Global Markets Weekly Recap: Rate Cuts, Inflation Surprises, and Earnings Shakeups 

The past week saw significant movements in global economic indicators, central bank decisions, and corporate earnings. Key events included interest rate cuts in Australia and New Zealand, inflation data from Canada and the UK, and employment updates from Australia and the US. PMI data highlighted economic divergence, with Germany showing modest growth while France and the UK faced contractions. Meanwhile, US business activity stalled amid rising costs and policy uncertainty.

In financial markets, crude oil and Brent oil prices dipped slightly, while gold and silver saw weekly gains. US stock indices fell sharply, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all posting losses. Corporate earnings reports saw mixed results, with Baidu’s revenue declining, Devon Energy beating estimates, and Alibaba missing earnings expectations despite revenue growth.

Tuesday, February 18

5:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

The Reserve Bank Board lowered the cash rate target to 4.10% and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances to 4.00%, citing moderating inflation and easing wage pressures. Underlying inflation fell to 3.2% in the December quarter, showing progress toward the 2–3% target range. However, strong labor market data and revised inflation forecasts for 2026 signal ongoing risks.

AUDUSD declined by 0.15%.

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% year-over-year in January, up from 1.8% in December, with energy prices—especially gasoline and natural gas—driving the increase. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 1.7%. However, food prices fell 0.6% annually, marking the first decline since 2017, led by a record 5.1% drop in restaurant food prices. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.1% in January, reversing December’s 0.4% decline.

The USDCAD exchange rate increased by 0.04%.

03:00 am – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)

New Zealand’s central bank cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 3.75 percent, its fourth consecutive reduction, as easing inflation allows for economic support. The move expected by economists brings rates to their lowest level since November 2022, with inflation at 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, near the central bank’s target range of 1 to 3 percent. Policy easing aims to boost the sluggish economy amid a broader decline in price growth.

NZDUSD ticked slightly higher by 0.01%.

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

The Consumer Prices Index, including owner occupiers’ housing costs, rose by 3.9 percent in the year to January 2025, up from 3.5 percent in December 2024. The Consumer Prices Index rose by 3.0 percent over the same period, increasing from 2.5 percent in December. Monthly CPI fell by 0.1 percent compared to a larger decline of 0.6 percent in January 2024.

The GBPUSD exchange rate decreased by 0.15%.

02:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Australia added 44 thousand jobs in January 2025, with full-time employment rising by 54 thousand and part-time jobs falling by 10 thousand. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.0 percent in trend terms and rose to 4.1 percent seasonally adjusted. The participation rate edged up to 67.3 percent, while underemployment remained at 6.0 percent.

The AUDUSD rose by 0.86%

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

In the week ending February 15, initial jobless claims rose by 5 thousand to 219 thousand while the four-week moving average declined slightly to 215 thousand. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2 percent with insured unemployment rising by 24 thousand to 1.87 million.

The EURUSD increased by 0.74%.

09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Retail sales volumes rose by 1.7 percent in January 2025, rebounding from a 0.6 percent decline in December. Food store sales saw strong growth after recent declines.

The GBPUSD exchange rate decreased by 0.32%.

10:15 am – France: Flash PMI (EUR)

The French economy saw its sharpest contraction since September 2023 in February 2025, driven by a steep decline in services while manufacturing output fell more slowly. Weak domestic demand led to one of the largest drops in new orders in five years. Businesses cut jobs at the fastest rate since August 2020 while rising costs limited pricing power. Economic uncertainty kept business sentiment subdued.

The EURUSD declined by 0.41%.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash PMI (EUR)

Germany’s private sector grew for a second month in February, with the HCOB Flash PMI reaching a nine-month high of 51.0. Services expanded while manufacturing saw a slower decline. New business stabilized, and employment dipped as service sector gains were offset by factory job losses. Inflation eased slightly but remained high. Business confidence softened due to tariff and geopolitical concerns.

The EURJPY edged lower by 0.77%.

11:30 am – UK: Flash PMI (GBP)

The UK private sector grew slightly in February 2025, with the PMI at 50.5, but saw the sharpest job cuts since November 2020. Services expanded modestly while manufacturing declined for a fourth month. New business fell at its fastest pace in eighteen months amid weak demand and budget cuts. Rising wages and supplier costs pushed inflation to a twenty-five-month high while business confidence remained fragile.

The GBPJPY exchange rate decreased by 0.68%.

16:45 – USA: Flash PMI (USD)

US business activity stalled in February 2025, with the PMI dropping to a 17-month low of 50.4. Services contracted while manufacturing grew due to tariff-related stockpiling. New orders weakened, and business confidence fell amid policy concerns. Rising costs pushed manufacturing inflation higher while service sector price increases slowed. Employment declined as firms cut jobs to offset rising costs and weak demand.

The USDJPY ticked lower by 0.36%

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices decreased by 0.44% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was down 0.38% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 1.85% weekly increase
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD increased by 0.94% from the last week

1. S&P 500 decreased by 1.62%
2. DJIA was down by 2.50%
3. NASDAQ 100 declined by 2.39%

1. MicroAlgo Inc. (MLGO) 393.02%
2. Jet.AI Inc. (JTAI) 155.43%
3. SRM Entertainment, Inc. (SRM) 121.34%

1. TEN Holdings, Inc. (XHLD) -78.68%
2. Aspire BioPharma, Inc. (ASBP) -76.41%
3. INLIF Limited (INLF) -73.03%

Tuesday, February 18: BIDU (Baidu, Inc.)
Tuesday, February 18: DVN (Devon Energy Corporation)
Thursday, February 20: BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Limited)

Baidu’s Q4 2024 revenue fell 2% to $4.68 billion, while AI Cloud grew 26%. Net income doubled to $711 million. Full-year revenue dipped 1% to $18.24 billion, with Baidu Core up 1% and iQIYI down 8%. Apollo Go surpassed 9 million rides, and Baidu returned over $1 billion to shareholders. The company remains focused on AI-driven growth in 2025.

BIDU shares saw a decrease of 6.36% compared to the previous week.

Devon Energy reported Q4 earnings of $1.16 per share, beating estimates by 16%. The next earnings release is expected on May 7, 2025, with projected earnings of $1.23 per share, a 6% year-over-year increase.

DVN shares rose by 8.23% from the previous week.

Alibaba reported Q3 2025 earnings of $2.77 per share, missing estimates by $0.07, while revenue exceeded expectations at $38.38 billion. The company has a trailing EPS of $6.92 and a P/E ratio of 20.76. Earnings are projected to grow 18.19% next year, reaching $9.29 per share.

BABA shares increased by 15.25% compared to the previous week.

The past week saw key central bank decisions, inflation data, and mixed corporate earnings. While Australia and New Zealand eased monetary policy, inflation remained a concern in Canada and the UK. PMI reports showed Germany’s modest growth contrasted with contractions in France and the UK.

Markets were volatile, with oil prices dipping, gold and silver rising, and major US stock indices declining. Baidu and Alibaba missed earnings expectations, while Devon Energy outperformed.

Looking ahead, economic trends, policy shifts, and corporate performance will shape market sentiment in the coming weeks.