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22 March 2024 | FXGT.com

US Oil Retesting Support of Previous Breakout level.

  • Yearly and March Performance: US crude oil prices have risen by 12% this year to reach a new four-month high, with a 3% increase since March’s start, amid Middle Eastern tensions affecting supply.
  • WTI Crude Oil Maintains Bullish Outlook: Despite a recent dip, WTI crude oil trend remains bullish with the recent break above $81 pointing to a continuation of the established uptrend in place since January, with prices moving above key moving averages.
  • Daily Chart Uptrend Structure: The daily trend features well-defined tops and bottoms within an upward trendline channel, suggesting a structured and sustained uptrend with trendline support at $79.
  • Decreased Volatility: The Average True Range (ATR) indicator highlights a recent reduction in volatility, currently at $1.73, down from above $2 during February.
  • Resistance Break and Retracement: The recent push above $81 resistance lacked follow through momentum, leading to a top formation and a retracement from the $83 high, as indicated by an evening star candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe.
  • Testing Short-Term Support: The market is currently at a pivotal point, testing the short-term support level at $80.50, coinciding with the 4-Hour moving average channel. This level is critical for buyers seeking to reignite the upward momentum.
  • Key Resistance Levels: Short-term resistance is identified at $81.80, with further resistance at the current high of $83. The trend’s strength hinges on maintaining above the $81 daily breakout point.
  • Potential Correction: A drop below $80.50 support may signal a weakening trend, possibly shifting momentum to bearish and extending the correction toward the $79 level, coinciding with the daily moving average channel — a significant level for assessing long-term buying interest.
  • Trend Status: The uptrend is considered intact as long as prices remain above $79. However, falling below $80.50 could reduce the momentum necessary for sustaining the current uptrend’s pace, suggesting potential downward pressure below this point.

US OIL 4 Hour Chart.

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