The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for August 3 – 7, 2026

Overview

Global markets face a busy week from August 3 to 7, with several high-impact economic releases from the United States, New Zealand, and Canada. Key events include manufacturing data, employment reports, unemployment claims, crude oil inventories, and the closely watched US non-farm payrolls report. Investors will also monitor major corporate earnings, as these economic and company updates could drive volatility across currencies, commodities, and stock markets.

High Impact Economic Events

Monday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Wednesday 01:45 am (GMT+3) – New Zealand: Employment Change q/q (NZD)

Wednesday 17:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT3) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Monday, August 3

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

In June 2026, US manufacturing expanded for the sixth consecutive month, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 53.3%, slightly below May. New orders and production continued to grow, while employment remained in mild contraction. Inventories and imports increased, supplier deliveries slowed, and customer inventories stayed low, supporting the outlook for future production. Prices remained elevated but eased significantly, while exports returned to contraction.

Economists expect the Manufacturing PMI to rise to 54.0% in the next release.

Wednesday, August 5

01:45 am – New Zealand: Employment Change q/q (NZD)

In New Zealand, employment change measures how the number of employed people shifts from one quarter to the next. It is tracked through the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES), which collects data on jobs, wages, and paid working hours across economically significant businesses. The QES is an important tool for assessing New Zealand’s labor market, as it offers a timely snapshot of employment trends and broader economic conditions.

In May 2026, the number of filled jobs in New Zealand rose by 0.3% from April to 2.35 million, driven mainly by growth in service industries. Employment was also 0.7% higher than a year earlier, with the strongest gains in public administration, health care, education, and financial services.

Economists expect employment to increase by 0.1% in the next report.

17:30 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

The Crude Oil Stocks Change Indicator is published weekly by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). It gauges the volume (barrels) of commercial crude oil held by US companies, influencing global oil prices. Increasing oil stocks signal reduced oil demand, potentially leading to a decline in oil prices per barrel.

In the week ending July 24, 2026, US refineries increased activity and operated at 97.2% of capacity. Crude oil inventories fell sharply by 7.2 million barrels and remained below their five-year average. Gasoline and distillate production increased, while crude oil imports declined. Overall fuel demand was slightly weaker than a year earlier, although demand for distillate fuel and jet fuel increased.

Thursday, August 6

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

In the week ending July 25, initial unemployment claims rose by 9,000 to 197,000, although the four-week average declined. Continuing claims also fell to 1.78 million, while the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2%, suggesting the labor market remained relatively stable.

Economists expect initial unemployment claims to rise to 205,000 in the next report.

Friday, August 7

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Change in the number of employed individuals in the previous month. In general, when the actual figure is greater than the forecast, it is positive for the currency.

In June 2026, employment in Canada was largely unchanged, rising by just 18,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 6.5%, while average hourly wages increased by 3.3% from a year earlier. Job gains among young and core-aged workers were partly offset by losses among workers aged 55 and older. Employment grew in accommodation and food services but declined in manufacturing, agriculture, and utilities.

Economists expect the economy to add 15,000 jobs in the next Labour Force Survey report.

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report reveals the number of new jobs created during the given month in all non-agricultural sectors of the US.

Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

In June 2026, the US economy added 57,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate remained broadly stable at 4.2%. Hiring increased in professional and business services, social assistance, and health care, but leisure and hospitality lost jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% during the month and by 3.5% from a year earlier. Job growth for April and May was also revised down by a combined 74,000.

Economists expect the US economy to add 88,000 jobs in the next payroll report.

Company Earnings (August 3 – 7)

Tuesday, August 4: SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.)

Tuesday, August 4: CAT (Caterpillar Inc.)

Tuesday, August 4: MRK (Merck & Co., Inc.)

Tuesday, August 4: MCD (McDonald’s Corporation)

Tuesday, August 4: PFE (Pfizer Inc.)

Tuesday, August 4: BP (BP p.l.c.)

Conclusion

Overall, the week is likely to bring increased market volatility as investors assess manufacturing activity, labor-market conditions, oil inventories, and major corporate earnings. Friday’s US and Canadian employment reports may have the strongest influence on the US dollar, Canadian dollar, stock markets, and expectations for future monetary policy.