This week brings several high-impact economic events, including the UK’s Claimant Count Change and CPI, Canada’s and New Zealand’s CPI reports, and Australia’s Employment Change. These will offer key insights into inflation and labor market conditions.
The European Central Bank’s rate decision, US retail sales, and unemployment claims will also influence global markets. Major corporate earnings reports from Bank of America, Citigroup, Netflix, and others will add further market direction.
High Impact Economic Events
Tuesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)
Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)
Wednesday 12:45 am (GMT+3) – New Zealand: CPI q/q (NZD)
Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)
Thursday 03:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)
Thursday 15:15 (GMT+3) – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: Retail Sales (GBP)
Tuesday, October 15
09:00 am – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)
The Claimant Count Change indicates how many individuals have started claiming unemployment benefits in a specific month.
A rise in the claimant count signifies a labor market experiencing a downturn and might negatively impact the GDP.
In August 2024, the number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits in the UK rose by 23,700, reaching a total of 1.792 million. This increase follows a revised rise of 102,300 in the previous month and falls significantly short of market expectations, which had projected a growth of 95,500.
Analysts anticipate a reading of 20.2K unemployment claims in September.
15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time. It covers eight major categories: food, shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, recreation and education, and alcohol and tobacco.
On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.2%, led by decreases in prices for air transportation, gasoline, clothing, and travel tours, following a 0.4% rise in July.
Analysts predict a -0.2% reading.
Wednesday, October 16
12:45 am – New Zealand: CPI q/q (NZD)
The consumer price index (CPI) measures the rate of price change of goods and services purchased by New Zealand households.
In the June 2024 quarter, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in New Zealand rose by 0.4%, or 0.6% when seasonally adjusted.
Economists expect growth of 0.7%.
09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)
The most common method for assessing inflation is the annual inflation rate, which looks at price changes over a 12-month period by comparing the current month’s prices with those from the same month the previous year. CPIH is the most comprehensive inflation measure, including the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) plus owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax.
In August 2024, CPIH rose by 3.1% year-on-year, unchanged from July, with a 0.4% monthly increase. CPI also remained steady at 2.2% annually, with a 0.3% monthly rise. Airfares drove the biggest upward change, while motor fuels and hospitality contributed downward pressure. Core CPIH rose by 4.3% annually, and core CPI increased by 3.6%, with goods prices falling and services costs rising.
Economists anticipate an increase of 1.9%.
Thursday, October 17
03:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)
The Australia Employment Change tracks the monthly variation in the number of officially employed individuals in the country. An increase in employment indicates a stronger labor market and can positively influence the value of the Australian dollar.
In August 2024, Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, with the participation rate steady at 67.0%. Employment increased to 14.44 million, with the employment-to-population ratio at 64.2%.
Economists project an increase of 25.2K.
15:15 – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)
The ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced after the European Central Bank meetings, during which the eurozone’s monetary policy is discussed. The interest rate decisions are made depending on the inflationary outlook and economic growth.
Cut in deposit rates may have a negative effect on EUR quotes.
In the previous meeting, the Governing Council decided to lower the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 3.50%. Additionally, the spread between the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility rate will be set at 15 basis points, while the spread for the marginal lending facility remains unchanged at 25 basis points. As a result, the interest rates on the main refinancing operations will decrease to 3.65% and on the marginal lending facility to 3.90%.
Economists expect a decrease to 3.40%.
15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)
It reflects the change in US retail sales from one month to the next. This indicator is used to assess inflation, and an increase in retail sales can positively influence the value of the US dollar.
In August 2024, US retail and food services sales were $710.8 billion, up 0.1% from July and 2.1% from August 2023.
Analysts project an increase of 0.3%.
15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.
For the week ending September 28, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased by 6,000 to 225,000.
Analysts expect 241K initial unemployment claims.
Friday, October 18
09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales (GBP)
It shows the changes in the value of retail goods sold in the UK for the given month compared to the previous month. The calculation uses season-adjusted data from British retailers.
The indicator is used in forecasting, budgeting, and developing UK financial and economic policy. Retail sales growth can positively affect British pound quotes.
Retail sales volumes increased by 1.0% in August 2024, following a revised 0.7% rise in July. Supermarkets and clothing retailers benefited from warmer weather and end-of-season sales. Over the three months to August 2024, sales volumes grew by 1.2% compared to the previous three months.
Economists see a decrease of -0.3% for September retail sales.
Company Earnings (October 14 – 18)
Tuesday, October 15: BAC (Bank of America Corp)
Tuesday, October 15, C (Citigroup Inc)
Tuesday, October 15, JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)
Wednesday, October 16: MS (Morgan Stanley)
Thursday, October 17: BX (Blackstone Inc)
Thursday, October 17: NFLX (Netflix Inc)
Friday, October 18: AXP(American Express Coo)
Conclusion
In conclusion, this week’s economic events and corporate earnings reports will provide significant insights into global market trends. Key economic indicators, such as inflation data, employment changes, and central bank decisions, will shape expectations for growth and monetary policy across multiple regions. Additionally, earnings reports from major corporations like Bank of America, Citigroup, Netflix, and others will further guide investor sentiment and market movements.