The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for February 24 -28, 2025 

The upcoming week features key economic reports and corporate earnings that will provide insights into global economic trends and market conditions. From inflation data in Australia and Germany to GDP updates in the U.S. and Canada, these releases will help shape expectations for growth and monetary policy. Additionally, major companies like eBay, NVIDIA, and HP are set to report earnings, offering a closer look at corporate performance amid evolving economic conditions.

Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+2) – USA: CB Consumer Confidence (USD)
Wednesday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Prelim GDP q/q (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday All Day – Germany: German Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
Saturday 03:30 am (GMT+2) – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

17:00 – USA: CB Consumer Confidence (USD)
Consumer Confidence provides a comprehensive analysis of consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions. Published monthly, it examines consumer attitudes, spending intentions, vacation plans, and expectations surrounding inflation, stock prices, and interest rates. This data is valuable for businesses and policymakers to assess consumer behavior and predict economic trends.

U.S. consumer confidence dropped in January, with The Conference Board Index falling 5.4 points to 104.1. The Present Situation Index saw the biggest decline, reflecting weaker business and labor market conditions. Expectations also dipped but stayed above recession-warning levels. Confidence fell most among younger and higher-income consumers, while lower-income groups saw gains.

Economists anticipate a further drop to 103.3.

02:30 am – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of goods and services across various categories of household expenditures. This data provides insight into consumer price trends, helping assess the cost of living and inflationary pressures. The CPI is used by policymakers, including central banks, to guide decisions on monetary policy, such as interest rates, and by businesses to adjust pricing strategies and contracts linked to inflation.

The monthly CPI rose 2.5% in the year to December, driven by higher prices for food (+2.7%), alcohol and tobacco (+5.8%), and housing (+1.5%). A sharp drop in electricity prices (-17.9%) partly offset the increase.

Analysts anticipate that the upcoming release will indicate a modest increase to 2.6%.

15:30 – USA: Prelim GDP q/q (USD)

The Gross Domestic Product represents the value of all goods and services produced in the United States in the current quarter compared to the previous one.

GDP growth may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.3% in Q4 2024, slowing from 3.1% in Q3. Growth was driven by consumer and government spending, while investment declined. Imports fell, helping GDP. Inflation measures rose, with the PCE price index up 2.3%, reflecting stronger price pressures.

Analysts anticipate a reading of 2.3%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.

Weekly jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 214,000, while the four-week average fell to 215,250. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%, with insured unemployment increasing by 24,000 to 1.87 million. The four-week average for insured claims declined to 1.86 million.

Economists expect unemployment claims to increase by 220,000.

All Day – Germany: German Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)

Germany’s consumer price index (CPI) tracks average price changes for goods and services across all household types and regions, covering essentials like rent, food, clothing, vehicles, and services such as hairdressing and repairs. It is the Eurozone’s earliest major consumer inflation.

Germany’s inflation rate was 2.3% in January 2025, with consumer prices declining by 0.2% from December. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, stood at 2.9%.

Economists expect a reading of 0.4%

15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Gross Domestic Product is a key measure of the economic output of a country or region. It represents the total value of goods and services produced minus intermediate consumption like raw materials or components. GDP can be calculated using methods such as the value-added approach, which looks at the contribution of each sector to the economy. When GDP grows, it indicates economic expansion, while a slowdown or negative GDP may signal a recession. It’s used as a benchmark for the overall health of an economy.

Real GDP fell 0.2% in November, the largest drop since December 2023, following a 0.3% rise in October. Declines were broad-based, with 13 of 20 sectors contracting. Goods-producing industries shrank 0.6%, led by mining and utilities. Services edged down 0.1%, driven by declines in transportation and warehousing, though real estate activity helped limit the drop.

Analysts project a reading of 0.3%.

15:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Personal Consumption Expenditures measure the value of goods and services consumed by individuals and households. It’s a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large portion of economic activity in the US. The PCE is often used to track inflation trends, as it includes data on prices paid by consumers. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy decisions, aiming to maintain price stability in the economy.

The PCE price index increased by 0.3% from the previous month, while Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2%.

Economists forecast a reading of 0.3%.

03:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

China’s PMI is a monthly indicator of economic activity in China’s manufacturing sector, published by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It surveys 3,200 enterprises across various industries and regions, measuring key sub-indicators like output, new orders, and employment. A PMI reading above 50 indicates sector expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.

China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January, down one point from December, indicating a contraction in factory activity.

Analysts expect a reading of 50.0.

Wednesday, February 26: EBAY (eBay Inc.)
Wednesday, February 26: NVDA ( NVIDIA Corporation)
Thursday, February 27: HPQ ( HP Inc.)

The upcoming economic data and corporate earnings reports will provide valuable insights into the state of global markets, inflation trends, and economic growth. As policymakers and investors assess these indicators, the results could influence monetary policy decisions and market sentiment in the weeks ahead. With key reports from the U.S., Europe, Canada, and China, alongside earnings from major companies, this week will be crucial in shaping economic expectations moving forward.