The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for June 29 – July 3, 2026

Overview

Markets face a shortened but important week of high-impact economic releases, with attention focused on Canadian GDP, US consumer confidence, manufacturing activity, crude oil inventories, and the latest employment figures. These reports may shape expectations for growth, inflation, energy demand, and future Federal Reserve policy. With key earnings from Nike, Constellation Brands, and General Mills also due, traders may see increased volatility across the CAD, USD, oil, equities, and major currency pairs.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: CB Consumer Confidence Index (USD)

Wednesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Wednesday 17:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Tuesday, June 30

15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key measure of the economic output of a country or region. It represents the total value of goods and services produced, minus intermediate consumption like raw materials or components. GDP can be calculated using methods such as the value-added approach, which looks at the contribution of each sector to the economy. When GDP grows, it indicates economic expansion, while a slowdown or negative GDP may signal a recession. It’s used as a benchmark for the overall health of an economy.

Canada’s real GDP edged down 0.1% in March, reversing part of February’s 0.2% gain. The decline was mainly driven by weakness in goods-producing industries, which fell 0.8%, led by mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, and construction. Retail trade also contracted. However, services-producing industries helped limit the overall decline, rising 0.1%, supported by stronger wholesale trade. Overall, 8 of 20 industrial sectors recorded declines during the month.

Economists expect the monthly GDP to rise by 0.4% in the next release.

17:00 – USA: CB Consumer Confidence Index (USD)

Consumer Confidence provides a comprehensive analysis of consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions. Published monthly, it examines consumer attitudes, spending intentions, vacation plans, and expectations surrounding inflation, stock prices, and interest rates. The report is segmented by demographics such as age and income and includes insights by region and for the top eight US states. This data is valuable for businesses and policymakers to assess consumer behavior and predict economic trends.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index was forecast at 91.9, down from the previous reading of 93.8. This downward revision suggested weakening consumer optimism, which could signal softer spending ahead.

The forecast drop from 93.8 to 91.9 indicated declining consumer confidence.

Economists anticipate Consumer Confidence to drop even further to 88.8% in the upcoming report.

Wednesday, July 1

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

US manufacturing grew in May for the fifth month in a row, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 54%, its highest level since May 2022. New orders, production, exports, and imports all improved, showing stronger demand. However, employment and inventories remained weak, meaning factories were still cautious about hiring and stock levels. Prices continued to rise, but at a slower pace. Overall, the report pointed to steady manufacturing growth.

Economists expect the Manufacturing PMI to ease to 53.7 in the next report.

17:30 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

The Crude Oil Stocks Change Indicator is published weekly by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). It gauges the volume (barrels) of commercial crude oil held by US companies, influencing global oil prices. Increasing stocks signal reduced oil demand, potentially leading to a decline in oil barrel prices.

US crude oil inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week ending June 19, while refinery activity remained strong at 96.1% capacity. Crude imports increased, but gasoline production declined, and gasoline inventories rose. Distillate fuel inventories also increased, though they remained below the five-year average. Overall product demand was slightly stronger than last year, but gasoline demand stayed weaker, suggesting mixed energy market conditions.

Thursday, July 2

15:30 – Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report shows the number of new jobs added in the US across all non-agricultural sectors for a given month. An increase in this indicator can positively impact the value of the dollar.

The US labor market remained steady in May, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 172,000 and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%. Job gains were led by leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care, while financial activities lost jobs. Wage growth remained moderate, with average hourly earnings up 0.3% for the month and 3.4% over the year. Overall, the report pointed to stable but gradually cooling labor conditions.

Economists expect the US economy to add 114,000 jobs in the next report.

Company Earnings (June 29 – July 3)

Tuesday, June 30: NKE (NIKE, Inc.)

Tuesday, June 30: STZ (Constellation Brands, Inc.)

Wednesday, July 1: GIS (General Mills, Inc.)

Conclusion

Overall, this week’s data may offer important clues about the direction of growth, consumer demand, manufacturing strength, energy conditions, and the labor market. Stronger-than-expected results could support the CAD and USD, while weaker figures may increase concerns about slowing momentum. With several key reports and major earnings releases due, traders should remain alert for possible volatility across currencies, commodities, and equity markets.