Global Markets Under Pressure as Inflation Fears Persist Despite Strong Earnings (October 26 – 30, 2026, Recap)

Overview

Global financial markets experienced a busy week from October 26–30, 2026, driven by major central bank decisions, important economic data, and corporate earnings reports. Inflation concerns remained in focus as central banks assessed rising energy prices and economic growth. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected US economic activity and mixed corporate earnings influenced investor sentiment. Major stock indices ended the week lower, while oil and precious metals also recorded losses. This weekly review highlights the key economic developments, market movements, and company earnings that shaped financial markets.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Wednesday, October 28

02:30 am – Australia: CPI m/m (AUD)

Australia’s inflation rate rose to 4.3% in September 2026, up from 4.0% in August, showing that the cost of living continues to increase. Prices rose by 0.8% during September alone. The biggest annual price increases were in transport (8.7%), housing (5.2%), and education (4.7%). Meanwhile, clothing and footwear prices remained relatively stable, rising just 0.4% over the year. Underlying inflation, which removes unusually large price changes to show broader trends, also increased slightly to 3.6%. Overall, the figures suggest that inflationary pressures are growing, putting further strain on Australian household budgets, particularly for essential expenses.

AUD/USD gained 0.4% on the day.

03:00 am – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.75%, following a close 4–3 vote. Annual inflation eased to 3.7% in September from 4.1% in June but is expected to rise to 4.4% in December, mainly due to higher fuel prices. New Zealand’s economy is gradually recovering, supported by strong exports and tourism, although household spending remains weak. Rising energy costs and a weaker New Zealand dollar are adding to inflation pressures. The Bank indicated that interest rate increases may be needed to bring inflation back towards its 2% target.

NZD/USD fell 0.97% on the day.

15:45 – Canada: Official Cash Rate (CAD)

The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.5% on October 28, 2026, aiming to control rising inflation. Inflation has remained around 3% since April and is expected to reach 3.5% by year-end, mainly due to higher energy prices. Canada’s economy has performed better than expected, supported by consumer spending, business investment, and exports. However, US tariffs and global uncertainty could slow growth. The Bank forecasts economic growth of 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. Further interest rate increases may be needed if inflation remains elevated.

USD/CAD fell 0.40% on the day.

16:30 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

US oil inventories declined during the week ending October 23, 2026, as crude oil stocks fell by 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels, remaining 4% below the five-year average. Refineries processed 16.5 million barrels per day, operating at 92.8% capacity. Meanwhile, crude oil imports increased to 6.4 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels, while distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.5 million barrels. Overall petroleum inventories declined by 3 million barrels. US fuel demand remained relatively stable, with total consumption up 0.2% compared with a year earlier.

US Crude Oil increased by 1.73% on the day.

20:00 – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

The US Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, 2026. The decision maintains current borrowing costs as the Fed continues managing monetary conditions. The interest rate paid to banks on their reserve balances will remain at 3.90%, while the rate for direct borrowing from the Fed stays at 4.00%. The Fed will also continue managing financial market liquidity through short-term lending operations and purchases of US government securities when necessary. Additionally, it will reinvest proceeds from maturing securities to maintain sufficient funds in the banking system and support stable financial markets.

EUR/USD gained 0.25% on the day.

Thursday, October 29

14:30 – USA: Advance GDP q/q (USD)

The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026, up from 2.2% in the previous quarter, showing stronger economic activity. Growth was mainly driven by increased business investment, consumer spending, and government spending. However, declining exports and rising imports partly offset these gains. Consumer spending and private investment together grew by 4.9%, reflecting strong domestic demand. Meanwhile, inflation pressures eased, with the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, rising by 2.1%, down from 5.0% in the previous quarter. Overall, the figures suggest a strengthening US economy alongside cooling inflation.

USD/JPY edged down 0.08% on the day.

14:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

US personal income increased by 0.2% in September 2026, while consumer spending rose by 0.5%, showing that Americans continued spending despite modest income growth. Spending increased mainly on services, followed by goods. However, after adjusting for inflation, consumer spending barely increased, suggesting that higher prices accounted for most of the rise. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, rose 3.6% compared with a year earlier, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, reached 3.1%. Meanwhile, the personal savings rate stood at 3.8%. Overall, the figures highlight persistent inflation pressures and limited growth in consumers’ purchasing power.

EUR/USD ticked 0.22% higher on the day.

