AUDUSD Eyes Higher Ground as Bulls Regain Control Amid Global Uncertainty

The AUDUSD pair has caught the market’s attention following a sharp rebound from its April 9 low, supported by strong bullish price action and a shift in sentiment. Technically, the trend has been reinforced by classic reversal patterns and sustained upward momentum as buyers continue to push the pair higher. On the macro front, Australia’s job market remains firm despite a slight rise in the unemployment rate, while US economic data shows underlying strength even as tariff-driven uncertainty builds. With global risks rising and economic signals diverging, traders are watching the pair closely for signs of follow-through or reversal in the days ahead.

Chart Analysis

The AUDUSD pair has established a robust upward trend since forming a low at 0.59124 on April 9, characterized by a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows—classic signals of sustained bullish momentum.

The initial reversal was technically anchored by the appearance of an Inverted Hammer candlestick, followed by the “Three White Soldiers” formation, which added conviction to the trend shift. This sequence confirmed a positive change in market structure and laid the foundation for a continued upward trajectory.

Momentum indicators remain aligned with the bullish outlook. The Momentum Oscillator continues to hold above the 100 threshold, reflecting persistent buying pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the neutral 50 level, further validating the prevailing strength in the trend.

That said, the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has not yet completed a bullish crossover above the 50-period EMA. This suggests a degree of caution is warranted, as the current trend, while constructive, has yet to achieve full technical confirmation through medium-term moving average alignment.

Key Resistance Levels

Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:

0.64069: The initial resistance level is set at 0.64069, reflecting the daily high marked February 21.

0.65538: The second price target is set at 0.65538, representing the weekly resistance, R2, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

0.66209: The third price objective is observed at 0.66209, corresponding to a weekly low.

0.68085: An additional upside target is projected at 0.68085, mirroring the weekly resistance, R3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

Key Support Levels

Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:

0.62740: The initial support level is estimated at 0.62740, representing a weekly low coinciding with the 20-period Exponential Moving Average.

0.61859: The second level is seen at 0.61859, corresponding to the low point marked March 4.

0.60349: The third support level is identified at 0.60349, reflecting the weekly support, S1, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

0.59124: An additional downside target is 0.59124, mirroring the trough from April 9.

Fundamentals

Australia’s unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.1% in March despite a strong labor market that added 32,000 new jobs. The rise was largely due to 3,000 people leaving the workforce, while participation ticked up to 66.8%. Weather disruptions, including Cyclone Alfred, led to fewer total hours worked. The data comes amid broader economic uncertainty, with job figures likely to influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next rate decision on May 20, alongside inflation and global trade tensions.

Despite growing recession fears and market volatility triggered by President Trump’s tariff hikes, recent data still points to a solid US economy—with low unemployment, steady job growth, and cooling inflation. Economists say this strength may be partly due to a lag in official data, which can overlook fast-moving changes in sentiment and consumer behavior. Real-time indicators like stock market moves and consumer surveys are flashing warning signs, though their predictive power isn’t foolproof. While the economy appears resilient for now, experts caution that the true impact of tariffs may show up in the months ahead.

Conclusion

AUDUSD continues to show strength following its early April reversal, with bullish momentum supported by technical signals and improving market sentiment. While the trend remains upward, caution is warranted amid rising global risks and mixed economic signals. Australia’s job market appears resilient, but modest signs of strain are emerging, and the full effects of US tariffs may take time to filter through. As traders weigh shifting fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainty, price action around key support and resistance levels will be critical in determining whether the pair extends its rally or faces renewed pressure.