Gold Hits Yearly Low and USDJPY Tests 160 as Markets Brace for US PPI

The dollar’s rally rolled on for a third day as US bond markets reopened and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.1%. Gold fell more than 2.5% on Thursday to a year-to-date low near $3,855–3,865, USDJPY briefly crossed 160, and EURUSD and GBPUSD extended their slides. Oil moved the other way, with Brent back above $95 as hopes for a US–Iran deal faded. Markets now price roughly an 85% chance of a December Fed hike, and today’s US PPI is the week’s final inflation test.

The Dollar Index trades near 103.18, close to a 19-month high.

Data Recap and Today’s Calendar

Thursday’s results

US stocks closed about 0.4% lower after Nvidia announced that CEO Jensen Huang has stepped down, with CFO Colette Kress named interim CEO.

Today’s calendar

A hot PPI would reinforce a 50 bp December hike debate and extend the dollar rally; a soft print could trigger profit-taking into the weekend.

Gold (XAUUSD)

Gold dropped more than 2.5% on Thursday to a year-to-date low in the $3,855–3,865 area, taking out the previous $3,870 low. It has since bounced back to around $3,900, snapping a three-day losing streak.

Fundamentals

• Headwind: the US 10-year yield above 5.1% and a dollar near 19-month highs raise the cost of holding gold.

• Headwind: rising oil prices add to inflation fears and Fed hike expectations.

• Support: bargain buying at yearly lows and steady central-bank demand.

• Gold is down roughly $250 from Monday’s $4,150 high, about 6% in four sessions.

Technicals

• The trend is firmly bearish, with price below all major moving averages.

• Today’s rebound looks like an oversold bounce rather than a reversal.

Scenarios

• Bearish (base case): a hot PPI and a break below $3,855 expose $3,822.

• Bullish: a soft PPI and a recovery above $3,911 could extend the bounce toward $3,970.

Crude Oil (Brent / WTI)

Oil extended its rebound on Thursday, with Brent climbing back above $95 to around $95.40 and WTI near $88.50, as hopes of a US–Iran agreement faded. Despite the two-day bounce, both benchmarks are still on track for another weekly decline.

Fundamentals

• Bullish: the US is maintaining its blockade of Iran, and attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz remain a live supply risk.

• Bullish: fading diplomatic optimism is rebuilding part of the risk premium lost earlier in the month.

• Bearish: a strong dollar and high US yields weigh on dollar-priced commodities, and Brent remains well below its late-October high near $117–118.

• Next catalyst: Trump–Xi talks at the APEC summit on November 18–19.

Technicals

• WTI is testing resistance at $88.80–88.98; Brent has reclaimed $95, a level that capped it earlier in the week.

• Momentum has turned higher in the short term, but the broader trend since late October is still down.

Scenarios

• Bullish: a break above $88.98 WTI opens $90, with Brent then eyeing higher levels on fresh Gulf headlines.

• Bearish: a slip below $87.90 WTI would weaken momentum and point back toward Wednesday’s $86.53 settle.

EURUSD

EURUSD has slipped further to around 1.1053, extending Wednesday’s break below the 1.1115 range floor. The pair is now approaching the 1.1030 target flagged earlier this week.

Fundamentals

• The US 10-year yield above 5.1% keeps widening the rate gap with the eurozone, where the ECB deposit rate is 2.50%.

• Eurozone inflation of 4.0% and hawkish ECB signals offer little support while the Fed debate centres on 25 vs. 50 bp.

• European equities hit record highs on Thursday, showing that weakness is about the dollar, not eurozone risk sentiment.

Technicals

• The breakdown from the mid-October range has turned the structure clearly bearish.

• 1.1088 is the first level bulls need to reclaim; the old 1.1115 floor is now major resistance.

Scenarios

• Bearish (base case): a hot PPI and a break below 1.1031 open the 1.1000 psychological level.

• Bullish: a soft PPI could trigger a corrective bounce toward 1.1088.

USDJPY

USDJPY briefly crossed 160.00 on Thursday, its highest area since early September, and is now consolidating around 159.80–159.90. Traders are reluctant to push higher while Japanese officials warn against rapid, one-sided currency moves.

Fundamentals

• The US 10-year yield above 5.1% and an ~85% chance of a December Fed hike keep the rate gap with Japan (BoJ at 1.25%) wide.

• Official warnings from Tokyo are the main brake; actual intervention could knock several yen off the pair within minutes.

• A hot PPI would push yields higher and test officials’ resolve at 160.

Technicals

• The uptrend from September’s 152.90 low is intact, but price is stalling at the 160.00–160.14 resistance.

• The medium-term structure remains capped below the 163.99 peak.

Scenarios

• Bullish: a hot PPI and a daily close above 160.14 would signal a fresh leg higher, though intervention risk rises sharply.

• Bearish: verbal or actual intervention, or a soft PPI, could trigger a fast drop through 159.40 toward 159.11 and 158.00.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD has extended its losing streak to around 1.3228, even after UK Q3 GDP came in at +0.7% as expected. The in-line print gave sterling little reason to resist a dollar driven by rising US yields.

Fundamentals

• UK growth was driven mainly by services, and it keeps a second BoE hike in play after the move to 4.00% on November 5.

• The rate story still favours the dollar: an ~85% chance of a December Fed hike outweighs the BoE outlook.

• Next UK catalyst: CPI on November 18.

Technicals

• The pair has broken below the 1.3240 support flagged yesterday and is now down about 200 pips from Tuesday’s pre-CPI level.

• 1.3266 and 1.3300 are the levels bulls need to reclaim to ease pressure.

Scenarios

• Bearish (base case): a hot PPI and a break below 1.3205 open the October low at 1.3138.

• Bullish: a soft PPI could spark short covering toward 1.3266, then 1.3300.

Conclusion

The week’s inflation-driven dollar rally has pushed gold to a year-to-date low, taken USDJPY briefly through 160, and dragged EURUSD and GBPUSD to multi-week lows, while oil has rebounded on fading Iran diplomacy. Today’s US PPI is the final test before the weekend: a hot print would strengthen the case for a 50 bp Fed hike in December, while a soft one could spark profit-taking after a one-way week. With Nvidia’s leadership change unsettling tech stocks and Fed speakers Bowman and Jefferson on the schedule, expect volatility around 15:30 GMT+2.