Bitcoin Faces Bearish Pressure as ETF Outflows Surge Despite Growing Institutional Interest

Introduction

Bitcoin remains under selling pressure as significant ETF outflows and weakening technical indicators weigh on market sentiment. Despite three consecutive weeks of losses, long-term institutional interest continues to grow, with BlackRock exploring another Bitcoin ETF and JPMorgan forecasting strong returns over the next decade. Meanwhile, new US stablecoin regulations and speculation surrounding a potential Tesla–SpaceX merger highlight ongoing developments across the cryptocurrency industry. These factors present a mixed outlook as investors assess Bitcoin’s next potential move.

Bitcoin ETFs Hit by $635M Sell-Off as October Turns Red

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $635 million in withdrawals on Thursday, October 22, marking their largest single-day outflow since June 25. The sell-off ended a three-day streak of inflows totaling $1.08 billion and pushed October’s net outflows to $175 million. Despite the setback, Bitcoin ETFs remained positive for the week, attracting $443 million. Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell to around $81,783, losing approximately 1% in 24 hours. Other cryptocurrency ETFs also faced selling pressure, with Ether losing $111 million, Solana $9 million, and Hyperliquid $8 million. XRP ETFs were the exception, attracting $3.6 million in new investments.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin has recorded three consecutive weeks of losses following its September 21 peak of $87,388.29, reflecting sustained selling pressure and weakening market sentiment. At the time of writing, BTCUSD is trading at $80,765.40, below both the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). However, the 20-period EMA remains above the 50-period EMA, indicating that the broader bullish structure remains technically intact, although recent price action suggests increasing downside risks.

Momentum indicators support the bearish outlook. The Momentum oscillator has moved below its 100 baseline, pointing to continued downward pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that sellers are gaining control as buying momentum weakens.

On the upside, a sustained break above the $81,925.81 resistance level could signal a potential recovery and bring the $84,891.54 level into focus. A decisive move above this resistance could strengthen bullish momentum, opening the way for further gains toward $87,388.29 and $88,607.93.

On the downside, a decisive break below the $79,792.50 support level would confirm further technical weakness and increase the likelihood of an extended decline. In this scenario, the next downside targets are identified at $77,941.83, followed by $74,960.82 and $73,341.56.

Overall, the technical outlook for BTCUSD has turned bearish in the short term, with prices trading below both key moving averages and momentum indicators favoring further downside. However, the absence of a bearish EMA crossover suggests that the broader bullish structure has not yet been fully invalidated. A sustained break below key support levels would further strengthen the bearish scenario.

BlackRock Eyes Third Bitcoin ETF, Snubs Solana and XRP

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has filed to launch its third Bitcoin ETF, offering investors some protection against potential losses in exchange for limited gains. The proposed fund would use options contracts linked to BlackRock’s existing Bitcoin ETF rather than holding Bitcoin directly. However, the protection is not guaranteed, and investors could still face significant losses. Despite expanding its cryptocurrency investment products, BlackRock continues to focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum, with no plans announced for Solana or XRP ETFs.

JPMorgan Tips Bitcoin to Outshine Stocks and Gold

JPMorgan expects Bitcoin to outperform US stocks and gold over the next decade, forecasting average annual returns of 10%, compared with 7.5% for major U.S. stocks and 5.5% for gold. The bank included Bitcoin in its long-term investment outlook for the first time, signaling growing recognition of the cryptocurrency. However, JPMorgan warned that Bitcoin remains highly volatile and risky. In its most optimistic scenario, annual returns could reach 16.6%, while its worst-case forecast suggests losses of 11.2% per year.

US Sets New Rules for Stablecoins Under GENIUS Act

US banking regulators have finalized new rules for stablecoins under the GENIUS Act, set to take effect on January 18, 2027. Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value, typically linked to the US dollar. Under the new regulations, issuers must hold sufficient reserves to fully back their stablecoins and generally allow customers to redeem them within two business days. The rules also prohibit issuers from paying interest simply for holding stablecoins. The framework aims to improve consumer protection, strengthen financial stability, and provide clearer regulations for banks and cryptocurrency companies operating in the United States.

Tesla–SpaceX Merger Could Create a Bitcoin Giant

Elon Musk is considering a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX, which would create one of the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holders. Together, the companies own 30,221 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $2.5 billion. Tesla holds 11,509 Bitcoin, while SpaceX owns 18,712. The merger would combine these holdings under one company, increasing its influence in the cryptocurrency market. However, Musk emphasized that no agreement has been reached, and neither company has announced plans to buy or sell Bitcoin. If approved, the merger would bring greater financial transparency to their combined cryptocurrency holdings.

Conclusion

Bitcoin faces continued downside pressure as ETF outflows and bearish technical indicators raise concerns about further price declines. However, growing institutional interest and regulatory developments suggest that the broader cryptocurrency market continues to evolve. With BTCUSD trading near important support levels, investors will closely monitor price movements, ETF flows, and market sentiment for signs of either a recovery or a deeper correction. While the short-term outlook remains bearish, Bitcoin’s longer-term prospects continue to attract attention.