The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for November 18 – 22, 2024 

This week’s economic calendar is packed with high-impact events across major economies, including inflation data from Canada and the UK, unemployment claims from the US, and PMI reports from Europe. These indicators will provide crucial insights into economic trends and market sentiment. Additionally, corporate earnings from Walmart, Baidu, and NVIDIA will further shape the financial landscape, offering a glimpse into consumer and tech sector performance amid evolving global conditions.

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)
Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Friday 10:15 am (GMT+2) – Europe: French Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Friday 10:15 am (GMT+2) – Europe: French Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Friday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Europe: German Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Friday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Europe: German Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Friday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)
Friday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Retail Sales m/m (CAD)
Friday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Friday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time. It covers eight major categories: food, shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, recreation and education, and alcohol and tobacco.
In September 2024, Canada’s CPI rose 1.6% year-over-year, the slowest increase since 2021, driven by a 10.7% drop in gasoline prices. Essentials like rent (+21.0% since 2021) and groceries (+20.7%) remained elevated. Monthly CPI fell 0.4%, with energy costs leading the decline.
Economists see a 0.3% reading.

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)
The most common method for assessing inflation is the annual inflation rate, which looks at price changes over a 12-month period by comparing the current month’s prices with those from the same month the previous year. CPIH is the most comprehensive inflation measure, including the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) plus owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax.
In September 2024, UK inflation eased as CPIH rose 2.6% year-over-year, down from 3.1% in August, while CPI increased 1.7%, down from 2.2%.
Economists project that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will grow by 2.2%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.
In the week ending November 9, initial unemployment claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, while the four-week moving average fell by 6,250 to 221,000. The insured unemployment rate remained steady at 1.2%, with insured unemployment decreasing by 11,000 to 1.87 million.
Economists project that 220,000 individuals filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Retail Sales show the changes in the value of retail goods sold in the UK for the given month compared to the previous month. The calculation uses season-adjusted data from British retailers.
The indicator is used in forecasting, budgeting, and developing UK financial and economic policy. Retail sales growth can positively affect British pound quotes.
In September 2024, UK retail sales volumes rose 0.3%, with quarterly growth at 1.9% and annual growth at 3.9%. Non-food sales, led by computers and telecoms (+5.5%), offset a 2.4% drop in supermarket sales. Online sales grew 1.3%, with online transactions reaching 27.7% of total sales.

Analysts expect a decrease of 0.3%.

10:15 am – Europe: French Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that reflects the performance of the manufacturing sector. It is based on surveys of purchasing managers across key areas such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The Manufacturing PMI is widely used to gauge the overall health of the manufacturing economy and to anticipate economic trends, influencing business decisions and policymaking.
France’s manufacturing sector remained in contraction at 44.5 in October 2024, with new orders, especially exports, falling sharply. Production saw its steepest decline since January, prompting cuts in inventories, purchasing, and jobs. Despite lower input costs, weak demand continues to weigh on the outlook.
Economists expect a contractionary reading of 44.6.

10:15 am – Europe: French Flash Services PMI (EUR)
The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.
France’s services sector remained in contraction, with the PMI falling to 49.2 in October 2024, its lowest since March. Business activity declined modestly as new orders, especially from abroad, dropped sharply.

Analysts project a reading below 50.00.
10:30 am – Europe: German Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Germany’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 43.0 in October 2024, signaling slower declines in output and new orders. However, the sector remains in contraction, with falling prices and subdued confidence due to economic uncertainties and weak demand.
Analysts predict that Germany’s Manufacturing PMI will show a reading of 43.1.
10:30 am – Europe: German Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Germany’s Services PMI rose to 51.6 in October 2024, a three-month high, indicating modest growth in business activity despite weak demand. New business declined for the second consecutive month, leading to further job cuts. Input costs and output price inflation remained subdued, while business optimism improved slightly but remained below historical averages.
Economists expect a growth reading of 51.8 for the eighth consecutive month.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)
The UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 in October 2024, marking a contraction as output growth slowed and new orders declined. Input cost inflation eased to a 10-month low, while employment rose slightly amid subdued business optimism and weak export demand.
Economists expect a growth reading of 50.1.
11:30 am – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)
UK Services PMI slipped to 52.0 in October, the slowest growth since November 2023. New business growth weakened, export sales improved, and employment fell for the first time in 2024 due to budget constraints. Input cost inflation rose slightly, but output price increases remained modest. Business optimism declined amid Budget uncertainty and geopolitical concerns.

15:30 – Canada: Retail Sales m/m (CAD)
Canadian retail sales rose 0.4% in September 2024, following a revised 0.4% gain in August. Growth was driven by motor vehicles, clothing, and sporting goods, offsetting declines in fuel, food, and furniture. Annual sales increased by 1.4%.
Analysts expect retail sales to decrease slightly to 0.3%.
16:45 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI® rose to 48.5 in October, signaling a slower contraction. Output and new orders declined less sharply while inflationary pressures eased. Hurricanes caused supply chain delays, and uncertainty ahead of the Presidential Election impacted demand. Business sentiment improved, with optimism about post-election recovery.
Traders are eager to see if the Manufacturing PMI will rise into the growth area.
16:45 – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)
The S&P Global US Services PMI® posted 55.0 in October, indicating strong business activity driven by solid new orders despite weaker international demand. Employment declined slightly, and input cost inflation remained high, but output price inflation slowed to a 4.5-year low. Business confidence improved, supported by expectations of post-election demand growth and lower interest rates.
Traders expect that growth indicators will continue to show stability.

Tuesday, November 19: Walmart Inc. (WMT)
Thursday, November 21: Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)
Thursday, November 21: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

This week’s economic events and corporate earnings provide a comprehensive view of the global financial landscape, with key inflation, employment, and PMI data shaping economic narratives across major markets. Corporate earnings from industry leaders such as Walmart, Baidu, and NVIDIA offer additional insights into sectoral trends and consumer behavior. As markets digest these updates, investor focus remains on evolving economic conditions, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments, setting the stage for potential market movements in the weeks ahead.