As we approach the week of July 29 to August 2, 2024, several important economic events are scheduled to occur. These events hold great significance for traders and investors as they have the potential to cause considerable market volatility and impact trading decisions.
High Impact Economic Events
Tuesday 05:30 (GMT+0) – France: GDP q/q (EUR)
Tuesday 06:00 (GMT+0) – Germany: GDP q/q (EUR)
Tuesday 09:00 (GMT+0) – Europe: GDP q/q (EUR)
Tuesday 14:00 (GMT+0) – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)
Tuesday 14:00 (GMT+0) – USA: CB Consumer Confidence Index (USD)
Wednesday 01:00 (GMT+0) -China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
Wednesday 01:00 (GMT+0) -China: Non-Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
Wednesday 01:00 (GMT+0) -China: Composite PMI (CNY)
Wednesday 01:30 (GMT+0) – Australia: Retail Sales m/m (AUD)
Wednesday 02:30 (GMT+0) – Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Wednesday 06:30 (GMT+0) – Japan: BoJ Press Conference (JPY)
Wednesday 12:15 (GMT+0) – USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)
Wednesday 12:30 (GMT+0) – Canada: GDP y/y (CAD)
Wednesday 14:00 (GMT+0) – USA: Pending Home Sales m/m (USD)
Wednesday 18:00 (GMT+0) – USA: Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)
Wednesday 18:30 (GMT+0) – USA: FOMC Press Conference (USD)
Thursday 11:00 (GMT+0) – UK: BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP)
Thursday 14:00 am (GMT+0) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Friday 12:30 am (GMT+0) – USA: Nonfarm Payrolls (USD)
Tuesday, July 30
05:30 am – France: GDP q/q (EUR)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total monetary worth of all goods and services produced within France during a specific period, typically reported on an annualized basis. It is a key indicator of economic performance and helps assess the economy’s overall health and growth trends.
The latest GDP report, released in April 2024, showed a slight increase in the growth rate in the first quarter of 2024. Specifically, the GDP for the first quarter of 2024 was 0.2%, up from the 0.1% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Analysts anticipate a flat outlook for the upcoming week, with a projected increase of approximately 0.2%. However, this growth may have a negligible impact on the euro.
06:00 am – Germany: GDP q/q (EUR)
In April 2024, the latest report revealed a slight increase in the growth rate in the first quarter at 0.2% compared to -0.5% in the last quarter of 2023.
Economists’ projection stands at a pessimistic 0.1% growth compared to the previous quarter’s 0.2%
09:00 am – Europe: GDP q/q (EUR)
The latest GDP report, released in April 2024, showed an increase in the growth rate in the first quarter of 2024. Specifically, the GDP for the first quarter of 2024 was 0.3%, up from the -0.1% decline recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Analysts anticipate a marginal slowdown outlook for the upcoming week, with a projected increase of approximately 0.2%. However, this growth may have a negligible impact on the euro.
14:00 – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is a key monthly report that provides data on job openings, hires, and separations in various sectors of the economy. The survey is an important indicator of labor market dynamics, offering insights into employment trends, labor demand, and the overall health of the job market. Higher job openings are usually good for the US dollar.
In the most recent report, dated July 2, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that there were 8.14 million job openings on the last business day of May. The number of hires and total separations stayed roughly the same at 5.8 million and 5.4 million, respectively. The EURUSD experienced high volatility on the day, only to close 0.05% higher.
Analysts’ projections are set to 7.979 million for this week’s openings, slightly lower than the previous month.
14:00 – USA: CB Consumer Confidence Index (USD)
The CB Consumer Confidence Index is a key market indicator in the US that gauges consumers’ confidence in the economy through a monthly survey. The survey evaluates consumers’ views on current economic conditions and their expectations for the next six months, including business conditions, employment, and income. An index growth that is higher than anticipated may have a positive impact on the US dollar.
In June, the Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 100.4 from 101.3, while the Present Situation Index increased to 141.5 from 140.8. In contrast, the Expectations Index declined to 73.0 from 74.9 in May and has been below 80 for the past five months, which typically indicates an upcoming recession.
Analysts are optimistic about the upcoming survey. They anticipate the Consumer Confidence Index increasing to 108.00, which may positively impact the US dollar.
Wednesday, July 31
01:00 am -China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), published monthly, provides an early indication of economic activities in the Chinese manufacturing sector. It is based on responses from 3,000 manufacturing enterprises across China.
An above 50.0 PMI can enhance global investor confidence and commodity prices, while a PMI below 50.0 can raise worries about a global economic downturn.
China’s Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 49.5 in June, indicating a continued slowdown in the sector. Chinese manufacturers responded to sluggish demand by cutting prices, decreasing the ex-factory prices index to 47.9.
Economists expect the Consumer Confidence Index to be 50.5 this week, slightly above the sluggish 49.5 of the previous month. Week data may potentially impact currency valuations and demand in commodities.
13:30 – Australia: Retail Sales m/m (AUD)
The Retail Sales, released monthly, determines the percentage change in the total value of retail sales in Australia from one month to the other. It reflects consumer spending patterns and is an essential gauge of the country’s economic health, as higher retail sales indicate stronger consumer demand and economic activity.
