The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for September 23-27, 2024

Several Key economic events this week will shape market dynamics, offering insights into manufacturing, services, inflation, and consumer sentiment across major economies. The indicators provide critical signals for economic health, guiding monetary policies, influencing currency movements, and reflecting business confidence. Fluctuations in manufacturing outputs, services performance, and inflationary pressures, coupled with consumer confidence data, are poised to reveal trends in global economic stability and growth projections, impacting decision-making across financial sectors.

Monday 10:15 am (GMT+3) – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Monday 10:15 am (GMT+3) – France: Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Monday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Monday 10:30am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Monday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)
Monday 11:30am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)
Monday 16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Monday 16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)
Tuesday 03:30 am (GMT+3) – Japan: Flash Manufacturing PMI (JPY)
Tuesday 07:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)
Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: CB Consumer Confidence (USD)
Wednesday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)
Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Final GDP q/q (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

10:15 am – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that reflects the performance of the manufacturing sector. It is based on surveys of purchasing managers across key areas such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The Manufacturing PMI is widely used to gauge the overall health of the manufacturing economy and to anticipate economic trends, influencing business decisions and policymaking.

France’s manufacturing sector experienced a deepening downturn in August, with new orders falling at a rate only previously seen during the global financial crisis or COVID-19. Production, purchasing activity, and employment levels dropped sharply, and manufacturers turned pessimistic about future output for the first time in 2024. Input costs continued to rise steeply, though selling prices remained restrained to maintain competitiveness. Weakened demand, both domestically and abroad, contributed to the sector’s decline, signaling challenging conditions ahead.
Analysts anticipate that the contraction that started in February 2023 will continue this week with a projected reading of 44.7.

10:15 am – France: Flash Service PMI (EUR)

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.
French service providers reported strong business growth in August, with the France Services PMI rising to 55.0, the highest since May 2022. Increased customer numbers drove the expansion, although new business growth was modest and primarily domestic. Employment growth slowed, and business confidence remained subdued due to political uncertainty and a weak real estate sector. Despite reduced input cost inflation, service providers raised their prices at the fastest rate since April.
Analysts forecast that the forthcoming release will indicate a 53.2 reading.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

The latest survey revealed worsening conditions in Germany’s manufacturing sector in August, with sharp declines in new orders, purchasing activity, and employment. The headline PMI fell to 42.4, its lowest since March, indicating deep contraction. Weak demand, particularly from the construction sector, led to steep drops in both domestic and export orders. While production volumes continued to fall, input costs remained steady, and factory gate prices showed the smallest decline in 15 months. Business confidence further weakened as manufacturers expressed growing concerns about future growth prospects.
Analysts expect a reading of 43.3, reflecting a modest improvement from the previous month.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

The survey showed slowing growth in Germany’s service sector in August, with business activity expanding at its weakest pace since March. New business nearly stalled, and export sales fell for the second consecutive month. Employment also declined for the second month in a row, while input cost inflation slowed to its lowest rate in three-and-a-half years. Output prices rose slightly faster than in July, and overall business confidence remained stable, with firms optimistic about future market conditions.
Analysts forecast a reading of 51.1, unchanged from the previous month.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

The UK manufacturing sector continued its recovery in August, with the PMI reaching a 26-month high of 52.5. Output, new orders, and employment grew for the fourth consecutive month, driven by strong domestic demand. However, export orders declined for the 31st straight month. Input and output price inflation eased, but manufacturers still faced rising costs for energy, metals, and shipping. Despite supply chain challenges, business sentiment remained positive, with 61% of firms expecting higher production in the next year.
Economists project ongoing improvement, with the upcoming release anticipated to show a reading of 53.2.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

The UK service sector saw continued recovery in August, with the PMI rising to 53.7, the highest since April. Business activity and new orders increased, driven by improved economic conditions and reduced political uncertainty. However, export growth remained weak, inflationary pressures eased, with input cost inflation reaching its lowest since January 2021. Employment grew for the eighth consecutive month, but challenges remained due to scarce candidate availability and wage pressures. Despite the positive outlook, confidence moderated slightly ahead of the Autumn Budget.
Analysts project an expansion in the upcoming release, with expectations pointing to a reading of 52.6.

16:45 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

In August, US manufacturing production fell for the first time in seven months as new orders and sales declined. Employment also dropped, reflecting spare capacity and reduced demand. Input cost inflation surged to a 16-month high, driven by rising shipping and labor costs. Firms cut back on purchasing activity and worked through backlogs while export orders continued to decline. Despite challenges, manufacturers remained cautiously optimistic about future output, though confidence slightly weakened from July.
Analysts anticipate a contractionary reading of 48.5 for the third consecutive month.

16:45 – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

The US service sector saw strong growth in August, with business activity rising at the fastest pace in nearly two-and-a-half years, supported by an increase in new orders. However, employment fell for the first time in three months. Input costs continued to rise sharply due to higher supplier charges and wages, though selling price inflation eased to a seven-month low. Despite challenges, service providers remained optimistic about future growth, driven by expectations of rising orders and potential interest rate cuts.
Growth in the services sector is anticipated to continue this week, with projections indicating a reading of 55.3.

03:30 am – Japan: Flash Manufacturing PMI (JPY)
In August, Japan’s manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilizing. Although new orders declined, they did so at a slower pace, and production increased for the second time in three months. Employment growth also improved, and companies increased input purchases for the first time since mid-2022. However, input price inflation surged to a 16-month high, driven by rising raw material costs and a weak yen. Despite inflation, firms kept their price increases modest to remain competitive. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 49.8, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity.
Analysts predict a 49.9 reading.

07:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

RBA’s Interest Rate Decision is one of the key instruments of the national monetary and credit policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
A higher interest rate leads to the Australian dollar appreciation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%. While inflation has decreased since its 2022 peak, it remains above the target range, with persistent pressures, particularly in the services sector. The RBA expects inflation to return to the 2-3% target range by late 2025, slightly later than the previous forecast. Economic uncertainty remains high, with risks to both inflation and growth. The RBA’s priority is returning inflation to target, and it will adjust policy as needed based on evolving economic conditions.
Economists anticipate that Australia’s cash rate will remain unchanged at 4.35%.

17:00 – USA: CB Consumer Confidence (USD)

Consumer Confidence provides a comprehensive analysis of consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions. Published monthly, it examines consumer attitudes, spending intentions, vacation plans, and expectations surrounding inflation, stock prices, and interest rates. The report is segmented by demographics such as age and income and includes insights by region and for the top eight US states. This data is valuable for businesses and policymakers to assess consumer behavior and predict economic trends.
In August, US consumer confidence rose to 103.3 from 101.9 in July, showing improved sentiment about current business conditions. However, concerns about the labor market increased, with fewer consumers viewing jobs as plentiful. Inflation expectations dropped to 4.9%, and fewer people expected stock prices to rise. While optimism about business conditions improved, assessments of personal financial situations were more mixed, with consumers remaining cautious about future income prospects.
Analysts forecast a reading of 103.5, reflecting the previous month’s figure of 103.3.

04:30 am – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of goods and services across various categories of household expenditures. This data provides insight into consumer price trends, helping assess the cost of living and inflationary pressures. The CPI is used by policymakers, including central banks, to guide decisions on monetary policy, such as interest rates, and by businesses to adjust pricing strategies and contracts linked to inflation.
In July 2024, Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.5% over the past year, down from 3.8% in June. Significant price increases were seen in housing (+4.0%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.8%), alcohol and tobacco (+7.2%), and transport (+3.4%). Electricity prices dropped by 5.1% due to government rebates, while gas prices rose by 2.7%. Automotive fuel prices increased by 4.0%, while food prices were driven up by a 7.5% rise in fruit and vegetable costs.
Economists project a decline, with expectations for a reading of 2.8%.

10:30 am – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)
On June 20, 2024, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowered its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25%, effective June 21. This decision comes as inflationary pressure has eased slightly, with inflation at 1.4% in May. The SNB aims to maintain appropriate monetary conditions and ensure inflation stays within the price stability range. Switzerland’s GDP growth was moderate in early 2024, with the SNB forecasting around 1% growth for the year and 1.5% for 2025. Global economic growth remains solid but faces risks from persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions.
Analysts are anticipating a third rate cut this year, projecting a 25 basis point reduction.

15:30 – USA: Final GDP q/q (USD)

In the second quarter of 2024, US real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.0%, up from 1.4% in the first quarter, driven by increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Current-dollar GDP rose by 5.5%, while personal income increased by $233.6 billion. Corporate profits rebounded, rising $57.6 billion after a decline in the first quarter. The personal saving rate fell to 3.3%. Inflation, as measured by the PCE price index, increased 2.5%, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 2.8%.
Analysts forecast a third consecutive quarterly decline in GDP, with a projected growth rate of 2.9%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.
In the week ending September 7, 2024, US initial unemployment claims rose slightly to 230,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week. The four-week moving average was 230,750. The insured unemployment rate remained steady at 1.2%. Meanwhile, unadjusted initial claims fell by 12,968 to 177,663. Insured unemployment for the week ending August 31 increased to 1.85 million. Notable increases in claims were seen in Massachusetts, while Texas and New York reported significant decreases.
Analysts predict 224,00 initial jobless claims.

15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key measure of the economic output of a country or region. It represents the total value of goods and services produced minus intermediate consumption like raw materials or components. GDP can be calculated using methods such as the value-added approach, which looks at the contribution of each sector to the economy. When GDP grows, it indicates economic expansion, while a slowdown or negative GDP may signal a recession. It’s used as a benchmark for the overall health of an economy.
In June 2024, Canada’s real GDP was essentially unchanged. Goods-producing industries declined by 0.4%, driven by decreases in manufacturing and construction, while services-producing industries grew by 0.1%, marking their third consecutive monthly increase. Manufacturing saw a notable 1.5% drop, and construction fell for the third straight month. However, utilities and real estate contributed to growth. In the second quarter of 2024, real GDP rose 0.5%, with public sector services, mining, and transportation leading the gains, while construction and manufacturing sectors faced declines.
Analysts predict a 0.1 reading.

15:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure the value of goods and services consumed by individuals and households. It’s a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large portion of economic activity in the US. The PCE is often used to track inflation trends, as it includes data on prices paid by consumers. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy decisions, aiming to maintain price stability in the economy.

In July 2024, US personal income increased by 0.3%, or $75.1 billion, while disposable personal income rose by $54.8 billion. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew by 0.5%, driven by higher spending on goods and services. The PCE price index increased 0.2%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) also rose by 0.2%. Real disposable income edged up 0.1%, and real PCE increased by 0.4%, with goods spending up 0.7% and services up 0.2%. The personal saving rate fell to 2.9%. Over the past year, the PCE price index increased 2.5%.
Economists predict a slight increase of 0.2%.

Thursday, September 26: COST (Costco Wholesale Corp)

This week’s economic events will significantly influence market movements, offering insights into the health of key sectors such as manufacturing, services, and inflation across global economies. The data will guide central bank decisions, impact currency markets, and reflect business and consumer sentiment. As manufacturing, services, and inflationary pressures unfold, the results will provide critical signals on economic trends and stability, influencing strategic decisions within financial markets and broader economic policies.