The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for December 23 – 27, 2024 

With the Christmas holidays this week, markets will navigate a lighter schedule but still feature several high-impact economic events and corporate earnings reports. Canada’s GDP figures will offer insights into the country’s economic momentum on Monday. Tuesday shifts focus to the US with the release of Core Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales, both key indicators of manufacturing activity and housing market health.
On Thursday, US labor market conditions will come into focus with the latest Unemployment Claims report, while Friday turns attention to Japan with the release of Tokyo’s Core CPI, a critical gauge of inflation trends. Despite the holiday season, these events could provide important signals for market direction as the year concludes.

Monday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (USD)
Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: New Home Sales (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 01:50 am (GMT+2) – Japan: Tokyo Core CPI y/y (JPY)

15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key measure of the economic output of a country or region. It represents the total value of goods and services produced minus intermediate consumption like raw materials or components. GDP can be calculated using methods such as the value-added approach, which looks at the contribution of each sector to the economy. When GDP grows, it indicates economic expansion, while a slowdown or negative GDP may signal a recession. It’s used as a benchmark for the overall health of an economy.
The GDP grew 0.3% in Q3, with household and government spending driving gains, while business investment, slower inventories, and falling exports weighed on growth. This growth rate is significant as it indicates the pace at which the economy is expanding. Per capita GDP dropped 0.4%.
Housing investment rose slightly, while business spending and exports declined. Wages grew 1.7%, lifting household savings to 7.1%. Corporate income fell 1.1%, led by manufacturing and retail declines, offset by oil, gas, and financial sector growth.

Analysts expect this week’s reading to rise slightly by 0.2%.

15:30 – USA: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (USD)
Core Durable Goods Orders show the change in the value of orders received by manufacturers of durable goods, excluding transportation items, in the given month compared to the previous one.
Growth in the report may have a positive effect on the US dollar quotes.
New orders for durable goods rose 0.2% in October to $286.6 billion, reversing two months of declines. Core durable goods, excluding transportation, edged up 0.1%, while orders excluding defense increased 0.4%. Transportation equipment led the gains, up 0.5% to $97.1 billion, following two months of decreases.
Analysts predict that the upcoming release will show growth, with a reading of 0.3%.
17:00 – USA: New Home Sales (USD)
The New Home Sales indicator represents sales of newly constructed single-family residences last month. It is reported in an annualized (month x 12) format.
Growth in the report may have a positive effect on the US dollar quotes
New single-family home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000, down 17.3% from September and 9.4% from October 2023. The median sales price was $437,300, with an average price of $545,800. The inventory of new homes reached 481,000, representing 9.5 months of supply at the current sales pace.
Analysts expect an improved reading of 666,000.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.
Seasonally adjusted initial claims fell to 220,000 for the week ending December 14, down 22,000. Insured unemployment remained steady at 1.2%, with 1.87 million claims. Unadjusted claims dropped 18.7% to 251,527, with the highest insured unemployment rates in New Jersey (2.5%) and California (2.3%).
Analysts forecast a reading of 218,000.

01:50 – Japan: Tokyo Core CPI y/y (JPY)
In Tokyo, the core inflation rate measures the change in consumer prices for a basket of goods and services, excluding fresh food. This indicator provides a clearer view of underlying inflation trends by removing the volatility associated with fresh food prices.
Tokyo’s core CPI rose 2.2% year-on-year in November 2024, the highest in three months and above market expectations of 2.1%. This data, often a precursor to national inflation trends, comes ahead of the Bank of Japan’s December policy meeting, where a rate hike is increasingly anticipated. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda cited yen weakness as a concern, with markets now pricing a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, up from 50% a week ago.
Economists project a 2.5% reading.

Tuesday, December 24: TKSHF (Takashimaya Co Ltd)
Wednesday, December 25: AGNMF (Agronomics Ltd)
Thursday, December 26: AGPPF (Anglo American Platinum Ltd)

This week’s lineup of high-impact economic events and earnings reports will provide valuable insights into key sectors and regions, shaping expectations for economic trends and market movements. With data releases spanning GDP, durable goods orders, new home sales, labor market conditions, and inflation, as well as earnings from prominent companies, these events will be closely monitored for signals on economic momentum and policy direction as the year concludes.