The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for September 28-October 2, 2026

Overview

Markets are set for a busy week, with several major economic releases from Australia and the United States likely to drive volatility across currencies, equities and commodities. Key events include the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision, Australian inflation data, US core PCE inflation, final GDP, crude oil inventories and the closely watched Non-Farm Payrolls report. Investors will also monitor earnings from Jefferies, Micron Technology and Nike.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 07:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

Wednesday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: CPI m/m (AUD)

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Final GDP q/q (USD)

Wednesday 17:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Tuesday, September 29

07:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

The interest rate decision is a key instrument of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s national monetary and credit policy.

A higher interest rate leads to the Australian dollar appreciation.

On August 11, 2026, the Reserve Bank left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%.

Inflation was still too high, although parts of the economy had begun to slow. Higher oil and energy prices were adding to inflation, and some businesses were passing their higher costs on to customers.

Interest rates had already been increased three times during the year, and those increases were starting to take effect. Consumer spending was slowing, housing prices were falling in some cities, fewer new home loans were being taken out, and the labor market had weakened slightly.

However, the Reserve Bank remained concerned that inflation could stay high for longer than expected. The Middle East conflict and disruptions to global oil supplies were expected to keep energy prices elevated, while weak productivity growth in Australia continued to limit economic growth.

The Bank expected inflation to fall gradually, but it did not expect it to return to around the middle of its target range until late 2027.

At the time, the Bank believed interest rates were high enough to help slow the economy and reduce inflation, so it kept the cash rate at 4.35% while it assessed how economic conditions were developing.

It also warned that interest rates could rise again if inflation remained stronger than expected.

The decision to keep rates unchanged was unanimous.

Economists expect the RBA to increase interest rates by 25 basis points.

Wednesday, September 30

04:30 am – Australia: CPI m/m (AUD)

The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of goods and services across various categories of household expenditures. This data provides insight into consumer price trends, helping assess the cost of living and inflationary pressures. Policymakers, including central banks, use the CPI to guide monetary policy decisions, such as interest rates, and businesses use it to adjust pricing strategies and inflation-linked contracts.

On August 26, 2026, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that annual inflation had eased to 3.5% in July, down from 3.8% in June. The biggest price increases came from housing, food and recreation. However, underlying inflation remained high, with trimmed mean inflation unchanged at 3.6%. Prices also rose 0.6% during July after seasonal adjustment. Overall, inflation had slowed slightly, but price pressures remained strong across the economy.

Economists expect the monthly CPI to rise by 0.5% in the next report.

15:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure the value of goods and services consumed by individuals and households. It’s a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large portion of economic activity in the US. The PCE is often used to track inflation trends, as it includes data on prices paid by consumers. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy decisions, aiming to maintain price stability in the economy.

In July 2026, US personal income rose by 0.4%, while disposable income after taxes increased by 0.5%. Consumer spending grew more slowly, rising 0.2%. Americans spent more on services, but less on goods. Personal savings totaled $712 billion, with the savings rate at 3.0%. Overall, household incomes continued to grow faster than spending, while consumers shifted more of their spending toward services.

Economists expect core PCE to rise by 0.3% in the next report.

15:30 – USA: Final GDP q/q (USD)

The Gross Domestic Product q/q (GDP) represents the valuation of all goods and services produced in the United States in the current quarter compared to the previous one.

GDP growth may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

Although these are quarterly figures, they are presented in an annualized form (quarterly change multiplied by four). GDP is published in three stages—Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release comes first and typically has the strongest market impact.

In the first quarter of 2026, the US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.1%, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter. Growth was supported by business investment, exports, government spending and consumer spending. The estimate was revised higher mainly because imports were lower than previously thought. Stronger industries included information, government, professional services and manufacturing, while retail, wholesale trade, finance and insurance weakened.

Economists expect final GDP to grow by 1.5% in the next report.

17:30 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

The Crude Oil Stocks Change Indicator is published weekly by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). It gauges the volume (barrels) of commercial crude oil held by US companies, influencing global oil prices. Increasing stocks signal reduced oil demand, potentially leading to a decline in oil barrel prices.

For the week ending September 18, 2026, US refinery activity slowed, while crude oil inventories rose by 3 million barrels. Gasoline and distillate stocks fell and remained below their five-year averages. Crude oil imports also dropped sharply. Overall petroleum demand was slightly higher than a year earlier, supported by strong growth in jet fuel use.

Analysts expect crude oil inventories to decrease by 701,000 barrels in the next release.

Friday, October 2

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report shows the number of new jobs added in the US across all non-agricultural sectors for a given month. An increase in this indicator can positively impact the value of the dollar.

In August 2026, the US economy added 162,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%. Job growth was strongest in restaurants, local government, education, and manufacturing, while the information sector lost jobs. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% during the month and were 3.1% higher than a year earlier. Overall, the

labor market remained fairly steady, with hiring stronger than in recent months.

Economists expect the U.S. economy to add 98,000 jobs in the next report.

Company Earnings (September 28-October 2)

Monday, September 28: JEF (Jefferies Financial Group Inc.)

Wednesday, September 30: MU (Micron Technology, Inc.)

Thursday, October 1: NKE (NIKE, Inc.)

Conclusion

Overall, the week could bring increased market volatility as investors react to major inflation, growth, employment, and interest rate data. The RBA decision and Australian CPI will be key for the Australian dollar, while US core PCE, GDP, and Non-Farm Payrolls could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy and the US dollar. Earnings from Jefferies, Micron, and Nike may also create company-specific moves in equity markets.