Global Markets in Flux: Economic Shifts and Corporate Challenges Define the Week

This week revealed mixed global economic signals. Central banks maintained cautious policies, with the Fed cutting rates to support growth while the BoE and BoJ held steady amid persistent inflation. European PMI showed ongoing contraction, and New Zealand’s GDP declined further.
Markets reflected risk aversion, with declines in commodities, major indices, and mixed corporate earnings. General Mills beat profit expectations but saw shares fall, while Nike and FedEx struggled with revenue declines, focusing on strategic shifts.
Uncertainty remains high as economies and markets adjust heading into 2025.

Monday, December 16
10:15 am – France: Flash PMI (EUR)
French business activity contracted for the fourth month, with the Composite PMI rising slightly to 46.7 but staying in contraction. Manufacturing hit a 55-month low (PMI 41.9), while services improved marginally (PMI 48.2). Weak demand, declining orders, and political instability drove sharp job cuts, the steepest since 2020. Input costs eased, but competitive pressures limited price increases. Political uncertainty and struggling key sectors like construction and automotive weighed heavily, with no clear recovery in sight.
The EURUSD exchange increased by 0.12% from the previous trading session.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash PMI (EUR)
Germany’s private sector contracted for the sixth month in December, with the Composite PMI rising slightly to 47.8, remaining below the 50.0 growth threshold. Services rebounded to 51.0, showing marginal growth, while manufacturing slumped further, with its PMI hitting a 3-month low of 42.5.
Demand weakened sharply, with steep drops in new orders and continued job losses, particularly in manufacturing. Input costs rose at the fastest pace since April, driven by wage increases, pushing service sector prices higher.
Business confidence improved slightly but stayed below average due to political uncertainty and struggles in manufacturing and the automotive sector. Services showed signs of resilience, supported by rising real wages, offering a glimmer of hope for stabilization in 2024.
The EURJPY exchange rate advanced 0.4%.

11:30 am – UK: Flash PMI (GBP)
UK private sector output stagnated in December (PMI 50.5). Services showed modest growth (51.4), while manufacturing slumped to an 11-month low (45.7). Employment fell at the fastest rate in nearly four years, driven by rising costs and weak demand. Inflation pressures rose, and business confidence hit a two-year low, pointing to potential challenges in 2025.
The GBPUSD exchange rate increased by 0.57% compared to the previous day’s close.

16:45 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)
US private sector growth surged in December, with the Composite PMI reaching a 33-month high of 56.6, driven by robust services expansion (PMI 58.5). Manufacturing, however, continued to decline, with output hitting a 55-month low (PMI 46.0) due to weak demand and rising costs.
Employment rose for the first time in five months, supported by optimism about the incoming administration. Inflationary pressures eased overall despite a sharp rise in manufacturing input costs. Businesses expect continued growth in 2025, though manufacturing faces headwinds from tariffs and material price hikes.
The USDJPY gained 0.34%.

09:00 am – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)
The UK Claimant Count for November 2024 remained largely stable, increasing by only 300 to a total of 1.769 million, reflecting no significant monthly change. This measure tracks those receiving benefits primarily due to unemployment and is a key labor market indicator.
The GBPUSD was up 0.21% compared to the previous day’s close.

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)
The CPI rose 1.9% year-over-year in November, down from 2.0% in October. Food prices increased 2.6%, while shelter costs rose 4.6%, driven by higher rent (+7.7%) and slowing mortgage interest costs (+13.2%). Monthly CPI was flat, with Black Friday discounts lowering household and clothing prices. Gasoline prices were unchanged month-over-month but fell 0.5% annually. Atlantic provinces saw faster price growth due to fuel oil costs.
The USDCAD exchange rate ticked higher by 0.47% from the previous day.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)
US retail and food services sales for November 2024 were $724.6 billion, up 0.7% from October and 3.8% from November 2023. Retail trade sales rose 0.9% monthly and 4.1% annually. Key growth areas included motor vehicle and parts dealers (+6.5%) and nonstore retailers (+9.8%) compared to last year. Sales for September through November 2024 increased 2.9% year-over-year.
The EURUSD price decreased 0.19% compared to the previous day’s close.

21:00 – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)
The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25%-4.5%, aiming to support maximum employment and bring inflation to the 2% goal. Economic activity expanded solidly, though inflation remains elevated, and the labor market has eased slightly.
The Fed will continue reducing holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt while monitoring economic developments. The vote was nearly unanimous, with one dissent preferring no rate change. The Fed remains prepared to adjust policy as needed based on risks to employment and inflation objectives.
The US Dollar Index was up 1.23%.

