BTCUSD Testing Key Support as Downtrend Persists

BTCUSD has been in decline since peaking at $108,280.20 on December 17, with an Evening Star candlestick pattern signaling buyer weakness. Prices currently hold support at the 50-period EMA near $92,196.00, but a decisive break below could push targets under $90,000.00 or $80,000.00. Meanwhile, a Swiss proposal to mandate Bitcoin reserves for the national bank adds a significant long-term narrative, blending technical pressures with adoption potential.

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Since December 17, the price of BTCUSD has been steadily declining after peaking at $108,280.20. The decline was triggered by the formation of an Evening Star Japanese candlestick reversal pattern, which indicated that buyers were losing control of the market. However, prices have found support at the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), coinciding with a swing low of $92,196.00. If this key support level is decisively broken, BTCUSD’s downward momentum could increase, potentially driving the cryptocurrency below $90,000.00 and even under the $80,000.00 mark.

Momentum indicators clearly demonstrate the crypto’s negative bias. The Momentum Oscillator remains below 100, signaling downside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 50, indicating selling activity. Although these signals suggest that the cryptocurrency may remain under pressure in the near term, the 20-period EMA has not yet crossed below the 50-period EMA.

Should the buyers take market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:

95,817.20: The initial resistance level is identified at 95,817.20, which mirrors the weekly Pivot Point, PP, calculated using the standard methodology.

99,868.80: The second price target is seen at 99,868.80, representing the swing high marked on December 26.

108,280.20: The third price objective is projected at 108,280.20, which corresponds with the all-time high registered on December 17.

113,813.43: An additional price target is established at 113,813.43, representing the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the high point, 99,592.18, to the low point, 90,802.78

Should the sellers maintain market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:

92,196.00: The initial support level is identified at 92,196.00, corresponding to the swing low formed on December 20.

87,454.21: The second support level is estimated at 87.454.21, representing the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the low point, 92,196.00, to the high point, 99,868.80.

84,301.50: The third support level is identified at 84,301.50, reflecting the weekly support, S3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

79,781.41: An additional downside target is 79,781.41, mirroring the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the low point, 92,196.00, to the high point, 99,868.80.

A proposal to mandate the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to hold Bitcoin as part of its reserves has been initiated. Launched on December 31, the initiative requires 100,000 signatures by June 30, 2026, to trigger a public referendum. The proposed constitutional amendment would require the SNB to include Bitcoin alongside gold in its monetary reserves.

Led by the founder of Swiss Bitcoin think tank 2B4CH, and other advocates, the effort aligns with growing global interest in Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. Switzerland’s Bitcoin-friendly city of Lugano already hosts significant adoption, but challenges remain, including concerns over energy usage raised by SNB Chair Martin Schlegel.

Switzerland joins a list of nations exploring Bitcoin reserves, with similar discussions happening in the US, Brazil, and Poland. While the immediate impact may be limited, the proposal represents a significant development in Bitcoin’s journey toward mainstream adoption, which could have positive long-term effects on BTCUSD.

BTCUSD faces a challenging near-term outlook as technical indicators point to continued downside pressure, with critical support levels and bearish momentum shaping market dynamics. However, the proposal in Switzerland to mandate Bitcoin reserves for the Swiss National Bank introduces a promising fundamental backdrop that could influence long-term adoption and price stability. Traders should remain attentive to key technical levels and broader economic developments as BTCUSD navigates a mix of bearish sentiment and emerging institutional interest.