15:15 – Eurozone: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key interest rates unchanged on October 29, 2026, with the deposit rate remaining at 2.50%. Rising energy prices are increasing inflation risks while threatening to slow economic growth across the eurozone. Although underlying inflation has remained relatively stable and wage pressures are limited, prolonged high energy costs could push prices higher. Tighter financial conditions may also weaken economic activity. The ECB remains committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target over the medium term. Future interest rate decisions will depend on incoming economic data, with the Bank avoiding commitments to any specific rate path.

EUR/GBP edged down 0.17% on the day.

Friday, October 30

Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

The Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate unchanged at around 1.25%, following an 8–1 vote, maintaining its current monetary policy stance. However, the Bank unanimously decided to accelerate the sale of its exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings, which are investments linked to the stock market. Annual ETF sales will increase from approximately 330 billion yen to 860 billion yen, reflecting stronger stock market trading activity. The Bank began selling these assets in January 2026 and has managed the process smoothly without significantly disrupting markets. The decision signals a gradual reduction in the Bank’s stock market holdings while maintaining stable interest rates.

USD/JPY fell 0.13% on the day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil

1. Crude oil prices fell 0.49% over the past week

2. Brent Oil

1. Brent was down 3.39% compared to the previous week

3. Gold

1. Gold (XAU/USD) ended the week on Friday with a loss of 3.01%

4. Silver

1. XAG/USD fell by 8.87% last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 fell 0.71%

2. DJIA was down 0.89%

3. NASDAQ 100 declined by 2.12%

Top Gainers

1. Ultralife Corporation (ULBI) 157.33%

2. ChowChow Cloud International Holdings Limited (CHOW) 113.28%

3. Megan Holdings Limited (MGN) 106.00%

Top Losers

1. Acumen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ABOS) -89.39%

2. JIADE Limited (JDZG) -85.73%

3. Magic Empire Global Limited (MEGL) -78.61%

Company Earnings (October 26-30)

Tuesday, October 27: V (Visa Inc.)

Tuesday, October 27: KO (The Coca-Cola Company)

Wednesday, October 28: GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.)

Wednesday, October 28: MSFT (Microsoft Corporation)

Thursday, October 29: AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.)

Thursday, October 29: MA (Mastercard Incorporated)

Thursday, October 29: INTC (Intel Corporation)

Thursday, October 29: MRK (Merck & Co., Inc.)

Thursday, October 29: CAT (Caterpillar Inc.)

Friday, October 30: XOM (ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation)

Friday, October 30: CVX (Chevron Corporation)

Friday, October 30: BP (BP p.l.c.)

Visa reported strong financial results for fiscal 2026, with annual revenue rising 15% to a record $46 billion and earnings per share increasing 16%. Growth was supported by higher payment volumes, international transactions, and a 30% increase in value-added services revenue. Visa also expanded its stablecoin and digital-payment services. Looking ahead, the company expects continued revenue and earnings growth in 2027, supported by resilient consumer spending. However, higher costs, tax pressures, and global uncertainty could affect performance.

V shares rose 1.39% over the past week.

Coca-Cola reported strong third-quarter results, with sales volume rising 5%, organic revenue increasing 7%, and earnings per share growing 11%. The company raised its 2026 outlook, expecting at least 5% revenue growth and 11% earnings growth, supported by strong demand and improved financial performance. However, price-sensitive consumers and rising transportation costs remain challenges. Looking ahead, Coca-Cola expects slower revenue and earnings growth in 2027 due to its planned restructuring of African operations and unfavorable currency movements.

KO shares gained 1.48% over the past week.

Alphabet, Google’s parent company, reported strong third-quarter results, with revenue rising 25% to $127.6 billion, driven by rapid growth in Google Cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) services. Google Cloud revenue more than doubled, while the Gemini AI app reached 1 billion users. However, heavy investment in AI infrastructure pushed free cash flow into negative territory. Looking ahead, Alphabet expects continued AI-driven growth, although rising costs, pressure on profit margins, and slower advertising growth remain key challenges.

GOOGL shares fell 12.19% over the past week.

Microsoft reported strong fiscal first-quarter results, with revenue rising 19% to $92.3 billion and operating income increasing 21%. Growth was driven by cloud services and artificial intelligence (AI), with Azure revenue jumping 48% and Copilot usage expanding rapidly. However, heavy AI infrastructure investments are putting pressure on profit margins, while weaker PC demand has affected Windows sales. Looking ahead, Microsoft expects continued strong cloud growth, although rising costs and challenges in traditional businesses remain concerns.

