Markets Balance Optimism and Challenges: A Mixed Week in Review

Last week featured mixed economic and corporate trends. US consumer confidence rose, Germany’s stable inflation supported ECB rate cut prospects, and China’s factory activity showed a modest recovery. Oil and gold prices fell while the S&P 500 and DJIA gained. Earnings were mixed, with HP and Dell underperforming and Analog Devices showing resilience. Markets remain cautiously optimistic.

Tuesday, November 26
15:00 – USA: CB Consumer Confidence (USD)
Consumer confidence rose to 111.7, driven by labor market optimism and eased inflation fears. Stock market optimism hit a record while recession concerns fell. The top concerns for 2025 remain high prices and taxes.
The EURUSD exchange decreased by 0.11% from the previous trading session.

02:30 am – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)
The CPI rose 2.1% annually, unchanged from September. Excluding volatile items and holiday travel, it slowed to 2.4%.
The AUDUSD exchange increased by 0.54% from the previous trading session.

3:00 am – New Zealand: Official Cash Rate (NZD)
The Monetary Policy Committee cut the OCR by 50 basis points to 4.25% as inflation nears the target midpoint. Subdued economic activity and lower import prices have eased inflation pressures. Growth is expected to recover in 2025, with further OCR cuts likely if conditions align.
The NZDUSD increased 1.17%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
For the week ending November 23, initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 213,000, with the 4-week average falling slightly to 217,000. Insured unemployment remained at 1.3% for the week ending November 16, with 1.91 million claims, the highest since November 2021. The 4-week average for insured unemployment also rose to 1.89 million, reflecting a gradual increase in claims.
The EURUSD price increased by 0.8% compared to the previous day’s close.

17:00 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
In October 2024, personal income rose 0.6%, disposable income increased 0.7%, and consumer spending grew 0.4%. The PCE price index rose 0.2%, with core PCE up 0.3%, reflecting annual increases of 2.3% and 2.8%, respectively. The savings rate was 4.4%, with $962.7 billion in total savings. Spending increased on services, especially healthcare, while goods spending declined due to lower energy costs. Revised data provided updated insights into prior months.
The USDJPY was down 1.3% compared to the previous day’s close.

All Day – Europe: German Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)
German inflation stayed at 2.4% in November, below forecasts, as lower food prices offset energy effects. The data supports expectations for an ECB rate cut in December, though officials remain divided over further reductions. Underlying inflation rose to 3%, with services prices up 4%, driven by labor costs. Inflation is expected to ease by spring 2025.
The EURUSD exchange rate ticked lower by 0.09% from the previous day.

15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Real GDP grew by 0.3% in Q3 2024, down from 0.5% in the previous quarters. Growth was driven by household and government spending but offset by slower inventory buildup, reduced business investment, and lower exports. On a per capita basis, GDP declined 0.4%, marking six consecutive quarterly decreases.
The USDCAD price decreased 0.09% compared to the previous day’s close.

3:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in November, signaling a modest recovery after stimulus measures. However, non-manufacturing activity stalled at 50, and the 2025 outlook remains uncertain due to trade tensions and fiscal policy risks.

Crude Oil

• Crude oil prices decreased by 4.23% over the past week

Brent Oil

• Brent decreased by 4.02% compared to the previous week

Gold

• The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 2.41% weekly decline

Silver

• XAGUSD decreased by 2.3% from the previous week

• S&P 500 increased by 0.95%
• DJIA was up by 1.27%
• NASDAQ 100 increased by 0.51%

• ZenaTech, Inc. (ZENA) 394.41%
• Unusual Machines, Inc (UMAC) 325.68%
• Poseida Therapeutics, Inc. (PSTX) 241.03%

• Cassava Sciences, Inc. (SAVA) -85.50%
• Primega Group Holdings Limited (PGHL) -80.59%
• Applied Therapeutics, Inc. (APLT) -78.91%

Tuesday, November 26: HP Inc. (HPQ)
Tuesday, November 26: Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)
Tuesday, November 26: Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI)

HP Inc. reported Q4 fiscal 2024 earnings of $0.93 per share, missing estimates by 1.1% but rising 3.3% year-over-year. Revenue grew 1.7% to $14.06 billion, slightly below expectations. Despite a 30% year-to-date stock gain, shares dropped 7.44% after hours on weak results and soft guidance for Q1 and fiscal 2025, potentially pressuring the stock further.

HPQ shares price decreased by 7.08% from the previous week.

Dell Technologies reported a 10% revenue increase and 12% higher operating earnings in Q3, but lower free cash flow margins disappointed investors, leading to a 12% drop in stock price. Unusual call option activity suggests optimism for a near-term rebound, with analysts maintaining higher price targets, averaging $149 to $156 per share. However, volatility and speculative risks remain, and recovery may take time to materialize.

DELL shares decreased by 11.52%.

Analog Devices (ADI) posted Q4 revenue of $2.44 billion, down 10% year-over-year but up 6% sequentially. Full-year free cash flow margins improved to 33%. Strength in the automotive sector and R&D investments boosted growth prospects, though industrial and communications revenue declined. ADI expects a gradual recovery in 2025, with Q1 revenue guidance at $2.35 billion and EPS at $1.53.

ADI shares ticked higher by 1.61% from the previous week.

Last week showcased a mixed economic and corporate landscape, reflecting both resilience and challenges. Economic data highlighted optimism in US consumer confidence and China’s modest recovery, while stable inflation in Germany supported expectations for ECB rate cuts. Corporate earnings were a mixed bag, with HP and Dell underperforming, while Analog Devices displayed sectoral strength. Markets remained cautiously optimistic despite declines in commodities like oil and gold, with the S&P 500 and DJIA posting gains. As the year closes, economic and market dynamics suggest a watchful yet hopeful outlook for the months ahead.