The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for April 28 – May 2, 2025

This week is packed with high-impact economic events and key corporate earnings releases that could influence global markets. Investors will focus on critical data points, including US JOLTS job openings, Australia’s CPI, China’s manufacturing PMI, Germany’s inflation, US GDP growth, and the closely watched U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. Central bank decisions, particularly the Bank of Japan’s policy update and earnings from major companies like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft, will also shape market sentiment.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

Wednesday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: CPI q/q (AUD)

Wednesday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

Wednesday All Day – Germany: Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)

Wednesday 15:15 (GMT+3) – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Advance GDP q/q (USD)

Wednesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Thursday Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Thursday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Tuesday, April 29

17:00 – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

The JOLTS Job Openings report is a monthly report based on employers’ surveys, indicating job vacancies in the US commercial, industrial, and office areas, excluding the farming industry.

Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

Job openings were unchanged at 7.6 million in February 2025, while hires and separations also remained steady. The quits rate held at 2.0%, and layoffs were stable at 1.8 million. Openings fell year-over-year, with notable declines in finance and insurance, signaling a gradually cooling labor market.

Analysts project a reading of 7.48M.

Wednesday, April 30

04:30 am – Australia: CPI q/q (AUD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of goods and services across various categories of household expenditures. This data provides insight into consumer price trends, helping assess the cost of living and inflationary pressures. The CPI is used by policymakers, including central banks, to guide decisions on monetary policy, such as interest rates, and by businesses to adjust pricing strategies and contracts linked to inflation.

Australia’s CPI rose 0.2% in Q4, with annual inflation easing to 2.4%. Electricity and fuel prices fell, offsetting rises in recreation, alcohol, and tobacco. Goods inflation dropped to its lowest since 2016, while services inflation remained elevated.

Economists anticipate an inflationary reading of 0.8%.

04:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly indicator of economic activity in China’s manufacturing sector, published by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It surveys 3,200 enterprises across various industries and regions, measuring key sub-indicators like output, new orders, and employment. A PMI reading above 50 indicates sector expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.

China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in March, showing mild expansion. Output and new orders improved, while export demand and employment remained weak. Input and factory prices fell, and business optimism slightly softened but stayed positive.

Analysts predict a contractionary figure of 49.8.

All Day – Germany: Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)

Germany’s consumer price index (CPI) tracks average price changes for goods and services across all household types and regions, covering essentials like rent, food, clothing, vehicles, and services such as hairdressing and repairs. It is the Eurozone’s earliest major consumer inflation.

Germany’s inflation rate is estimated at 2.2% year-over-year in March 2025, with consumer prices rising 0.3% from February. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was slightly higher at 2.5%.

Economists anticipate that the German Consumer Price Index will rise by 0.4%.

15:15 – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The ADP Nonfarm Employment Changetracks the monthly change in employment across 19 manufacturing sectors in the US, excluding the agriculture and government sectors, based on the aggregated and anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million US employees.

Employment growth may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

Private sector employment rose by 155,000 jobs in March 2025, while annual pay increased by 4.6% year-over-year, according to the ADP National Employment Report. Despite policy uncertainty and cautious consumer sentiment, the data reflected a positive outcome for the labor market across various business sizes.

Analysts expect that private sector employment will increase by 123,000 jobs.

15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key measure of the economic output of a country or region. It represents the total value of goods and services produced minus intermediate consumption like raw materials or components. GDP can be calculated using methods such as the value-added approach, which looks at the contribution of each sector to the economy. When GDP grows, it indicates economic expansion, while a slowdown or negative GDP may signal a recession. It’s used as a benchmark for the overall health of an economy.

Real GDP in Canada grew by 0.4% in January 2025, following a 0.3% rise in December. Growth was broad-based, with 13 of 20 sectors expanding. Goods-producing industries led the increase, up 1.1%, driven by mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, and manufacturing, while services-producing industries rose modestly by 0.1%.

Economists anticipate a reading of 0.3%.

