The week ahead – US GDP & PCE Price Index

Key Upcoming Events:

• US GDP Growth Rate 2^nd Est. Q1 15:30 (GMT+3) Thursday 30^th May
• EU Inflation Rate Flash 12:00 (GMT+3) Friday 31^st May
• US PCE Price Index 15:30 (GMT+3) Friday 31^st May

What’s Ahead for the U.S.: In a holiday-shortened week due to Memorial Day, key updates include the second Q1 GDP estimate on Thursday and April’s core PCE price index on Friday. A lower PCE and softened income/spending data might revive rate cut bets, impacting the dollar. Fed officials’ remarks will be closely watched for policy hints ahead of the June 12th Fed interest rate decision.

Eurozone Inflation Data: Key updates include preliminary May CPI numbers on Friday, crucial for the ECB’s June 6th rate decision. Earlier in the week, German CPI figures on Wednesday will hint at overall Eurozone inflation. Despite expectations of a June rate cut, any upside surprises in the European CPI could reduce the likelihood, supporting the euro.

Japan’s Economic Indicators: Japan faces a contracting Q1 economy and slowing inflation, casting doubt on a summer BoJ rate hike. Tokyo’s May CPI, industrial production, and retail sales data will be critical in shaping market expectations and determining if the BoJ will maintain its current stance or consider policy adjustments.

Australia’s CPI and Chinese PMIs: Australia’s monthly CPI rates are due Wednesday, crucial for the RBA’s rate decisions. Persistent inflation could extend the Aussie’s recovery. Additionally, Australian retail sales and Chinese PMIs for May will influence the AUD. Disappointing retail sales might support calls for an RBA cut, especially if inflation data shows a decline.

This week the markets will be closely following economic data & earnings reports such as:

Monday:

• US Holiday – Memorial Day
• UK Holiday – Spring Bank Holiday
• DE Ifo Business Climate MAY

Tuesday:

• AU Retail Sales MoM Prel APR
• US CB Consumer Confidence MAY
• US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index MAY

Wednesday:

• AU Monthly CPI Indicator APR
• JP Consumer Confidence MAY
• DE GfK Consumer Confidence JUN
• DE Inflation Rate Prel MAY       
• Earnings Reports:
  • Salesforce, Inc.
  • Agilent Technologies, Inc.

Thursday:

• EU Economic Sentiment MAY
• EU Unemployment Rate APR
• US GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1          
• US Pending Home Sales APR
• Earnings Reports:
  • Costco Wholesale Corporation
  • Dell Technologies Inc.
  • Marvell Technology, Inc.
  • Veeva Systems Inc.

Friday:

• JP Unemployment Rate APR
• JP Tokyo CPI MAY
• JP Retail Sales APR
• CN NBS Manufacturing PMI MAY
• EU Inflation Rate Flash MAY
• CA GDP Growth Rate Q1
• US PCE Price Index APR            
• US Personal Income APR
• US Personal Spending APR

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