China’s upcoming fiscal stimulus announcement on Saturday could significantly impact global markets, particularly the cryptocurrency sector, including Bitcoin. Analysts expect the injection of liquidity into the economy to benefit risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies, potentially increasing Bitcoin’s volatility. This move, alongside recent Chinese rate cuts and broader global economic stimulus efforts, could boost demand for Bitcoin. Additionally, the upcoming US presidential election is another key factor, with markets anticipating potential price swings for Bitcoin depending on the election outcome.
China’s Fiscal Stimulus Poised to Boost Bitcoin as Markets Brace for Impact
According to analysts, China’s upcoming fiscal stimulus announcement on Saturday could significantly impact the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin. The fresh measures, aimed at injecting liquidity into the economy, are expected to benefit risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Analysts suggest that the scale and aggressiveness of these measures could surprise markets, leading to increased Bitcoin market volatility. Coupled with recent economic stimulus efforts, such as rate cuts in China, the potential for further global liquidity boosts could drive demand for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the US presidential election, with betting odds favoring Donald Trump, is also seen as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin price movements.
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Breaks Key Resistance, Eyeing New Highs with Bullish Momentum
Since Monday, October 14, Bitcoin has initiated a rally, surpassing the key resistance level of 64,375.70, signaling the start of a potential uptrend. The move was triggered by the formation of a “non-failure swing” pattern, where the trough at 58,790.82 dipped below the prior low, followed by a break above the 64,375.70 peak. This technical reversal pattern suggests further upside potential.
The rally is supported by increased demand, and several bullish technical indicators reinforce this positive momentum. Bitcoin is trading above both the 20 and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), while the Momentum oscillator and Relative Strength Index (RSI) show readings above their key baselines of 100 and 50, respectively, further confirming the bullish outlook.
Should favorable market conditions persist, Bitcoin’s next potential price targets are projected at $66,382.92, $67,797.44, and $73,334.24.
Cryptocurrency Takes Center Stage in US Presidential Campaign
As the US presidential election approaches, Bitcoin options are showing increased expectations of price swings and a rise in bullish bets for the period after the election. Analysts are seeing higher “implied volatility,” which means traders are anticipating bigger price movements, especially for options expiring after November 5.
Rick Maeda from Presto Research pointed out that more traders are betting on long-term price gains with call options that expire at the end of the year. This trend seems to be connected to the growing odds of a certain candidate winning, with traders positioning themselves based on the potential election outcome.
While the options market looks optimistic, futures traders are more cautious due to uncertainties around the election and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Bitcoin futures have remained steady, and traders aren’t taking extreme positions.
Additionally, analysts have noticed an “election premium” on Bitcoin options set to expire around key dates, with an estimated 8% increase in expected price movements before the election. This premium reflects the market’s belief that the election results could lead to significant price changes for Bitcoin.
Australia’s First Spot Ether ETF Set to Launch, Expanding Crypto Investment Options
Australia’s first spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) will launch on Tuesday, October 15, following the successful debut of a spot Bitcoin ETF by Monochrome in August. The Monochrome Ethereum ETF (IETH) will allow investors to buy in and cash out using ether or cash, similar to spot crypto ETFs in Hong Kong. While US spot crypto ETFs dominate in size, holding billions in assets, other countries, including Australia, Hong Kong, and potentially South Korea, are gradually introducing their own spot crypto ETFs, though on a smaller scale.
Mt. Gox Delays $2.8 Billion Bitcoin Repayments to 2025, Easing Market Pressure
Mt. Gox, the defunct cryptocurrency exchange that collapsed in 2014 due to a hack, has postponed its repayment deadline to creditors by one year, moving it to October 31, 2025. Despite beginning the distribution of nearly $9 billion in recovered assets this July, the trustee managing Mt. Gox’s assets still holds approximately 44,900 bitcoins worth $2.8 billion. The delay is partly because many creditors have not completed the necessary procedures to receive their repayments. Analysts suggest that this postponement may alleviate immediate concerns about increased selling pressure on Bitcoin prices, as it reduces the near-term risk of a large influx of bitcoins entering the market. However, there may still be potential for market volatility once these funds start moving again.
Conclusion
In conclusion, several key factors are shaping the current and future landscape of the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin. China’s fiscal stimulus and its potential to boost liquidity in risk-on assets, such as Bitcoin, coupled with the upcoming US presidential election, are likely to influence market volatility in the near term. Technical indicators support Bitcoin’s recent upward momentum, suggesting further potential gains if market conditions remain favorable. Meanwhile, the launch of Australia’s first spot, Ether ETF, and the delayed Mt. Gox repayments are also contributing to the evolving dynamics of the crypto space. Investors should remain mindful of these developments as they navigate this period of heightened market activity and uncertainty.