This week brings several key economic events that could influence markets, including US labor market reports, central bank decisions, and major corporate earnings. Highlights include the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, JOLTS Job Openings, and the ADP and Non-Farm Employment reports in the US. The Bank of England will decide on interest rates while Canada releases its Employment Change data. Investors will also watch earnings from major companies like Alphabet, Amazon, and Ford.
High Impact Economic Events
Monday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Tuesday 15:00 (GMT+2) – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)
Wednesday 15:15 (GMT+2) – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)
Wednesday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)
Thursday 14:00 (GMT+2) – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)
Monday, February 3
17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.
The Manufacturing PMI for December 2024 rose to 49.3%, signaling continued contraction but at a slower pace. New orders grew, and production stabilized while employment declined further. Prices increased, and supplier deliveries slowed slightly. Despite some signs of improvement, the sector remains under pressure.
Analysts anticipate the contraction will continue this week with a projected reading of 49.3.
Tuesday, February 4
15:00 – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)
It’s a monthly report based on employers’ surveys, indicating job vacancies in the US commercial, industrial, and office areas, excluding the farming industry.
Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.
Job openings in November remained steady at 8.1 million but were down 833,000 from a year ago. Hires changed slightly, at 5.3 million, while total separations stood at 5.1 million. Quits declined to 3.1 million, indicating lower voluntary turnover, while layoffs and discharges remained stable at 1.8 million.
Analysts predict that the number of people claiming unemployment will be 7.88M.
Wednesday, February 5
15:15 – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)
The ADP Non-farm Employment Change tracks the monthly change in employment across 19 manufacturing sectors in the US, excluding the agriculture and government sectors, based on the aggregated and anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million US employees.
Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December, with hiring slowing across multiple industries. Manufacturing contracted for the third consecutive month while overall job and wage growth eased. Healthcare remained the strongest sector in the latter half of 2024, leading to job creation.
Analysts forecast a reading of 149,000.
USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)
The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.
The US services sector expanded in December, with the Services PMI rising to 54.1%. Business activity grew, new orders increased, and employment remained stable. Prices surged to their highest level since January, while businesses voiced concerns over tariffs and inflation.
Economists project a slight increase, expecting a growth reading of 54.2.
Thursday, February 6
14:00 – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to achieve a 2% inflation target while supporting sustainable economic growth and employment. It adopts a forward-looking, medium-term strategy to ensure inflation remains stable and sustainable.
The Bank of England kept its Bank Rate at 4.75% in December, with a 6–3 vote in favor of holding steady. Inflation rose to 2.6% in November, driven by core goods and food prices, while UK economic activity weakened. Wage growth remains uncertain, and the MPC emphasized the need to keep policy restrictive until inflation risks subside.
Economists anticipate the Bank of England will reduce the official bank rate by 25 basis points.
15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.
Jobless claims fell by 16,000 to 207,000, with continuing claims down 42,000 to 1.86 million. The insured unemployment rate held at 1.2%.
Economists project a reading of 214,000.
Friday, February 7
15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)
Change in the number of employed individuals in the previous month. In general, when the actual figure is greater than the forecast, it is positive for the currency.
Canada added 91,000 jobs in December 2024, the biggest gain since January 2023, surpassing expectations. Full-time employment rose by 56,000, while part-time jobs increased by 34,000. Job growth was strong in education, transportation, finance, and health care. Alberta, Ontario, and British Columbia saw notable employment gains, while Manitoba recorded a decline.
Analysts anticipate that Canada will add 26,500 jobs.
15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)
The Non-farm Payrolls report reveals the number of new jobs created during the given month in all non-agricultural sectors of the US.
Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on dollar quotes.
The US added 256,000 jobs in December, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Gains were seen in health care, government, social assistance, and retail. Wages rose 3.9% from a year ago, and the labor force participation rate stayed at 62.5%. The average workweek remained 34.3 hours. Revisions lowered prior job gains by 8,000.
Economists expect a figure of 154,000.
Company Earnings (February 3 – 7)
Tuesday, February 4: EA (Electronic Arts Inc.)
Tuesday, February 4: GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.)
Tuesday, February 4: MRK (Merck & Co., Inc.)
Tuesday, February 4: PFE (Pfizer Inc.)
Tuesday, February 4: SNAP (Snap Inc.)
Wednesday, February 5: F (Ford Motor Company)
Thursday, February 6: AMZN (Amazon.com Inc.)
Conclusion
This week’s economic calendar is packed with key reports and central bank decisions that could shape market sentiment. Investors will closely monitor US labor data, including JOLTS, ADP, and Non-Farm Payrolls, alongside the ISM PMIs. The Bank of England’s rate decision and Canada’s employment report will also be in focus. Additionally, major earnings releases from companies like Alphabet, Amazon, and Ford could add to market volatility. With multiple high-impact events ahead, traders and analysts will be watching closely for signs of economic momentum and potential shifts in monetary policy.