MSFT shares ticked down 0.50% over the past week.

Amazon reported strong third-quarter results, with revenue rising 12% to $201.9 billion and operating income jumping 61% to $28.1 billion, reaching record profitability. Growth was driven by strong retail performance and Amazon Web Services (AWS), whose revenue surged 39.3% amid increasing demand for artificial intelligence (AI). However, heavy investment in AI infrastructure could pressure future profit margins. Looking ahead, Amazon expects continued growth in cloud services, online shopping, and advertising, supported by strong customer demand.

AMZN shares declined by 3.08% over the past week.

Mastercard reported strong third-quarter results, with revenue rising 14% and earnings per share increasing 21%, supported by resilient consumer spending and growing digital payments. International transaction volumes rose 11%, while services revenue increased 19%, driven by demand for cybersecurity and payment solutions. The company maintained its positive 2026 outlook, expecting continued revenue growth. However, slower growth in some international transactions and higher customer incentives could pressure fourth-quarter performance. Overall, Mastercard remains well positioned for continued growth.

MA shares gained 2.31% over the past week.

Intel reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, with revenue reaching $16.5 billion, supported by strong demand for data center processors and artificial intelligence (AI) technology. Data center revenue surged nearly 80%, but the PC market weakened due to memory shortages, rising prices, and tighter budgets. Intel expects lower revenue and profitability in the fourth quarter, partly due to its Israel factory shutdown. Looking ahead, heavy investment in advanced chip manufacturing could pressure cash flow in 2027 but support long-term growth.

INTC shares fell 24.38% over the past week.

Merck reported strong third-quarter results, with revenue rising 5% to $18.1 billion, supported by growing sales of key medicines, including KEYTRUDA, WINREVAIR, and WELIREG. The company raised its 2026 revenue and earnings forecasts and reported encouraging progress in developing new cancer treatments. However, competition from cheaper generic medicines could reduce revenue by more than $2 billion in 2027. Merck also expects higher research and development costs as it invests in new treatments and future growth.

MRK shares increased by 2.93% over the past week.

Caterpillar reported record third-quarter results, with revenue rising 17% to $20.7 billion and adjusted earnings per share jumping 45%. Strong demand for construction equipment, energy systems, and power solutions for AI data centers supported growth. The company’s order backlog reached a record $78 billion, indicating strong future demand. However, tariffs, rising costs, and production capacity limits could pressure profitability. Looking ahead, Caterpillar maintained its positive 2026 outlook, although fourth-quarter sales growth is expected to slow.

CAT shares fell 9.35% over the past week.

ExxonMobil reported strong third-quarter results, with earnings reaching $15.4 billion and operating cash flow totaling $25.7 billion. Performance was supported by strong refining operations and increased oil production in the Permian Basin and Guyana. The company raised its dividend by 4% and returned $9.4 billion to shareholders. However, ongoing Middle East disruptions continue to affect energy supplies and exports. Looking ahead, ExxonMobil expects further production growth, supported by new oil, natural gas, and refining projects worldwide.

XOM shares gained 2.21% over the past week.

Chevron reported strong third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $10.4 billion and operating cash flow of $16.6 billion. The company reduced its debt by more than $3 billion and maintained strong oil production. Chevron also plans to double its production in Venezuela by 2031 while expanding its use of artificial intelligence to improve efficiency. However, lower oil prices affected earnings, and restructuring costs could weigh on future results. Overall, Chevron remains focused on production growth, cost savings, and financial stability.

CVX shares increased by 0.99% over the past week.

BP reported strong third-quarter results, with underlying profit rising 48% to $8.5 billion and operating cash flow reaching $14.8 billion. Improved refining performance, stronger profit margins, and natural gas trading supported earnings. The company also reduced its net debt by $8.4 billion to $13.9 billion. However, BP recorded $4 billion in losses from reduced asset valuations, mainly in renewable energy investments. Looking ahead, weaker seasonal demand and operational challenges could pressure fourth-quarter profitability.

BP shares fell 1.81% over the past week.

Conclusion

Overall, the week highlighted ongoing uncertainty in global financial markets, as persistent inflation, rising energy costs, and central bank decisions continued to influence investor sentiment. Despite strong US economic growth and generally positive corporate earnings, major stock indices and commodities ended the week lower. Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor inflation trends, interest rate expectations, geopolitical developments, and upcoming economic data. These factors will likely play a key role in shaping market direction and investor confidence in the coming weeks.