A series of high-impact economic events this week could inject fresh volatility into the markets, particularly from the U.S., New Zealand, Australia, Switzerland, and the UK. With central bank decisions, labor market data, and GDP releases on the docket, traders are bracing for directional cues across multiple asset classes. Meanwhile, EURJPY has drawn attention for its strong technical recovery, supported by bullish momentum and a key trend reversal pattern. Broader fundamentals remain in focus, as warnings from the ECB and fresh trade data from Japan underscore ongoing risks tied to global tariffs and slowing demand.
Wednesday 21:00 (GMT+3) – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)
Thursday 01:45 am (GMT+3) – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)
Thursday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)
Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)
Thursday 14:00 (GMT+3) – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Chart Analysis
Since bottoming at 154.783—the lowest level recorded in 2025—EURJPY has reversed course, recovering over 8% from trough to peak. The initial turning point was marked by a classic non-failure swing pattern: price action breached the prior low but subsequently broke above the preceding peak at 161.180, effectively invalidating the downtrend and signaling the early stages of a bullish phase.
This trend reversal was further validated by the formation of a “Golden Cross,” as the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed above the 50-period EMA, a widely recognized signal of a medium-term directional shift. Technical indicators continue to support the bullish narrative—momentum remains above the 100 threshold, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the 50 level, both suggesting sustained buying interest and upward pressure.
Key Resistance Levels
If buyers maintain control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
167.604: The first level of resistance is identified at 167.604, which aligns with the daily high marked on June 17.
169.419: The second price target is established at 169.419, representing the weekly resistance, R3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
171.886: The third price target is established at 171.886, representing the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 165.202 to 161.071.
178.570: An additional price objective is estimated at 178.570, mirroring the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 165.202 to 161.071.
Key Support Levels
If sellers take control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
165.202: The initial support level is seen at 165.202, representing the swing high from May 13.
162.870: The second support level is positioned at 162.870, aligning with the weekly support, S3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
161.071: The third downside target is noted at 161.071, corresponding to the low point marked on May 23.
158.206: An additional downside target is observed at 158.206, reflecting the daily low established on April 7.
Fundamentals
The European Central Bank (ECB) has warned that escalating U.S. tariffs could slow Eurozone growth and suppress inflation for years. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasized that while inflation may temporarily dip to 1.4% by early 2026, strong wage growth and tight labor markets should stabilize price pressures. Despite a stronger euro and falling oil prices, the ECB sees inflation risks as balanced and has paused further rate cuts. De Guindos downplayed concerns over the euro’s appreciation and reaffirmed the U.S. dollar’s dominance in global markets.
On the other hand, Japan’s exports fell 1.7% in May, driven by a nearly 25% drop in auto shipments to the U.S. amid higher tariffs imposed by President Trump. Imports also declined 7.7%, pointing to weakening domestic demand. The trade deficit reached ¥637.6 billion ($4.4 billion). Despite talks at the G7 summit, Japan and the U.S. failed to reach a deal on tariffs. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba highlighted Japan’s role as a key U.S. ally and stressed the economic contribution of Japanese automakers operating in North America.
Conclusion
As markets navigate a week packed with high-impact data and central bank decisions, traders should remain vigilant amid shifting macroeconomic dynamics. Technical strength in EURJPY offers a bullish backdrop, but broader risks—from unresolved trade tensions to slowing global demand—continue to weigh on sentiment. With monetary policy paths and economic indicators diverging across regions, price action is likely to remain data-dependent and reactive to geopolitical developments.
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