EURUSD Poised for Action: Employment Data Holds the Key 

The EURUSD pair remains in focus ahead of today’s high-impact economic events, including Canada’s Employment Change and the US Non-Farm Employment Change, both scheduled for 15:30 (GMT+2). These key data releases have the potential to drive volatility across the FX markets, particularly for USD-denominated pairs.

With EURUSD maintaining its upward trajectory supported by technical and fundamental factors, traders will closely watch incoming data for clues on potential shifts in momentum.

Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD) 

Since posting a high of 1.01768 on January 13, EURUSD has exhibited a well-defined upward trajectory, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows — a hallmark of sustained bullish momentum. The initial shift in trend was signaled by the emergence of a Morning Star candlestick reversal pattern, which marked the conclusion of the prior downtrend and the onset of a new bullish phase.

The development of a failure swing pattern, a classic technical reversal signal, further reinforced this evolving bullish bias. Notably, the trough at 1.02089 held above the preceding low, while subsequent price action breached the 1.05321 peak, solidifying the upward trend structure.

The formation of a “Golden Cross,” with the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossing above the 50-period EMA, added further technical confirmation and bolstered positive sentiment.

Momentum indicators continue to align with this constructive outlook. The Momentum Oscillator remains firmly above the key 100 level, indicating persistent upside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the 50 threshold, signaling continued buying interest.

Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:

1.08523: The initial resistance level is established at 1.08523, which mirrors the daily high from March 6.

1.09681: The second price target is set at 1.09681.

1.10007: The third price objective is observed at 1.10007, corresponding to a weekly peak.

1.10550: An additional upside target is projected at 1.10550, mirroring the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 1.05321 to 1.02089.

Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:

1.05940: The initial support level is seen at 1.05940, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement drawn from the low point, 1.01768, to the high point, 1.08523.

1.05275: The second support level is estimated at 1.05275, representing the peak from February 24.

1.04203: The third support level is identified at 1.04203, reflecting the weekly Pivot Point, PP, estimated using the standard methodology.

1.03592: An additional downside target is 1.03592, mirroring the trough marked February 28.

The ECB lowered its key interest rates for the sixth time since June, cutting the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, effective 12 March 2025.

While inflation cooled to 2.4% in February, services inflation remains elevated at 3.7%, keeping price pressures sticky. Economic growth projections were revised down to 0.9% for 2025, with further risks from geopolitical tensions, including potential US-EU trade tariffs and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Despite rate cuts, lending growth remains weak, and some analysts suggest this cut could be the last of the cycle as inflation risks persist. Policymakers continue to balance easing financial conditions with concerns over sluggish growth and rising fiscal pressures across the eurozone.

In conclusion, EURUSD remains at a pivotal point, with its bullish momentum supported by technical patterns and improving sentiment following the ECB’s rate adjustments. However, the outlook could shift quickly depending on the outcome of today’s key employment data from Canada and the US. Traders should remain vigilant, as these high-impact releases, combined with ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, could significantly influence near-term price action and broader market direction.