Tariffs, Tensions, and Tumbles: Markets Stumble Amid Mixed Data and Trade Jitters

The first week of April delivered a mixed batch of economic data and corporate earnings amid growing signs of global economic divergence. China’s manufacturing PMI activity expanded at its fastest pace in one year in March, while Germany’s inflation remained modest. The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady, and US data painted a conflicting picture—showing job growth but weaker manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, crude oil and major stock indices fell sharply, reflecting investor caution. On the corporate front, RH, Exxon Mobil, and Acuity Brands posted earnings with varying market reactions. Notably, all three saw sharp share price declines despite mostly positive or stable results.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Monday, March 31

04:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in March, the fastest pace in a year, signaling a modest recovery helped by stimulus. Non-manufacturing PMI also improved to 50.8, though employment weakened. Rising US tariffs pose a risk to exports, prompting Beijing to boost fiscal support to meet its 5% growth target.

The USDCNH exchange rate fell slightly by 0.05% from the previous day’s closing value.

All Day – Germany: Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)

Germany’s inflation rate is expected to be 2.2% in March 2025, with consumer prices rising 0.3% from February. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is estimated at 2.5%.

The EURUSD decreased by 0.09% compared to the previous day.

Tuesday, April 1

06:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

The RBA kept the cash rate steady at 4.10% in April 2025, noting that underlying inflation is easing, but uncertainties remain. The Board remains cautious and data-dependent as it prioritizes sustainably returning inflation to target.

The AUDUSD ticked higher by 0.48%.

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

US manufacturing activity contracted in March, with the PMI falling to 49.0 from 50.3 in February. Weaker demand and output drove the decline, while input prices surged. Employment and new orders also dropped, signaling ongoing economic headwinds.

The EURUSD fell by 0.23%.

17:00 – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

US job openings held steady at 7.6 million in February, while hires and separations were unchanged at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Quits and layoffs also showed little movement, signaling a stable but cooling labor market.

The USDJPY currency pair decreased by 0.24% compared to the previous day.

Wednesday, April 2

15:15 – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

US private sector jobs rose by 155,000 in March, and annual pay increased by 4.6%, according to ADP. The data suggests solid employment growth despite economic uncertainty.

The EURUSD exchange rate increased by 0.54% compared to the previous session’s closing price.

Thursday, April 3

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

Switzerland’s consumer price index was unchanged in March 2025 from the previous month, holding at 107.5 points. Annual inflation stood at 0.3%.

The USDCHF exchange rate dropped by 2.6% compared to the previous day.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 219,000 for the week ending March 29. The four-week average declined slightly to 223,000. Insured unemployment rose to 1.9 million—the highest since November 2021—pushing the insured jobless rate up to 1.3%.

The EURUSD rose by 1.82%.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

US services activity expanded for a ninth straight month in March, with the Services PMI at 50.8, down from 53.5 in February. Business activity rose, but new orders and employment declined, with employment falling into contraction.

The USDJPY declined by 2.17% compared to the previous daily session.

Friday, April 4

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Canada lost 33,000 jobs in March, pushing the unemployment rate up to 6.7%. Employment fell in retail, recreation, Ontario, and Alberta, while wages rose 3.6% year-over-year.

The USDCAD increased by 0.9% from the previous day.

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

US nonfarm payrolls rose by 228,000 in March, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Job gains were led by health care, social assistance, and transportation, with little change in broader labor force metrics.

The EURUSD exchange rate decreased by 0.85% compared to the closing price from the previous day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices decreased by 9.71% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was down 8.91% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 1.51% weekly decrease
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD decreased by 13.31% compared to last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 decreased by 8.88%
2. DJIA was down by 7.72%
3. NASDAQ 100 declined by 9.52%

Top Gainers

1. bioAffinity Technologies, Inc. (BIAF) 160.94%
2. Local Bounti Corporation (LOCL) 135.73%
3. Alaunos Therapeutics, Inc. (TCRT) 102.06%

Top Losers

1. Jayud Global Logistics Limited (JYD) -95.02%
2. Golden Heaven Group Holdings Ltd. (GDHG) -91.14%
3. Brag House Holdings, Inc. (TBH) -89.21%

Company Earnings (March 31 – April 4)

Wednesday, April 2: RH (RH)

Thursday, April 3: XOM (Exxon Mobil Corp)

Thursday, April 3: AYI (Acuity Inc.)

RH delivered a strong Q4 with revenue up 18% and adjusted operating income rising 57%. Brand demand jumped 21%, and the company expects 10–13% revenue growth in FY2025 with a 14–15% operating margin. RH plans to open 11 new galleries and monetize up to $800 million in real estate and inventory to boost cash flow. Challenges include a weak housing market, inflation, tariffs, and $2.2 billion in debt from stock buybacks. Product launches are delayed, and international expansion may pressure margins.

RH shares dropped by 38.35% compared to the previous week.

Exxon Mobil signaled that higher oil and gas prices, along with stronger refining margins, are expected to boost Q1 earnings by about $900 million compared to Q4. Analysts forecast an adjusted EPS of $1.70, up slightly from $1.67 in the prior quarter. Results will be released on May 2.

XOM shares fell by 11.37% compared to the previous week.

Acuity Brands reported Q2 2025 earnings on April 3, with an EPS of $3.73, beating estimates by $0.06. Revenue rose 11.1% year-over-year to $1.01 billion, slightly below the $1.03 billion forecast.

AYI shares fell by 10.84% from the previous week.

Conclusion

The first week of April reflected a global economy at a crossroads—showing early signs of recovery in some regions while grappling with persistent uncertainty elsewhere. Markets were rattled by the announcement of sweeping new US tariffs from former President Trump, sparking concerns over trade tensions just as global manufacturing shows tentative improvement. Despite solid job growth in the US and earnings beats from companies like RH, Exxon Mobil, and Acuity Brands, sharp declines in stock prices, falling commodities, and widespread risk aversion suggest that investor confidence remains fragile. As markets digest economic data and geopolitical developments, volatility is likely to persist.