The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for November 25 – 30, 2024

The upcoming week is packed with crucial economic releases and corporate earnings that could influence global markets. From consumer confidence in the US to inflation data in Australia and Germany and manufacturing trends in China, investors and policymakers will focus on these key indicators to gauge economic momentum and adjust strategies.
The week also features earnings reports from tech giants like HP Inc., Dell Technologies, and Analog Devices, offering insights into the performance and outlook of the technology sector amidst shifting macroeconomic conditions.

Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: CB Consumer Confidence (USD)
Wednesday 2:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)
Wednesday 3:00 am (GMT+2) – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)
Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Wednesday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
Thursday All Day – Europe: German Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Saturday 3:30 am (GMT+2) – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

17:00 – USA: CB Consumer Confidence (USD)
Consumer Confidence provides a comprehensive analysis of consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions. Published monthly, it examines consumer attitudes, spending intentions, vacation plans, and expectations surrounding inflation, stock prices, and interest rates. The report is segmented by demographics such as age and income and includes insights by region and for the top eight US states. This data is valuable for businesses and policymakers to assess consumer behavior and predict economic trends.
In October 2024, US consumer confidence rose sharply, with the index climbing to 108.7 from 99.2, the strongest gain since March 2021. Optimism grew around business conditions, job availability, and future economic prospects while recession fears declined. Inflation expectations edged up to 5.3%, but spending plans for durable goods and services showed cautious optimism. Confidence was highest among consumers aged 35-54 and higher-income households.
Economists predict a reading of 112.0.

2:30 am – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)
The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of goods and services across various categories of household expenditures. This data provides insight into consumer price trends, helping assess the cost of living and inflationary pressures. The CPI is used by policymakers, including central banks, to guide decisions on monetary policy, such as interest rates, and by businesses to adjust pricing strategies and contracts linked to inflation.
In September 2024, Australia’s CPI rose 2.1% annually, down from 2.7% in August. Key drivers included higher food (+3.3%), alcohol and tobacco (+6.3%), and housing (+1.6%), offset by falling transport (-3.8 and electricity (-24.1%) costs due to rebates. Fuel prices dropped 14%, while rent growth slowed to 6.6% with increased rent assistance. Holiday travel rose 2.5% annually, reflecting school holiday demand. Trimmed mean inflation eased to 3.2%.
Economists project that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will grow by 2.5%.
3:00 am – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reviews its interest rate policy every six weeks, setting the rate at which loans are provided to commercial banks. This rate is a key instrument of the RBNZ’s monetary policy, aimed at managing the strength of the New Zealand dollar (NZD). A rate increase typically strengthens the NZD by attracting foreign capital and boosting demand for the currency. Consequently, market participants closely monitor changes in the interest rate to determine their potential impact on NZD performance.
On October 9, the New Zealand Monetary Policy Committee reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 4.75%, citing subdued economic activity, weak consumer spending, and declining business investment.
Economists predict an additional reduction of 50 basis points.
15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.
Initial jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 213,000 for the week ending November 16, with the 4-week average dropping to 217,750.
Analysts expect a reading of 220,000.
17:00 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure the value of goods and services consumed by individuals and households. It’s a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large portion of economic activity in the US. The PCE is often used to track inflation trends, as it includes data on prices paid by consumers. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy decisions, aiming to maintain price stability in the economy.
In September, personal income rose by $71.6 billion (0.3%), while disposable personal income (DPI) increased by $57.4 billion (0.3%). Personal outlays grew by $106.3 billion (0.5%), driven by a $105.8 billion (0.5%) increase in consumer spending. The personal saving rate was 4.6%, with total savings at $1.00 trillion.
Economists expect a Core PCE reading of 0.3%.

All Day – Europe: German Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)
Germany’s inflation rate increased to 2.0% in October 2024, up from 1.6% in September, driven by rising food prices and above-average service costs. Energy prices continued to have a dampening effect, albeit less than in previous months. Month-on-month, consumer prices rose by 0.4%.
Analysts predict a monthly reading of -0.2%.

15:30 – Canada GDP m/m (CAD)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key measure of the economic output of a country or region. It represents the total value of goods and services produced minus intermediate consumption like raw materials or components. GDP can be calculated using methods such as the value-added approach, which looks at the contribution of each sector to the economy. When GDP grows, it indicates economic expansion, while a slowdown or negative GDP may signal a recession. It’s used as a benchmark for the overall health of an economy.
Analysts predict that Canada’s GDP will grow by 0.3%.

3:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly indicator of economic activity in China’s manufacturing sector, published by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It surveys 3,200 enterprises across various industries and regions, measuring key sub-indicators like output, new orders, and employment. A PMI reading above 50 indicates sector expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.
China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in October 2024, marking the first factory activity expansion since April. Output hit a six-month high, and new orders stabilized, though foreign sales continued to decline.
Economists expect a growth reading of 50.3.

Tuesday, November 26: HP Inc. (HPQ)
Tuesday, November 26: Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)
Tuesday, November 26: Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI)

This week offers a wealth of data and earnings reports poised to shape market dynamics. With major economic releases covering consumer confidence, inflation, labor market trends, and manufacturing activity across the globe, investors and policymakers are equipped with crucial tools to refine strategies and outlooks.
Additionally, earnings from HP Inc., Dell Technologies, and Analog Devices will provide valuable insights into the tech sector’s trajectory amidst evolving economic conditions. Stakeholders and traders should remain vigilant as these indicators and reports unfold, setting the stage for potential shifts in global economic sentiment and market performance.