On July 3, the latest Australia Retail Sales report revealed a 0.6% increase in retail sales for May 2024, which exceeded market expectations. Stronger consumer spending was reflected in a 0.5% increase from the previous day on the AUDUSD price chart.
02:30 am – Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision (JPY)
Although the BoJ board agrees on the necessity of increasing rates in the near future, there has yet to be an agreement on the timing.
According to a recent Bloomberg survey, there is a 30% chance of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike from the current range of 0 to 0.1% at the July 31 meeting. However, the recent increase in the value of the Japanese yen is due to the market’s expectations ahead of the BOJ meeting.
12:15 pm – USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)
The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change is a monthly economic indicator that measures the change in the number of employed people in the US private sector. It excludes the farming industry and government jobs, providing an early estimate of employment trends.
Strong reading exceeding analysts’ forecast may positively impact the US Dollar.
The latest, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change on July 3, came in at 150 K, exceeding analysts’ forecast but falling short of the previous month’s 152 K.
On the July 31 upcoming release, economists appear pessimistic with an estimate of 77 K new private jobs.
12:30 pm – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Canada’s GDP m/m refers to the percentage change in the Gross Domestic Product of Canada from one month to the next. This economic indicator measures the overall economic output and health of the country, reflecting the value of goods and services produced. A positive change indicates economic growth, while a negative change suggests a contraction.
On June 28, the Gross Domestic Product exceeded the previous month and economists’s forecast by 0.3%. Coincidentally, the USDCAD exchange rate declined by 0.17% compared to the previous day.
For July 2024, expectations are set for a modest 0.2% growth.
14:00 – USA: Pending Home Sales m/m (USD)
The Pending Home Sales is a monthly economic indicator that measures the number of residential properties under contract but not yet sold, excluding new construction. It reflects the housing market’s health and predicts future completed home sales.
An increase in pending home sales signals rising demand and economic strength, while a decrease may indicate a slowdown in the housing market. This indicator is considered a leading indicator of housing activity that generally leads the Existing Home Sales by a month or two.
In May, the most recent Pending Home Sales data showed a 2.1% decline. The Midwest and South experienced a drop in monthly transactions, while the Northeast and West saw increases. Comparatively, all regions in the US reported decreases year-over-year. Incidentally, on the day, EURUSD appreciated by 0.22% from the previous day.
18:00 – USA: Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD)
The imminent decision on the USA Federal Reserve Interest Rate, scheduled for July 31, 2024, is widely anticipated to yield no adjustment to the current rate. Analysts and futures markets expect the Fed to uphold the federal funds rate within the existing range of 5.25% to 5.50%, citing the need for convincing evidence that inflation is a route to the 2% target.
Thursday, August 1
11:00 – UK: BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP)
The Bank of England is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 5.25% during its next decision on August 1, 2024 despite some speculation about potential rate cuts later in the year. The primary reasons for this expectation are persistent inflation and robust economic growth indicators, which suggest that the Bank will continue its cautious approach to ensure inflation remains under control before making any rate reductions.
The headline inflation rate slowed to 2% in May and remained steady in June. However, core inflation was at 3.5% and services inflation was at 5.7%. The services sector contributes about 80% to the UK’s economic output. The persistently high percentage is worrisome.
14:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a monthly indicator, provides information about business conditions in the manufacturing sector. A PMI above 50 shows expansion compared to the previous month, while a PMI below 50 indicates a contraction.
On July 1, 2024, the USA Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 from the expected 49.2, signaling sluggish economic conditions in the manufacturing sector. This opened the way for heightened volatility in the EUR/USD.
Economists are projecting a PMI of 49.4 for this week’s report, which reflects optimistic expectations compared to the previous month’s PMI.
Friday, August 2
12:30 pm – USA: Nonfarm Payrolls (USD)
USA Nonfarm Payrolls is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the number of paid employees in the US economy, excluding farm workers, government employees, private household employees, and employees of nonprofit organizations. Released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this report provides insights into the overall employment situation and is closely watched by economists, policymakers, and investors. An increase in nonfarm payrolls indicates job growth and economic expansion, while a decrease suggests a slowing economy.
On July 5, the latest release showed that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June compared to 218,000 in May. The unemployment rate changed a little to 4.1 percent compared to 4.0 percent in May. Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction.
According to analysts’ forecasts, the upcoming release of Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to add 241 K new jobs.
Company Earnings (July 29 -August 2)
Monday, July 29: MCD (McDonald’s Corporation)
Tuesday, July 30: MRK (Merck & Co. Inc.)
Tuesday, July 30: BP (BP plc)
Tuesday, July 30: PFE (Pfizer Inc.)
Tuesday, July 30: SBUX (Starbucks Corporation)
Wednesday, July 31: META (Meta Platforms Inc.)
Thursday, August 1: AAPL (Apple Inc.)
Thursday, August 1: AMZN (Amazon.com Inc.)
Thursday, August 1: INTC (Intel Corporation)
Thursday, August 1: SNAP (Snap Inc.)
Friday, August 2: XOM (Exxon Mobil Corporation)