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5 April 2024 | FXGT.com

Traders of USD/JPY Watchful as Officials Speak, NFP Data in Focus

  • Weekly Loss for the Dollar: The dollar experienced a volatile week, dropping from a five-month high to a two-week low after surprising slowdown in U.S. services growth fuelled rate cut expectations. However, it rebounded following comments from Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari suggesting rate cuts may not be necessary this year if inflation remains stagnant.
  • JPY Strengthens Amid Verbal Interventions: The Japanese Yen saw an appreciation, reaching ¥151 per USD, its highest in two weeks. This movement is attributed to increased verbal interventions by Japanese authorities aimed at curbing the yen’s sharp decline.
  • Fed Officials’ Mixed Messages: Hawkish comments from Fed officials like Neel Kashkari and Thomas Barkin introduce uncertainty regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, impacting USD dynamics and bond yields.
  • Risk-Off Mood Prevails: Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and unrest in the Middle East, have contributed to a risk-off market sentiment, bolstering demand for the safe-haven JPY.
  • Japanese Authorities’ Stance on Yen: Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the government’s commitment to address rapid yen depreciation. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at the possibility of a rate hike in the coming months due to inflation expectations and wage increases.
  • Threshold for Intervention: According to Hiroshi Watanabe, a former top currency diplomat, the government is likely to refrain from direct intervention unless the yen weakens beyond ¥155 per dollar. This sets a potential trigger point for more concrete actions to support the yen.
  • US Jobs Report on the Horizon: The market eagerly awaits the U.S. employment report, with analysts predicting the addition of 200,000 jobs in March. This data is anticipated to provide significant momentum and potentially influence USD/JPY dynamics.
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