Global Markets Pause as Inflation Cools and Growth Shows Mixed Signals (November 17 – 21, 2025, Recap)

The past week featured several key economic reports from major economies, offering insights into global inflation, employment trends, and business activity. Data showed a general slowdown in inflation across Canada and the UK, moderate job growth in the US, and softer business momentum in Europe. Meanwhile, the US economy continued to expand at a solid pace, supported by strong services activity.

In commodities, crude oil and precious metals posted weekly declines, while major stock indexes, including the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, retreated amid cautious market sentiment. On the corporate front, Baidu, Nvidia, and Walmart released quarterly results, reflecting mixed earnings — with Baidu and Nvidia facing pressure despite beating forecasts, while Walmart posted steady growth.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Monday, November 17

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

Inflation slowed slightly in October, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.2% from a year earlier, down from 2.4% in September.

The main reason for this slowdown was cheaper gasoline, which dropped 9.4% year over year, compared with a 4.1% decline the previous month. Without gasoline, prices still rose 2.6%, the same as in September.

Grocery prices increased more slowly, helping ease overall inflation, while higher cell phone plan costs partly offset the decline.

Month over month, the CPI increased 0.2%, showing that prices are still rising, but at a more moderate pace.

The USDCAD pair increased by 0.20% on the day.

Wednesday, November 19

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

Inflation continued to ease in October 2025. The Consumer Prices Index including housing costs (CPIH) rose 3.8% over the past year, down from 4.1% in September.

The regular Consumer Prices Index (CPI) also slowed, increasing 3.6% year over year compared with 3.8% the month before.

On a monthly basis, both CPIH and CPI rose 0.4% in October, smaller increases than the 0.6% recorded in October 2024.

GBPUSD fell 0.74% from the previous day.

Thursday, November 20

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

In September, US employment rose slightly, with 119,000 jobs added. Overall job growth has been mostly flat since April, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.4%. Most new jobs came from health care, restaurants, and social services, while transportation, warehousing, and federal government jobs declined.

The EURUSD pair showed no change from the previous day.

Friday, November 21

09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Retail sales in the UK rose 1.1% in the three months to October 2025 compared with the previous three months, driven by strong clothing sales and gains in computer and telecom stores.

However, sales volumes dropped 1.1% in October, the first monthly decline since May. Supermarkets, clothing, and online retailers saw lower sales, which some attributed to shoppers postponing purchases ahead of Black Friday.

The GBPUSD pair edged 0.27% higher on the day.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash PMI (EUR)

Germany’s private sector slowed in November, with weaker growth in business activity and new orders, according to the flash HCOB PMI. The Composite PMI fell to 52.1 from 53.9 in October as both manufacturing and services lost momentum.

Employment declined modestly amid lower backlogs, and export orders dropped at the fastest pace since January. Price pressures eased, with slower output price inflation and lower factory gate prices, though service firms continued to face wage-driven cost increases.

Business confidence remained steady overall, with manufacturers turning more optimistic and service providers slightly less so.

The EURUSD fell 0.08% from the previous day.

11:30 am – UK: Flash PMI (GBP)

UK private sector growth slowed in November as service-sector activity weakened and new work fell for the first time since July, according to the flash S&P Global PMI. The Composite PMI dropped to 50.5 from 52.2 in October, signaling near-stagnant growth.

Manufacturers saw a modest rise in new orders, but service firms faced weaker demand ahead of the Autumn Budget. Employment declined at the fastest pace in four months, while firms faced higher wage and import costs.

Selling price inflation eased to its lowest in nearly five years as businesses cut prices to attract customers. Economists warned that growth has stalled, raising the chance of a rate cut in December.

GBPJPY fell 0.49% on the day.

16:45 – USA: ISM PMI (USD)

US business activity picked up in November, with the S&P Global Flash Composite PMI rising to 54.8 from 54.6, the highest in four months. Growth was led by services, while manufacturing expanded more slowly.

New business increased at the fastest pace this year, and confidence improved on hopes for policy support and reduced political uncertainty. However, rising costs linked to tariffs and wages pushed price pressures higher.

Manufacturers saw slower new orders and record-high inventories, hinting at softer output ahead. Overall, the data suggest GDP growth of about 2.5% in the fourth quarter.

The US dollar slipped 0.8% against the Japanese yen.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   Crude oil prices decreased by 3.29% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   Brent was down 2.77% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 0.51% weekly decrease
4. Silver
   XAGUSD decreased by 1.11% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 decreased by 1.94%
2. DJIA was down 1.89%
3. NASDAQ 100 decreased by 3.10%

Top Gainers

1. WeShop Holdings Limited (WSHP) 275.37%
2. Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OLMA) 175.83%
3. PACS Group, Inc. (PACS) 159.92%

Top Losers

1. Smart Digital Group Limited (SDM) -86.60%
2. Inspire Veterinary Partners, Inc. (IVP) -84.52%
3. OneConstruction Group Limited (ONEG) -79.57%

Company Earnings (November 17 – 21)

Tuesday, November 18: BIDU (Baidu, Inc.)

Wednesday, November 19: NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation)

Thursday, November 20: WMT (Walmart Inc.)

Baidu’s results for the third quarter of 2025 were mixed. The company earned $1.56 per share, beating expectations, but profits were down 34% from last year. Revenue came in at $4.38 billion — slightly better than forecasts but still 8% lower than a year ago.

Sales from its main Baidu Core business fell 7%, as online advertising dropped sharply. However, its cloud and artificial intelligence services grew strongly. The company’s video platform, iQIYI, also saw an 8% decline in revenue.

Baidu said it continues to invest heavily in AI, launching its new ERNIE 5.0 model and expanding its Apollo Go robotaxi service, which completed 3.1 million driverless rides in the quarter — more than triple last year’s number.

BIDU shares fell 4.35% from the previous week.

Nvidia, the leading maker of AI chips, reported strong third-quarter results that easily beat Wall Street expectations.

The company earned $1.30 per share, above forecasts of $1.26, while revenue surged 62% from a year earlier to $57 billion, topping analyst’s estimates. Nvidia expects even higher sales of around $65 billion next quarter, with CEO Jensen Huang saying demand for its new AI Blackwell platform is “off the charts.”

The results come as investors question whether the rapid growth in AI stocks can continue, with Nvidia remaining a key player at the center of the AI boom.

NVDA shares fell 5.94% over the past week.

Walmart reported quarterly earnings of $0.62 per share, slightly above expectations of $0.61 and higher than last year’s $0.58. Revenue rose to $179.5 billion, up from $169.6 billion a year ago, also beating forecasts.

The retailer has topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and continues to show steady growth, though its stock has slightly underperformed the broader market this year.

WMT shares rose 2.77% over the past week.

Conclusion

Overall, the week reflected a mixed but steady global economic picture. Inflation continued to cool in Canada and the UK, while the US economy showed resilience with solid business activity and moderate job gains. Europe, however, displayed signs of slowing momentum, particularly in manufacturing and services.

Market sentiment turned cautious, with major equity indexes retreating and commodities ending the week lower. Corporate earnings painted a diverse picture — Baidu and Nvidia delivered strong revenue beats but faced profit pressures, whereas Walmart maintained stable growth. Looking ahead, investors will remain focused on inflation trends, central bank policies, and the upcoming holiday spending season for clues on global economic direction.