Gold Shines Amid Key Economic Events and Geopolitical Tensions 

This week presents several important economic events across major global markets that could impact currency and commodity trading. Key data releases include Australia’s Employment Change, Europe’s Main Refinancing Rate decision, and the US Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims figures. Additionally, the UK will release its Retail Sales data, providing further insights into consumer spending trends.

In the commodities market, gold has been on a strong upward trajectory, driven by geopolitical tensions, declining interest rates, and robust central bank demand. Technical indicators suggest continued bullish momentum, with key resistance and support levels providing crucial points of interest for traders. These factors combined are expected to influence gold’s price movements in the coming days.

Thursday 03:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Thursday 15:15 (GMT+3) – Europe: Main Refinancing Rate (EUR)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: Retail Sales (GBP)

Gold has been on an upward trajectory since October 8, bouncing off the support level of $2,604.56 per troy ounce. This rise is driven by a mix of ongoing geopolitical tensions, declining interest rates, and strong demand from central banks. The rally is further validated by technical indicators. The 20-period EMA has crossed above the 50-period EMA, with prices trading above both, and both EMA lines are trending upward, suggesting continued momentum. Additionally, the Momentum oscillator has moved above the key 100-line, and the RSI has climbed past 50, both signaling increasing bullish pressure and supporting the positive outlook for gold. A decisive break above the swing high of $2,685.40 would signal a continuation of the bullish trend, potentially paving the way for further price appreciation.

Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:

2685.40: The initial resistance level is identified at 268540, which reflects the daily high marked on September 26.

2735.36: The second price target is seen at 2735.36, representing the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension derived from the swing high of 2685.40 and the swing low of 2604.56.

2816.20: The third price objective is established at 2816.20, which aligns with the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing high of 2685.40 to the swing low of 2604.56.

2947.00: An additional price target is set at 2947.00, representing the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension derived from the swing high of 2685.40 and the swing low of 2604.56.

Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:

2640.72: The initial support level is established at 2640.72, reflecting the weekly Pivot Point calculated using the standard methodology.

2604.56: The second support level is identified at 2604.56, representing the swing low from October 8.

2584.04: The third support level is seen at 2584.04, corresponding to a weekly support S2, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

2531.53: An additional downside target is noted at 2531.53, reflecting a peak formed on August 20.

Gold prices are expected to keep rising due to several key factors. These include the fact that, even after adjusting for inflation, gold prices are still below their historical peak. Additionally, central banks continue to show strong demand, falling interest rates make gold more attractive, and investor interest remains low, leaving room for growth. Ongoing geopolitical tensions further support gold’s role as a safe-haven asset, suggesting it still has significant potential for future gains.

In conclusion, this week’s key economic events, including employment data, interest rate decisions, and retail sales figures, will play a significant role in shaping market movements across currencies and commodities. Gold, in particular, continues its upward trend, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, declining interest rates, and strong central bank demand. Technical analysis supports further bullish momentum, with traders closely watching critical resistance and support levels. These factors collectively suggest that the upcoming data releases and gold’s technical outlook will provide important cues for market participants in the days ahead.