The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for November 11 – 15, 2024 

This week brings a series of high-impact economic releases across major global economies, along with key company earnings reports. These events will provide fresh insights into employment, inflation, and consumer spending trends, which could influence currency valuations and broader market sentiment. Highlights include the UK’s Claimant Count Change on Tuesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, and Australia’s Employment Change on Thursday. Additionally, major corporate earnings announcements are scheduled from Vodafone, Cisco, Disney, and Alibaba, likely impacting sectoral sentiment and investor strategies. 

Tuesday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

Thursday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

09:00 am – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

The Claimant Count Change indicates how many individuals have started claiming unemployment benefits in a specific month.

A rise in the claimant count signifies a labor market experiencing a downturn and might negatively impact the GDP.

The Claimant Count rose in September to 1.797 million due to changes in earnings thresholds. Vacancies continued to fall, now at 841,000, but remain above pre-COVID levels.

Economists see a 30.5K reading.

15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USA)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services, reflecting spending patterns of urban consumers and wage earners. It includes indexes like CPI-U for all urban consumers and CPI-W for urban wage earners, covering over 90% of the US population. CPI tracks inflation by comparing current prices to a reference base period.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in September, consistent with August and July increases. Over the past year, the CPI increased 2.4%, the smallest annual rise since February 2021. Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose by 0.3% in September and 3.3% annually.

Economists project that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will maintain its current growth rate of 0.2%.

02:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

The Australia Employment Change tracks the monthly variation in the number of officially employed individuals in the country. An increase in employment indicates a stronger labor market and can positively influence the value of the Australian dollar.

Australia’s employment rose sharply by 64.1 thousand in September 2024, reaching a record 14.52 million and surpassing expectations of a 25 thousand increase.

Economists project an increase in employment by 25,200 jobs.

15:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in prices received by producers for goods, services, and construction. The PPI covers a broad range of industries and is used alongside other economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures price changes from the buyer’s perspective. Growth in the index can have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand was flat in September, following a 0.2% rise in August. Over the past year, the PPI rose 1.8%. In September, a 0.2% increase in service prices balanced a 0.2% drop in goods prices, with energy prices notably falling by 2.7%. Excluding food, energy, and trade, core PPI edged up 0.1% for the month, with a 3.2% annual increase.

09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures a country’s economic size and health over time, typically quarterly or annually. It can be calculated by totaling the value of goods and services produced, income earned, or spending. Household spending is the largest component, making up about two-thirds of GDP. Growth in GDP signals an expanding economy, but it doesn’t capture all aspects of economic well-being.

In August 2024, real GDP rose by 0.2%, rebounding from flat growth in July. Over the three months leading to August, GDP also saw a 0.2% gain compared to the prior three months. Services output contributed modestly, with a 0.1% rise, while construction output showed stronger growth at 1.0%. Production output, despite a 0.5% increase in August, remained flat over the quarter.

Economists anticipate a reading of 0.2%.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USA)

The Retail Sales m/m reflects the change in US retail sales from one month to the next. This indicator is used to assess inflation, and an increase in retail sales can positively influence the value of the US dollar.

In September 2024, US retail and food services sales rose 0.4% from the previous month and 1.7% year-over-year, reaching $714.4 billion.

Analysts project a reading of 0.3%.

Tuesday, November 12: Vodafone Group Public Limited Company (VOD)

Wednesday, November 13: Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

Thursday, November 14: The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

Friday, November 15: Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)

This week’s economic indicators and corporate earnings announcements will be crucial in shaping market expectations as we approach year-end. Investors will closely monitor employment data, inflation trends, and retail sales figures across the UK, US, and Australia to gauge economic resilience and potential central bank actions. Meanwhile, earnings reports from major firms like Cisco, Disney, and Alibaba will offer a glimpse into sectoral health and consumer demand. Together, these updates are set to influence currency valuations, investment strategies, and broader economic outlooks.