Markets head into Friday on edge, with two high-impact employment reports—Canada’s Employment Change and the US Non-Farm Payrolls—scheduled for release at 15:30 (GMT+3). These data points come at a critical juncture, as investor sentiment remains fragile following US President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement that triggered sharp volatility across currency markets.
The Euro has extended its gains against the US Dollar amid a combination of technical strength and macro-driven tailwinds, while the greenback continues to suffer under the weight of stagflation fears, weaker economic data, and growing concerns over US trade policy. Against this backdrop, the EURUSD pair remains in a well-established uptrend, but traders will be watching closely for any surprises in Friday’s data that could shift the current momentum.
The EURUSD pair has sustained a well-defined uptrend since establishing a low at 1.01768 on January 13. This upward trajectory has been marked by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows, indicative of persistent bullish momentum.
The initial technical reversal was signaled by a non-failure swing, where the trough at 1.01768 undercut the previous low, followed by a decisive break above the prior peak at 1.04359. This confirmed the shift in market structure and set the stage for continued price appreciation.
Subsequent bullish confirmation came from a “Golden Cross” formation, as the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed above the 50-period EMA. This double crossover reinforced the bullish sentiment, reflecting strengthening buying interest.
Momentum indicators are supportive of the prevailing trend. The Momentum Oscillator remains firmly above the 100 level, signaling sustained upside bias, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to register values above the 50 threshold, further affirming positive momentum.
However, emerging signs of negative divergence between price action and the Momentum Oscillator merit close monitoring. While the broader trend remains intact, this divergence suggests the potential for a near-term corrective pullback.
Key Resistance Levels
Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
1.11446: The initial resistance level is set at 1.11446, reflecting the highest price recorded in 2025.
1.12130: The second price target is set at 1.12130.
1.13143: The third price objective is observed at 1.13143, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the high point, 1.09538 to the low point, 1.07310.
1.16748: An additional upside target is projected at 1.16748, mirroring the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the high point, 1.09538 to the low point, 1.07310.
Key Support Levels
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
1.09538: The initial support level is seen at 1.09538, corresponding to the peak marked March 18.
1.08068: The second support level is estimated at 1.08068, representing the weekly Pivot Point, PP, estimated using the standard methodology.
1.07310: The third support level is identified at 1.07310, reflecting the trough marked March 27.
1.05465: An additional downside target is 1.05465, mirroring the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement drawn from, 1.01768 to 1.11446.
Fundamentals
The Euro rallied on Thursday against both the US Dollar and Pound Sterling following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping global tariffs, including a 20% levy on EU goods. Despite rising expectations of an ECB rate cut and trade tensions, the Euro found support as the US Dollar weakened sharply, driven by market fears of a potential US recession. The negative correlation between the Euro and the Dollar amplified the single currency’s gains.
On the other hand, the US dollar fell sharply on Thursday, hitting six-month lows against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc, as investors reacted to President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on all US imports. Fears of a global economic slowdown and rising inflation spurred a flight to safe-haven assets, while the dollar—once a crowded trade—was broadly sold off. Weaker US economic data and concerns over stagflation added to pressure on the greenback. Markets now turn to Friday’s jobs report and Fed Chair Powell’s speech for guidance, amid rising speculation of a crisis of confidence in the dollar.
Conclusion
With markets already rattled by the fallout from President Trump’s sweeping tariff measures, Friday’s employment data from both the US and Canada could prove pivotal in shaping short-term sentiment. While the EURUSD pair remains technically bullish and supported by broader macro dynamics, the potential for volatility remains elevated. Traders should remain vigilant as incoming labor market data and policy signals from Fed Chair Powell may either reinforce the current trend or trigger a decisive shift in direction.
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