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Traders face a packed economic calendar this week, with several high-impact releases that could drive volatility across major currency pairs. Wednesday kicked off with Australia’s CPI and New Zealand’s rate decision, both of which will set the tone for Asia-Pacific currencies. The U.S. follows with preliminary GDP and jobless claims on Thursday, while Friday delivers a flurry of top-tier data — including Canada’s GDP, Germany’s CPI, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE. China rounds out the week with manufacturing PMI figures early Saturday.
Against this backdrop, AUDUSD remains in focus as the pair continues to trend higher following April’s inflation report. Here’s a closer look at the technical setup, key price levels, and macro context driving the Australian dollar.
Wednesday 4:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)
Wednesday 5:00 am (GMT+3) – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Prelim GDP q/q (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday All Day – Germany: Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
Saturday 4:30 am (GMT+3) – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
Since establishing a cycle low at 0.59124 on April 9, AUDUSD has confirmed a well-defined bullish trend, characterized by a consistent series of higher highs and higher lows — a classic indication of upward momentum.
The initial reversal was technically validated by the emergence of an Inverted Hammer, followed by a bullish continuation in the form of a “Three White Soldiers” pattern. These formations collectively signaled a decisive shift in market sentiment and marked the transition toward a constructive price structure.
Trend confirmation has since been reinforced by a bullish crossover of the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages — commonly referred to as a “Golden Cross” — which supports the case for continued upside.
Momentum indicators further align with this outlook. The Momentum Oscillator remains above the 100 threshold, reflecting persistent bullish pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding above the 50 neutral line, indicating positive underlying market bias.
However, the emergence of a Shooting Star candlestick signals potential exhaustion in the current rally and raises the likelihood of a short-term corrective move.
Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
0.65362: The initial resistance level is set at 0.65362, reflecting the daily high marked May 26.
0.66366 The second price target is set at 0.66366, representing the weekly resistance, R3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
0.68487 The third price objective is observed at 0.68487, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the high point, 0.65362, to the low point, 0.64216.
0.69411: An additional upside target is projected at 0.69411.
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
0.64216: The initial support level is estimated at 0.64216, representing the weekly support, S1, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
0.63425: The second level is seen at 0.63425, corresponding to the low point from April 24.
0.62243: The third support level is identified at 0.62243, reflecting the 50% Fibonacci Retracement between the low point, 0.59124, and the high point, 0.65362.
0.61507: An additional downside target is 0.61507, mirroring the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement between the low point, 0.59124, and the high point, 0.65362.
Australia’s consumer inflation remained steady in April, with the annual CPI holding at 2.4% — slightly above expectations but still within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2–3% target band. Core inflation also edged up modestly, with the trimmed mean rising to 2.8% from 2.7% in March. Gains in health insurance and holiday travel costs offset a sharp 12% drop in fuel prices.
The Australian dollar was largely unchanged, and bond markets maintained their view that rate cuts are on the table, with a 65% chance of easing in July and full pricing for a cut by August.
The RBA, having already reduced rates to a two-year low last week, appears poised to ease further amid subdued wage growth, resilient employment, and fading inflation risks. Cooling rental and electricity costs suggest additional disinflationary forces are emerging.
With a busy economic calendar unfolding and key data releases from Australia, the U.S., and China on tap, traders should remain alert to shifts in sentiment that could affect AUDUSD’s current bullish trajectory. While technicals point to continued upside, the recent Shooting Star candlestick hints at a potential near-term pullback. On the macro front, stable inflation and growing rate cut expectations provide a supportive backdrop for the Aussie, though incoming global data will be pivotal in shaping the next move. As always, vigilance around key support and resistance levels will be essential in navigating the week ahead.