Markets Navigate Inflation, Growth and Earnings Crosscurrents (September 28-October 2, 2026, Recap)

Overview

The past week featured several important economic developments that influenced currencies, commodities, and equity markets. Key events included an interest rate increase in Australia, stronger inflation data, updated US GDP and inflation figures, crude oil inventory data, and the latest US employment report. Markets also reacted to notable earnings releases from Jefferies, Micron, and Nike. Overall, the week reflected continued concerns over inflation, mixed economic growth signals, and uneven performance across global financial markets.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Tuesday, September 29

07:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

The Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.60% because inflation remains too high. Higher global energy prices, strong demand for technology goods, business cost pressures and stronger-than-expected inflation in Australia have increased concerns that price rises could persist. Although economic growth and the labor market are slowing, business investment remains strong, and the economy is still facing capacity pressures. The Board believes higher interest rates are needed to reduce demand and bring inflation back toward its target. It said further rate rises are possible if inflation does not ease sufficiently.

AUD/USD fell 0.46% on the day.

Wednesday, September 30

04:30 am – Australia: CPI m/m (AUD)

Australia’s inflation rate increased in August 2026. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks changes in household prices, rose 4.0% over the year, up from 3.5% in July. Prices increased 0.4% during August, or 0.7% after seasonal adjustment. Transport recorded one of the largest annual increases at 5.6%, while housing prices rose 5.7%. Alcohol and tobacco and education also increased strongly. Food prices were 3.0% higher than a year earlier. Meanwhile, trimmed mean inflation, which removes unusually large price movements to show underlying inflation trends, remained steady at 3.6%.

AUD/USD declined by 0.58% on the day.

15:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

In August 2026, Americans’ personal income rose by $66.6 billion, or 0.2%, while disposable income after taxes increased by 0.3%. Consumer spending grew much faster, rising $190.8 billion, or 0.9%. Spending increased on both goods and services, with goods accounting for $114.1 billion of the gain and services for $76.7 billion. Income growth was mainly driven by higher compensation and government social benefits. Americans saved $990.2 billion during the month, equal to 4.1% of disposable income. Overall, the report shows that consumer spending grew considerably faster than income in August.

USD/JPY edged up 0.08% on the day.

15:30 – USA: Final GDP q/q (USD)

The US economy grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter of 2026, according to the BEA’s latest estimate. Growth was supported by stronger consumer spending, business investment, and exports, while rising imports reduced overall GDP. Service industries were major contributors, particularly real estate, information, finance, and insurance. Corporate profits increased by $384 billion, while real gross domestic income rose 2.6%. Inflation remained elevated: the PCE price index increased 5.0%, while core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 3.3%. Overall, the report showed solid economic growth alongside continued price pressures.

GBP/USD rose 0.24% on the day.

17:30 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

US refinery activity slowed in the week ending September 25, with crude processing falling to 16.3 million barrels per day and capacity use at 92.5%. Commercial crude oil inventories rose by 0.9 million barrels to 427.3 million, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined and remained below their five-year averages. Overall commercial petroleum inventories fell by 7 million barrels. Meanwhile, fuel demand remained firm, with total petroleum products supplied up 2.1% from a year earlier.

USOil rose 1.62% on the day.

Friday, October 2

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The US labor market was largely unchanged in September 2026. Employers added 29,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate held at 4.2%, with 7.1 million people unemployed. Hiring was modest across most industries, although health care added 17,000 jobs and construction gained 11,000. Manufacturing employment was also little changed. Labor force participation remained steady at 61.8%. Wage growth was modest, with average hourly earnings rising 0.1% in September and 3.0% over the past year. Overall, the report points to a relatively stable but slower-moving labor market.

EUR/USD edged up 0.08% on the day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil

1. Crude oil prices declined 1.30% over the past week

2. Brent Oil

1. Brent was up 5.11% compared to the previous week

3. Gold

1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 3.37% weekly loss

4. Silver

1. XAGUSD declined by 6.12% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 fell 0.31%

2. DJIA was down 1.23%

3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 0.54%

Top Gainers

1. Stablecoin Development Corporation (SDEV) 402.01%

2. Armada Acquisition Corp. II (XRPN) 272.59%

3. Kodiak Sciences Inc (KOD) 191.96%

Top Losers

1. TEN Holdings, Inc. (XHLD) -96.23%

2. Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (NCI) -94.12%

3. Rich Sparkle Holdings Limited (ANPA) -91.33%

Company Earnings (September 28-October 2)

Monday, September 28: JEF (Jefferies Financial Group Inc.)

Wednesday, September 30: MU (Micron Technology, Inc.)

Thursday, October 1: NKE (NIKE, Inc.)

Jefferies Financial Group reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, earning $1.08 per share versus the $1.00 analysts expected. Revenue increased 8.5% from a year earlier to $2.22 billion, also slightly beating forecasts. Looking ahead, analysts expect earnings per share to rise about 15.7% next year, from $4.09 to $4.73.

JEF shares fell 3.59% over the past week.

Micron reported record quarterly results, with revenue of $54.2 billion and stronger-than-expected profits, driven by booming AI demand. Management expects further growth in fiscal 2027, supported by strong HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and data center sales. However, higher capital spending and operating costs could pressure margins in the near term.

MU edged down 0.68% over the past week.

Nike expects a difficult fiscal 2027, with revenue falling by high single digits and profits declining faster. Weakness in China and lifestyle brands such as Jordan remains a major challenge. However, performance categories are growing, and Nike’s restructuring plan is expected to deliver about $2.5 billion in long-term savings.

NKE shares fell 5.26% over the past week.

Conclusion

Overall, the week highlighted a mixed global economic picture. Inflation remained a key concern, prompting tighter policy in Australia, while US data showed steady growth but a softer labor market. Financial markets reacted unevenly, with mixed moves across currencies, commodities, stocks, and major company earnings. Investors are likely to remain focused on inflation, interest rates, and signs of slowing economic momentum.