The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for January 6 – 10, 2025 

The upcoming week features key economic events poised to influence global markets, with inflation, labor market data, and service sector activity taking center stage. Major releases include Germany’s preliminary CPI, US nonfarm payrolls, and Australia’s CPI, offering critical insights into economic trends and central bank policy directions. Meanwhile, earnings reports from select corporations will provide further clues on business performance amid shifting macroeconomic conditions. Markets will closely watch these developments to gauge potential volatility across major currencies.

Monday All Day – Germany: Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)

Tuesday 09:30 am (GMT+2) – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

Wednesday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 17:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Employment Change (AUD)

Friday 17:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

All Day – Germany: Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)

Germany’s consumer price index (CPI) tracks average price changes for goods and services across all household types and regions, covering essentials like rent, food, clothing, vehicles, and services such as hairdressing and repairs. It is the Eurozone’s earliest major consumer inflation. If the CPI number exceeds expectations, the euro’s value may rise against other currencies.

The Federal Statistical Office reported that consumer prices rose by 2.2% year-on-year in November, up from 2.0% in October but slightly below forecasts of 2.3%. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2%, marking the largest monthly decline since November 2023.

Analysts expect a reading at 0.3%.

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the changes in the prices of goods and services that reflect the spending habits of private households in Switzerland.

In November, the consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% from the previous month, reaching 106.9 points. Compared to the same month last year, inflation rose by 0.7%.

Analysts anticipate that the upcoming release will indicate a decrease of 0.1%.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

The ISM Services PMI measures activity in the US service sector for the reporting month. It is derived from a survey of supply executives in the services sector. Readings above 50 can have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In November, the Services PMI fell to 52.1%, down from October’s 56%, but remained above the 50% threshold, signaling continued expansion in the services sector and the overall economy for the fifth consecutive month.

Analysts anticipate a growth reading of 53.2.

17:00 – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

It’s a monthly report based on employers’ surveys, indicating job vacancies in the US commercial, industrial, and office areas, excluding the farming industry.

In October, US job openings held at 7.7 million, with hires and separations steady at 5.3 million. Quits rose by 228,000 to 3.3 million, driven by gains in accommodation and food services. Layoffs and discharges remained unchanged at 1.6 million, with revisions for September showing slightly fewer job openings and more hires.

Analysts forecast a reading of 7,770,000 job openings.

02:30 am – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of goods and services across various categories of household expenditures. This data provides insight into consumer price trends, helping assess the cost of living and inflationary pressures. The CPI is used by policymakers, including central banks, to guide decisions on monetary policy, such as interest rates, and by businesses to adjust pricing strategies and contracts linked to inflation.

The monthly CPI rose 2.1% annually in October, unchanged from September. Excluding volatile items and holiday travel, inflation slowed to 2.4% from 2.7%. However, the trimmed mean inflation, which filters out irregular price changes, increased to 3.5% from 3.2%, reflecting underlying price pressures.

Economists predict that the report in January will show a slight increase to 2.2%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

For the week ending December 28, initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 211,000, while the 4-week moving average decreased to 223,250. The insured unemployment rate dipped to 1.2%, with insured unemployment falling by 52,000 to 1,844,000. Unadjusted initial claims rose by 2.7% to 282,998, lower than expected, while unadjusted insured unemployment declined by 3.9% to 1,869,384, compared to 1.3% and 1.9 million a year earlier.

Analysts anticipate a figure of 210,000.

17:30 – Canada: Employment Change (AUD)

Change in the number of employed individuals in the previous month. In general, when the actual figure is greater than the forecast, it is positive for the currency.

In November 2024, Canada added 51,000 jobs, the highest gain in seven months, surpassing October’s modest increase of 14,500 and exceeding market expectations of 25,000.

Economists predict a modest increase of 24,500.

17:30 – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report shows the number of new jobs added in the US across all non-agricultural sectors for a given month. An increase in this indicator can positively impact the value of the dollar.

In November, US nonfarm payrolls rose by 227,000, with job gains in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance, while retail trade lost 28,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased 0.4%, up 4.0% year-over-year. Revisions added 56,000 jobs to the prior month.

Economists expect a rise of 154,000 in nonfarm payrolls this week.

Tuesday, January 7: AIR (AAR Corp.)

Wednesday, January 8: AYI (Acuity Brands, Inc)

Friday, January 10: DAL (Delta Air Lines Inc)

In conclusion, the upcoming week promises significant market activity, with key economic data releases and corporate earnings likely to shape investor sentiment. Inflation reports from Germany, Switzerland, and Australia, coupled with critical US labor market indicators, will offer fresh insights into global economic momentum. Traders and analysts will be closely monitoring these events for potential impacts on currency valuations, interest rate expectations, and overall market direction.