15:30 – USA: Advance GDP q/q (USD)

Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, slightly above the prior estimate, driven by stronger consumer and government spending despite weaker investment and exports. Goods-producing industries rose 2.3%, services 2.4%, and government output 2.7%. Corporate profits rebounded sharply, increasing by $204.7 billion after a decline in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, inflation pressures remained modest, with the PCE price index up 2.4%.

Analysts predict that economic activity in the US will increase by 0.4%.

17:00 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure the value of goods and services consumed by individuals and households. It’s a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large portion of economic activity in the US. The PCE is often used to track inflation trends, as it includes data on prices paid by consumers. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy decisions, aiming to maintain price stability in the economy.

In February, US personal income rose by 0.8%, while disposable personal income increased by 0.9%. Personal consumption expenditures grew by 0.4%. The personal saving rate climbed to 4.6%, with total personal savings reaching $1.02 trillion.

Economists anticipate that PCE will grow by 0.1%.

Thursday, May 1

Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy aims to achieve price stability, which is crucial for supporting economic activity. Price stability helps individuals and firms make informed decisions about consumption and investment, ensuring efficient resource allocation. To this end, the Bank set a 2% inflation target (CPI) in 2013 and remains committed to reaching this goal as soon as possible. Interest rate growth can have a positive impact on yen quotes.

At its March 2025 meeting, the Bank of Japan noted moderate economic recovery and rising wages, supporting inflation toward the 2% target. However, global uncertainties, especially from US policy shifts, raised caution. Policymakers agreed to maintain current monetary policy but signaled flexibility for future rate hikes if inflation and wage trends continue to strengthen.

Economists predict that Japan’s policy interest rate will stay the same.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

In the week ending April 19, initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 222,000, while the four-week average edged down to 220,250. The insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2% for the week ending April 12, with continued claims falling by 37,000 to 1.84 million.

Analysts expect a figure of 224,000.

17:00 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

US manufacturing activity contracted in March after two months of modest expansion, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 49.0 from 50.3 in February. New orders, production, and employment all weakened, while prices surged due to tariff impacts. Inventories and supplier deliveries expanded, signaling input growth even as demand slowed. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, three expanded. Overall, 46% of manufacturing GDP contracted in March, raising concerns about continued economic headwinds.

Economists expect that the economic contraction will continue, with a forecast reading of 48.0.

Friday, May 2

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report reveals the number of new jobs created during the given month in all non-agricultural sectors of the US.

Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

In March 2025, US nonfarm payrolls rose by 228,000, while the unemployment rate held at 4.2%. Job gains were led by health care, social assistance, transportation, and retail. Wages rose 0.3% from February and 3.8% year-over-year.

Economists anticipate that nonfarm payrolls will rise at a slower pace, with a figure of 129,000.

Company Earnings (April 28 – May 2)

Monday, April 28: PYPL (PayPal Holdings Inc)

Tuesday, April 29: BP (BP PLC)

Tuesday, April 29: GM (General Motors Co)

Tuesday, April 29: KO (Coca-Cola Co)

Tuesday, April 29: SBUX (Starbucks Corp)

Tuesday, April 29: PFE (Pfizer Inc)

Tuesday, April 29: SNAP (Snap Inc)

Tuesday, April 29: V (Visa Inc)

Wednesday, April 30: CAT (Caterpillar Inc.)

Wednesday, April 30: META (Meta Platforms Inc)

Wednesday, April 30: EBAY (eBay Inc)

Wednesday, April 30: MSFT (Microsoft Corporation)

Thursday, May 1: AAPL (Apple Inc.)

Thursday, May 1: AIG (American International Group Inc)

Thursday, May 1: AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.)

Thursday, May 1: BP (BP PLC)

Thursday, May 1: MCD (Mcdonald’s Corp)

Friday, May 2: XOM (Exxon Mobil Corp)

Conclusion

With a full lineup of critical economic data releases and major corporate earnings, this week could set the tone for market sentiment heading into May. Investors will be closely watching labor market trends, inflation updates, GDP growth figures, and central bank decisions, while earnings from tech and consumer giants may add further volatility. Caution and focus on incoming data will be key.