23:45 – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)
GDP fell 1.0% in the September quarter, following a 1.1% decline in June. Key declines were seen in manufacturing, business services, and construction, while agriculture grew, driven by dairy exports. GDP per capita dropped 1.2%, and household consumption fell 0.3%, with lower spending on essentials partially offset by higher durable goods purchases.
The NZDUSD exchange rate was down 2.27% compared to the previous day’s close.

Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)
The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.25% by an 8-1 vote, citing moderate economic recovery and inflation of 2.0-2.5%. Growth is supported by improving employment and consumption, though housing investment remains weak. Inflation is expected to rise gradually toward the 2% target amid wage growth, despite uncertainties from global conditions and domestic price-setting behaviors. The Bank completed a policy review and will adjust measures as needed for sustainable price stability.
The USDJPY was up 1.67%.

14:00 – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)
The Bank of England held the Bank Rate at 4.75% (6–3 vote) as inflation rose to 2.6% in November, driven by core goods and food. Economic activity has weakened, and the labor market is balanced, though wage growth remains uncertain. The MPC will keep policy restrictive to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target sustainably.
The GBPUSD fell 0.58% compared to the previous day’s closing price.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Seasonally adjusted initial claims fell to 220,000, down 22,000 from the prior week, with a 4-week average of 225,500. Insured unemployment remained at 1.2%, with 1.874 million claims. Unadjusted claims dropped 18.7% to 251,527, while total continued claims rose to 1.96 million.
The EURUSD ticked slightly higher by 0.06%.

15:30 – Canada: Retail Sales m/m (CAD)
Retail sales increased 0.6% to $67.6 billion, led by a 2.0% rise in motor vehicle and parts dealers. Core retail sales rose 0.2%, while sales at gasoline stations (-0.5%) and food retailers (-0.7%) declined. Seven provinces saw gains, with Ontario and British Columbia leading. E-commerce grew 1.5%, making up 6.2% of total sales. Sales volumes were flat.
The USDCAD price declined 0.19%.

15:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
Personal income and disposable income rose 0.3%, while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.4%, driven by higher spending on goods (+0.7%) and services (+0.1%). The PCE price index and core PCE rose 0.1%. Real disposable income and PCE grew by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. The personal saving rate was 4.4%. Annually, PCE prices increased by 2.4%.
The EURUSD gained 0.69%.

• Crude Oil
  Crude oil prices decreased by 2.14% over the past week
• Brent Oil
  Brent decreased by 1.80% compared to the previous week
• Gold
  The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 0.95% weekly decline
• Silver
  XAGUSD decreased by 3.42% from the previous week

1. S&P 500 decreased by 1.95%
2. DJIA was down by 2.24%
3. NASDAQ 100 fell 2.17%, signaling a sharp downturn in tech-heavy stocks.

1. Nvni Group Limited (NVNI) 1,608.14%
2. Syntec Optics Holdings, Inc. (OPTX) 255.11%
3. Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) 207.01%

1. XCHG Limited (XCH) -89.54%
2. Fitell Corporation (FTEL) -79.74%
3. Alpha Modus Holdings, Inc (AMOD) -61.05%

1. Wednesday, December 18: GIS (General Mills, Inc.)
2. Thursday, December 19: NKE (NIKE, Inc.)
3. Thursday, December 19: FDX (FedEx Corporation)

General Mills (GIS) reported earnings of $1.40 per share, beating estimates by 14.75%, with revenues of $5.24 billion, up from $5.14 billion last year. The company has surpassed EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters.

GIS shares price decreased by 4.62% from the previous week.

Nike’s revenues fell 7% to $12.0bn, with declines in Nike Direct (-13%), wholesale (-3%), and Converse (-17%). Gross profit dropped to $5.38bn, and earnings per share decreased to $0.78 from $1.03. CEO Elliott Hill highlighted plans to refocus on sport and reposition the business. Q3 revenue is expected to decline in the low double digits, with gross margins falling 300–350 basis points due to restructuring and currency impacts.

NKE shares experienced a modest uptick of 0.4%.

FedEx (FDX) posted Q2 FY25 earnings of $4.05 per share, exceeding estimates, while revenues of $21.9 billion fell short, down 0.8% year-over-year. Weak Freight performance and industrial demand hurt results, partly offset by cost cuts. Operating income dropped 18% to $1.05 billion. The company repurchased $1 billion in shares and revised its FY25 guidance to flat revenues, lower EPS ($16.45–$17.45), and $5.2 billion in capital spending.

FDX shares decreased by 2.71% from the previous week.

In conclusion, last week highlighted the continued fragility of the global economy, marked by mixed data and cautious policy actions. Central banks navigated inflationary pressures and growth challenges, while corporate earnings underscored sector-specific headwinds and strategic pivots. Market volatility persisted, reflecting broader economic uncertainty as the transition to 2025 looms.