China. Both reports are expected to significantly impact their respective stock movements.

This week the markets will be closely following economic data & earnings reports such as:

Tuesday:

• CA Inflation Rate MAY
• Earnings Reports:
  • FedEx Corporation
  • Carnival Corporation & plc

Wednesday:

• AU Monthly CPI Indicator MAY
• DE GfK Consumer Confidence JUL
• US New Home Sales MAY
• Earnings Reports:
  • Micron Technology, Inc.
  • Paychex, Inc.
  • General Mills, Inc.

Thursday:

• JP Retail Sales MAY
• US Durable Goods Orders MAY
• US GDP Growth Rate Final Q1
• Earnings Reports:
  • NIKE, Inc.
  • McCormick & Company, Inc.

Friday:

• JP Tokyo CPI JUN
• GB GDP Growth Rate Final Q1
• CA GDP APR
• US Core PCE Price Index MAY
• US Personal Income MAY
• US Personal Spending MAY

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