The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for May 12 – 16, 2025

This week features a dense schedule of high-impact economic data and major earnings reports that could shape market sentiment. Key UK, US, and Australia indicators—including inflation, employment, GDP, and consumer sentiment—will offer critical insights into economic momentum and inflation risks. Market participants will closely watch these releases for clues on central bank policy directions and broader economic resilience.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

Thursday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Thursday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

Friday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (USD)

Tuesday, May 13

09:00 am – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

The Claimant Count Change indicates how many individuals have started claiming unemployment benefits in a specific month.

A rise in the claimant count signifies a labor market experiencing a downturn and might negatively impact the GDP.

Employment rose to 75.1%, unemployment held at 4.4%, and inactivity fell to 21.4%. Payrolled employees fell by 78,000 in March. Vacancies declined to 781,000. Wages grew 5.9% annually, with real pay up 2.1%. The Claimant Count rose to 1.77 million, up by 1,700.

Economists predict that 22,300 individuals will file for unemployment claims in April.

15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services, reflecting spending patterns of urban consumers and wage earners. It includes indexes like CPI-U for all urban consumers and CPI-W for urban wage earners, covering over 90% of the US population. CPI tracks inflation by comparing current prices to a reference base period.

CPI fell 0.1% in March, after a 0.2% rise in February. Annual inflation slowed to 2.4%. Energy prices dropped 2.4% due to a sharp fall in gasoline, while food prices rose 0.4%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose 0.1% in March and 2.8% over the year—the smallest annual core increase since March 2021.

Analysts anticipate a reading of 0.3%.

Thursday, May 15

04:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

The Australian Employment Change tracks the monthly variation in the number of officially employed individuals in the country. An increase in employment indicates a stronger labor market and can positively influence the value of the Australian dollar.

Employment rose by 32,200 to 14.54 million, below expectations but rebounding from February’s drop. Full-time jobs increased by 15,000 and part-time by 17,200. Over the year, employment grew by 308,000 (2.2%), slightly above the long-term average.

Economists project that employment will increase by 20,900 jobs.

09:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

GDP represents the value of all goods and services produced in the UK in the current month compared to the previous month. The GDP calculation also includes expenditure on manufactured goods and provided service GDP growth may have a positive effect on the pound quotes.

GDP grew by 0.5% in February, with all major sectors expanding. Services rose 0.3%, production 1.5%, and construction 0.4%. GDP was up 0.6% in the three months to February.

Analysts anticipate that there will be no changes.

15:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in prices received by producers for goods, services, and construction. The PPI covers a broad range of industries and is used alongside other economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures price changes from the buyer’s perspective. Growth in the index can have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

The Producer Price Index fell 0.4% in March, led by a 0.9% drop in goods prices, mainly due to lower energy and food costs. Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade) rose 0.1%. Annually, final demand prices increased 2.7%.

Economists expect a reading of 0.2%.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

The Retail Sales m/m reflects the change in US retail sales from one month to the next. This indicator is used to assess inflation, and an increase in retail sales can positively influence the value of the US dollar.

Retail and food services sales rose 1.4% in March and 4.6% year-over-year to $734.9 billion. Motor vehicle sales led annual gains, up 8.8%, while nonstore retailers rose 4.8%. Sales for Q1 2025 were up 4.1% from a year earlier.

Economists do not anticipate any changes.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

Initial claims fell by 13,000 to 228,000. The 4-week average rose slightly to 227,000. Insured unemployment dropped to 1.88 million, with the insured jobless rate down to 1.2%.

Analysts anticipate a figure of 229,000.

Friday, May 16

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly measure of how consumers perceive current and future economic conditions. Based on a survey of approximately 500 households, it provides insight into consumer confidence and spending behavior. The index is released in two stages: a preliminary estimate and a final revised figure, with the preliminary version typically having a stronger market impact. A higher-than-expected reading generally supports a stronger US dollar, while a weaker reading may signal economic concerns and pressure the dollar lower.

The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 52.2, its lowest since July 2022, amid rising economic concerns. The Expectations Index dropped 32% since January, the sharpest three-month decline since 1990.

Analysts anticipate a reading of 53.1%.

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (USD)

University of Michigan Inflation Expectations represent the anticipated percentage change in consumer prices over the coming 12 months, as reported by surveyed consumers. The data is released in two stages—Preliminary and Final (Revised), with the Preliminary report typically having greater market influence due to its earlier release.

A result above market expectations may support a stronger US dollar (bullish), while a lower-than-expected figure can signal weakness in the dollar (bearish).

Sentiment dropped 8% in April, with expectations down 32% since January—the sharpest decline since 1990. Inflation expectations surged to 6.5%, the highest since 1981, amid broad economic concerns and trade policy uncertainty.

Company Earnings (May 12 – 16)

Wednesday, May 14: CSCO (Cisco Systems Inc)

Thursday, May 15: BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Ltd)

Thursday, May 15: WMT (Walmart Inc)

Conclusion

With a packed calendar of key economic indicators and major corporate earnings, this week will be pivotal for gauging the health of global economies. Markets are likely to respond strongly to any surprises in inflation, employment, and consumer sentiment data, especially from the US and the UK. These releases will shape expectations around monetary policy and economic momentum in the months ahead.