AUDUSD Daily Analysis: Corrective Pullback Nears Completion Before Bearish Wave (3) Extension 

Introduction 

AUD/USD continues to trade within a broader bearish structure after completing a five-wave impulsive decline. The current price action suggests the market is developing an ABC corrective pullback (Wave 2) before the primary downtrend resumes. 

The Elliott Wave structure, combined with Fibonacci resistance levels, indicates that the current recovery could be nearing completion, increasing the probability of another strong bearish leg. 

Wave (2) Corrective Pullback in Progress 

Following the completion of the initial five-wave decline (Wave 1), AUD/USD is now forming an ABC corrective structure. 

Price is currently approaching a confluence resistance area, where multiple Fibonacci retracement levels overlap with the projected completion of Wave (C). This zone is expected to act as a significant barrier for buyers. 

As long as price remains below this resistance region, the current rebound is considered corrective rather than the beginning of a new bullish trend. 

Wave (3) Expected to Resume the Downtrend 

Once the ABC correction is completed, AUD/USD is expected to begin Wave (3), which typically represents the strongest and most aggressive impulsive wave within the Elliott Wave sequence. 

The projected downside target aligns with: 

• Fibonacci 423.6 Extension zone.  

• Major support area highlighted on the chart.  

• The anticipated completion of the larger bearish impulse.  

This technical confluence increases the probability of a continuation of the prevailing downtrend. 

Awesome Oscillator Indicates Recovery Momentum 

The Awesome Oscillator has shifted into positive territory, reflecting improving short-term bullish momentum during the corrective rebound. 

However, this recovery remains corrective unless bearish momentum returns near the projected resistance zone. Traders should monitor the oscillator for signs of weakening bullish momentum or fresh bearish divergence before anticipating the next impulsive decline. 

Trading Outlook 

The preferred scenario is for AUD/USD to complete its Wave (2) ABC correction near the highlighted resistance area before resuming its broader bearish trend. 

Traders should watch for bearish reversal candlestick patterns such as Bearish Engulfing, Evening Star, or Shooting Star, together with weakening momentum on the Awesome Oscillator. 

A decisive breakout above the projected Wave (C) resistance would invalidate the current bearish wave count and suggest that a larger bullish correction is developing. 

Conclusion 

AUD/USD remains technically bearish despite the ongoing corrective rebound. The current recovery is viewed as Wave (2) within a larger bearish Elliott Wave structure. Unless buyers successfully break above the key Fibonacci resistance zone, the probability remains high for Wave (3) to resume the downtrend toward the major support area in the coming sessions.