The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for February 17 – 21, 2025

As markets navigate a week filled with key economic releases and central bank decisions, investors will closely monitor inflation trends, labor market conditions, and business activity across major economies. With political uncertainty in Europe and shifting monetary policies influencing sentiment, upcoming data will offer crucial insights into global economic resilience and future policy directions. 

Tuesday 5:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)
Tuesday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)
Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)
Wednesday 03:00 am (GMT+2) – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)
Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)
Thursday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Friday 10:15 am (GMT+2) – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Friday 10:15 am (GMT+2) – France: Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Friday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Friday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Friday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)
Friday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Retail Sales m/m (CAD)
Friday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Friday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

5:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

Interest Rate Decision is one of the key instruments of the national monetary and credit policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

A higher interest rate leads to the Australian dollar appreciation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate at 4.35% in its final 2024 meeting, marking the ninth consecutive hold as expected.

Economists anticipate a rate cut of 25 basis points.

09:00 am – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

It reflects the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits during the given month.

An increase in the claimant count is a signal of weakness in the labor market and may have a negative impact on the GDP quotes.

The UK Claimant Count rose to 1.744 million in December 2024, up both monthly and annually, signaling a weakening labor market. With employment growth slowing and unemployment at 4.4%, job seekers face increasing challenges amid economic uncertainty.

Analysts expect an increase of 10,000 benefit claims.

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time. It covers eight major categories: food, shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, recreation and education, and alcohol and tobacco.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.8% year-over-year in December, down from 1.9% in November, with slower price growth in restaurant food and alcohol. Excluding food, CPI increased 2.1%. Monthly CPI fell 0.4%.

Analysts expect that the upcoming release will show no changes.

03:00 am – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reviews its interest rate policy every six weeks, setting the rate at which loans are provided to commercial banks. This rate is a key instrument of the RBNZ’s monetary policy, aimed at managing the strength of the New Zealand dollar (NZD). A rate increase typically strengthens the NZD by attracting foreign capital and boosting demand for the currency.

In November, the Monetary Policy Committee cut the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 4.25%, citing easing inflation and subdued economic activity.

Analysts anticipate a rate cut of 50 basis points.

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

The most common method for assessing inflation is the annual inflation rate, which looks at price changes over a 12-month period by comparing the current month’s prices with those from the same month the previous year. CPIH is the most comprehensive inflation measure, including the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) plus owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax.

UK inflation remained steady in December 2024, with CPIH rising 3.5% year-over-year, unchanged from November, while CPI eased slightly to 2.5% from 2.6%.

Analysts project a reading of 2.8%.

02:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

The Australia Employment Change tracks the monthly variation in the number of officially employed individuals in the country. An increase in employment indicates a stronger labor market and can positively influence the value of the Australian dollar.

Australian employment surged by 56.3K in December 2024, far exceeding forecasts of 15K and accelerating from November’s 28.2K gain.

Analysts project an increase of 17,000 new jobs.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.

U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 213,000 in the week ending February 8, with the four-week average dipping to 216,000. Insured unemployment declined by 36,000 to 1.85 million, keeping the insured unemployment rate steady at 1.2%. The labor market remains resilient despite slight fluctuations in claims.

Economists expect unemployment claims to increase by 214,000.

09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Retail Sales show the changes in the value of retail goods sold in the UK for the given month compared to the previous month. The calculation uses season-adjusted data from British retailers.

The indicator is used in forecasting, budgeting, and developing UK financial and economic policy. Retail sales growth can positively affect British pound quotes.

UK retail sales volumes fell by 0.3% in December 2024, following a revised 0.1% rise in November.

Economists expect a reading of 0.3%

10:15 am – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

France’s manufacturing sector remained in recession, with the PMI rising to 45.0 in January but still below growth levels. Output had shrunk for 32 months, and political uncertainty added to industry concerns. Weak demand forced price cuts despite rising input costs. Orders remained low, and firms were cautious on employment, focusing on temporary worker layoffs.

Analysts project a contractionary PMI reading of 45.3.

10:15 am – France: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

France’s service sector contracted further in January, with the HCOB Services PMI falling from 49.3 to 48.2, signaling a sharper decline in activity. Weak client demand and political uncertainty were key factors weighing on output.

Economists forecast a contractionary reading of 49.0.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Germany’s manufacturing sector remained in contraction in January, with the HCOB PMI at 45.0, still below the growth threshold of 50.0. However, the index rose from 42.5 in December, reaching its highest level since May 2023, signaling a slower pace of decline.

Analysts anticipate a contractionary figure of 45.4.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Germany’s service sector expanded at a faster pace in January, with the HCOB Services PMI rising to 52.5 from 51.2 in December. This marked the strongest growth in six months, driven by large projects, increased customer inquiries, and better capacity utilization.

Economists anticipate the PMI to come in at 52.4.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

The UK manufacturing sector remained in contraction in January, with the S&P Global PMI rising to 48.3 from December’s 11-month low of 47.0. Operating conditions worsened for the fourth straight month as output, new orders, employment, and stocks of purchases declined while supplier delivery times lengthened.

Analysts anticipate the UK manufacturing PMI to come in at 48.5.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

The UK services sector saw marginal growth in January, with the S&P Global Services PMI edging down to 50.8 from 51.1 in December.

Economists forecast the UK services PMI to come in at 50.8.

16:45 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The U.S. manufacturing sector returned to growth in January, with the S&P Global PMI rising to 51.2 from 49.4 in December, marking its first expansion in seven months. The improvement was driven by a rebound in new orders and output.

Economists predict that the reading will be 51.2.

16:45 – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

The U.S. services sector expanded in January, though at a slower pace, with the S&P Global Services PMI falling to 52.9 from 56.8 in December. Despite the decline, business activity continued to grow, supported by sustained new order growth, marking two years of consecutive monthly expansion.

Economists expect the growth reading to be 53.2.

Tuesday, February 18: BIDU (Baidu, Inc.)
Tuesday, February 18: DVN (Devon Energy Corporation)
Thursday, February 20: BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Limited)

Markets brace for a pivotal week as economic indicators shape sentiment. Central bank rate decisions, inflation prints, and labor data will test policy trajectories. Manufacturing and services PMIs will gauge momentum across key economies, while retail sales and earnings reports provide insight into consumer resilience. Political uncertainty in Europe lingers, adding another layer of complexity to growth expectations.